Markus J. Peterson

INVITED PAPER: INFORMATION THEORY IN WILDLIFE SCIENCE: CRITIQUE AND VIEWPOINT

Abstract We question whether the growing popularity of model selection based on information theory (IT) and using the Akaikes Information Criterion (AIC) represent a useful paradigm shift in data analysis or a substitution of 1 statistical ritual for another, which leaves in place long-standing problems in wildlife science. We discuss the relevance of model selection in science, problems in the IT-AIC algorithm, errors of commission and omission in IT-AIC-based studies, and the role of IT-AIC in knowledge accrual. Model selection is just another minor tool in the grand panorama of science. The human mind, not statistical methods, produces scientific breakthroughs. Although IT-AIC might include elements of hypothetico-deductive science, it is arguably a form of sensitivity analysis, magnitude of effects estimation, or simple description as currently applied. Accordingly, it is largely an inductive approach to knowledge accrual and, therefore, subject to the pitfalls of induction. The algorithm tends to over fit data (i.e, use too many variables), resulting in models that contain useless variables and that generalize poorly. Errors of commission in IT-AIC-based papers include hopelessly uninformative lists of encrypted models and imposition of the model-selection approach on studies better executed in a simple, descriptive format. The major error of omission is an almost universal failure to test selected models on independent data. From our perspective, IT-AIC is a harmless human construct that is being ritualistically applied and therefore cannot be expected to correct long-standing problems in the conduct of wildlife science, such as failure to apply the hypothetico-deductive method. We view the growing application of IT-AIC as problematic because that growth might discourage use of the full panoply of available methods of inquiry. Accordingly, we urge colleagues to avail themselves of the rich pageant of available analytical techniques that can be applied in wildlife research under the hypothetico-deductive method and to keep ecology, rather than statistics, in the forefront of wildlife science.

Obscuring ecosystem function with application of the ecosystem services concept.

Conservationists commonly have framed ecological concerns in economic terms to garner political support for conservation and to increase public interest in preserving global biodiversity. Beginning in the early 1980s, conservation biologists adapted neoliberal economics to reframe ecosystem functions and related biodiversity as ecosystem services to humanity. Despite the economic success of programs such as the Catskill/Delaware watershed management plan in the United States and the creation of global carbon exchanges, todays marketplace often fails to adequately protect biodiversity. We used a Marxist critique to explain one reason for this failure and to suggest a possible, if partial, response. Reframing ecosystem functions as economic services does not address the political problem of commodification. Just as it obscures the labor of human workers, commodification obscures the importance of the biota (ecosystem workers) and related abiotic factors that contribute to ecosystem functions. This erasure of work done by ecosystems impedes public understanding of biodiversity. Odum and Odums radical suggestion to use the language of ecosystems (i.e., emergy or energy memory) to describe economies, rather than using the language of economics (i.e., services) to describe ecosystems, reverses this erasure of the ecosystem worker. Considering the current dominance of economic forces, however, implementing such solutions would require social changes similar in magnitude to those that occurred during the 1960s. Niklas Luhmann argues that such substantive, yet rapid, social change requires synergy among multiple societal function systems (i.e., economy, education, law, politics, religion, science), rather than reliance on a single social sphere, such as the economy. Explicitly presenting ecosystem services as discreet and incomplete aspects of ecosystem functions not only allows potential economic and environmental benefits associated with ecosystem services, but also enables the social and political changes required to ensure valuation of ecosystem functions and related biodiversity in ways beyond their measurement on an economic scale.

The northern bobwhite decline: scaling our management for the twenty-first century

Abstract Northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) are one of the most broadly researched and intensively managed species in North America. However, we argue that a disadvantage of this status is that traditional management principles currently are incompatible with the spatial scale necessary to address the nationwide decline in bobwhite abundance. We maintain that halting or reversing this decline will entail 2 principal changes in the scale of management. Primarily we suggest that habitat oversight must switch from historical fine-scale management (promotion of edge habitat, weedy fencelines, disked strips, living hedges, and food plots) to regional management of usable space. Secondly, within these regional management areas, we should apply harvest management that employs risk-sensitive strategies that conservatively avoid undermining the primary goal. This entails narrowing the scale of harvest management from statewide to regional levels. If these ideological changes cannot be made and historical policies remain in force, we risk failing to stabilize, let alone increase, bobwhite populations.

Estimating Bobcat Abundance Using Automatically Triggered Cameras

Abstract Ineffective survey methods of carnivores limit the ability of managers and researchers to make sound research conclusions and management recommendations. Because bobcats (Lynx rufus) are individually identifiable due to their unique coat patterns, it may be possible to obtain density estimates using capture–recapture models. We photo-trapped bobcats on the 3,156-ha Welder Wildlife Foundation Refuge in southern Texas from September 2000 through August 2001 to determine whether automatically triggered cameras could produce reliable estimates of bobcat density. Using the Schumacher-Eschmeyer estimator, we obtained an abundance estimate of 15 individuals (95% CI = 13.6–16.7) from 56 bobcat photographs. Our estimate was comparable to bobcat densities previously reported on our study area. This technique has the potential to provide wildlife managers and researchers with reliable data on bobcat abundance not previously available without the expense of physical capture and radiotelemetry. Our relatively high photographic success might be attributable to the dense chaparral-type vegetation and the large network of travel pathways available on our study area. These methods may not be as successful in open areas or where bobcat travel is not predictable. We encourage replication of this technique elsewhere in bobcat range where density, vegetation, and travel pathways differ.

