Markus Haavio

House price fluctuations and residential sorting

Empirical evidence suggests that local jurisdictions are internally more heterogeneous than standard sorting models predict. We develop a dynamic multi-region model, with fluctuating regional house prices, where an owner-occupying household’s location choice depends on its current wealth and its current ‘match’ and involves both consumption and investment considerations. The relative weights of the consumption and investment motives in the location choice determine the equilibrium pattern of residential sorting, with a strong investment (consumption) motive implying sorting according to match (wealth). The model predicts a negative relation between size of house price fluctuations and residential sorting in the match dimension. Also movers should be more sorted than stayers. These predictions are consistent with evidence from US metropolitan areas when income, age and education are used as proxies for the match.

Kiss Me Deadly: From Finnish Great Depression to Great Recession

We investigate the causes of the Finnish Great Depression, 1990-1993. We find that the collapse of the overheated financial and banking sectors starting in 1989 was the trigger of the economic crisis. Foreign shocks, which include the collapse of trade with USSR in 1991, can account for at most about half of the slump, and these shocks occurred only when the economy was already in free fall. Also, the deleveraging and restructuring process of the financial system substantially prolonged the subsequent recovery. Our methodology involves estimating a structural VAR model with sign and exogeneity restrictions. Importantly, we are able to distinguish between financial shocks affecting the demand for intermediated loans and those shifting the loan supply curve. Hence we also contribute to the discussion on which financial shocks actually matter. Keywords: business cycles, great depressions, financial shocks, sign restrictions, Finland

Housing Markets, Liquidity Constraints and Labor Mobility

Recent European data indicate that countries where a large proportion of the population lives in owner-occupied housing are experiencing higher unemployment rates than countries where the majority of people live in private rental housing, which might suggest that rental housing enhances labor mobility. In this paper, we develop a simple intertemporal two-region model that allows us to compare owner-occupied housing markets to rental markets and to analyze how these alternative arrangements allocate people in space and time. Consistent with the empirical observations, we find that the interregional labor market is more fluid under rental housing than under owner-occupation. As a result of greater mobility, the rental arrangement also results in better allocational efficiency than owner-occupation. When dwellings are rented, the decision to move to a booming region is largely based on current productivity, whereas under owner-occupation random wealth effects encourage deviations from this optimal behavior.

Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries

This article empirically studies the linkages between financial variable downturns and economic recessions. We present evidence that real asset prices tend to lead real cycles, while loan-to-GDP and loan-to-deposit ratios lag them. Using a probit anaylsis, we document that downturns in real asset prices, particularly real house prices, are useful leading indicators of economic recessions.

Owner-Occupied Housing as an Investment, Regional House Price Cycles and Residential Sorting

We develop a dynamic multi-region model, with fluctuating regional house prices, where an owner-occupied household’s location choice depends on its current wealth and its current type and involves both consumption and investment considerations. The relative strength of the consumption motive and the investment motive in the location choice determines the equilibrium pattern of residential sorting, with a strong investment (consumption) motive implying sorting according to the type (wealth). The model predicts a negative relation between the size of house price fluctuations and the degree of residential sorting in the type dimension. Also, movers should be more sorted than stayers in the type dimension. These predictions are consistent with evidence from US metropolitan areas when income, education and age are used as proxies for household type.

Buying a Home with a Resale Value: Location, Location, Location

We develop a dynamic multiregion model, where a households choice of housing location depends on its current wealth and its current type, and involves both consumption and investment considerations. The relative strength of the consumption motive and the investment motive determines the equilibrium pattern of residential sorting. A strong investment (consumption) motive implies sorting according to household type (wealth). The model predicts that large house‐price fluctuations are associated with a low degree of sorting by type. This prediction is consistent with evidence from US metropolitan areas when income, education, and age are used as proxies for household type.