The fall of the null hypothesis: Liabilities and opportunities

The collapse of null hypothesis significance testing as a statistical paradigm has created liabilities and opportunities in wildlife science. One liability is that some formalism for statistical hypothesis testing, such as likelihood with information theory, will simply replace null hypothesis significance testing as a rote approach to wildlife science. The principal intellectual instrument of the scientist remains the research hypothesis, not the statistical hypothesis. Accordingly, 1 opportunity arising from a change of statistical paradigms is that the research hypothesis will move to the foreground of wildlife science, the statistical hypothesis to the background. A second opportunity is a broadening of the suite of inferential methods considered orthodox in wildlife science. Realization of these opportunities should help wildlife scientists resist the social tendency to allow tools (means, statistical models) to supplant the search for reliable knowledge (end) as the benchmark of scientific endeavor. Science of the highest order, including virtually all discoveries that humankind extols today, is possible without the statistical hypothesis, but not without the research hypothesis.

Cultural Conflict and the Endangered Florida Key Deer

Conflict regarding the conservation and preservation of natural resources is among the greatest challenges of the 21st century. Given that management of natural resources increasingly depends on securing cooperation of culturally diverse groups of people, it is important to understand how to secure that cooperation. Endangered species management on private lands both typifies and magnifies the environmental conflicts encountered by natural resource policy makers and managers. Using an ethnographic approach, we analyzed the conflict surrounding management of the endangered Florida Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium) to explore how conflict and moral culture apply to natural resource policy formation and implementation. We found disputants on Big Pine Key divided into 2 moral cultures-1 grounded in stewardship and the other in private property rights. These moral cultures augmented the conflict by perpetuating divergent ethical perspectives and aspirations. The conflict then escalated through de-individualization, dehumanization, and demonization of those informed by the opposing moral culture. Finally, as typically occurs with serious conflicts, incompatible frames of reference created by the cultural divide not only prevented rapid de-escalation but promoted conflict-reinforcing mechanisms such as selective perception and judgment, moral exclusion, and rationalization, which led to communication breakdown and autistic hostility. Temporary solutions to superficial problems that were maladapted to conflicts involving moral culture did not ameliorate conditions and often exacerbated them. In emotionally charged decision-making venues, wildlife managers should take a proactive approach designed to encourage collaborative development of common ground among disputants. When conflicts reach a highly escalated state, as many inevitably will, their resolution will require meeting appropriate pre-negotiation conditions, then applying strategies that respond to both the level of escalation and the moral cultures involved in the particular conflict.

Differential Influence of Weather on Regional Quail Abundance in Texas

Although weather variables are known to influence quail abundance in some habitats, most studies have addressed only limited geographic areas and indices to weather conditions. The few replicated studies addressed relatively similar climate zones. We used 21 years (1978-98) of quail abundance data collected by the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) biologists to address the relationship between both simple precipitation and Palmer drought indices and Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and Scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) abundance in 6 ecological regions of Texas. Three 12-month Palmer indices were more highly correlated with changes in Northern Bobwhite abundance in the South Texas Plains ecological region than was raw precipitation alone. The 12-month Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (PMDI) was correlated (r s ≥ 0.78, P ≤ 0.001) with the mean number of Northern Bobwhites visually observed per survey route in the Rolling and South Texas Plains ecological regions, while a 12-month, raw precipitation index was correlated (r s = 0.64, P = 0.002) with Northern Bobwhite abundance in only the South Texas Plains. The PMDI and raw precipitation were correlated (r s ≥ 0.67, P ≥ 0.001 and r s ≤ 0.57, P ≤ 0.007, respectively) with the mean number Scaled Quail observed per survey route in the Edwards Plateau, South Texas Plains, and Trans-Pecos Mountains and Basins ecological regions. There was no relationship (P ≥ 0.437) between changes in quail abundance and the PMDI or raw precipitation in the Gulf Prairies and Marshes physiographic region, where precipitation was relatively high. The monthly PMDI was a better indicator of changes in both northern bobwhite and Scaled Quail abundance among years than was monthly precipitation alone. Both monthly and 12-month precipitation-based weather indices were more correlated with changes in Northern Bobwhite and scaled quail abundance among years in relatively dry as opposed to wet ecological regions. Our approach should help wildlife biologists and managers better account for annual variability in quail productivity in semi-arid environments so that long-term populations trends can be better elucidated.

HABITAT‐USE PATTERNS OF FLORIDA KEY DEER: IMPLICATIONS OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT

Abstract Urban development in the Florida Keys, USA, mandates an understanding of how habitat requirements for Florida Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium) interact with vegetation changes caused by development. Our study objectives were to (1) determine Key deer habitat use at different spatial scales, (2) evaluate vegetation changes and identify vegetation types most threatened by development, and (3) provide guidelines to direct land acquisition programs in the future. We identified 6 vegetation types: pineland, hammock, developed, freshwater marsh, buttonwood, and mangrove. Key deer (n = 180; 84 F, 96 M) preferred upland vegetation types (>1 m above mean sea level; pineland, hammock, developed) and avoided tidal or lower-elevation areas (<1 m above mean sea level; freshwater marsh, buttonwood, mangrove). Analyses of Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages suggested that historical development impacted near-shore habitats while recent trends pose a greater risk to upland areas (pineland, hammock). Because uplands are preferred by Key deer, conservation measures that include land acquisition and habitat protection of these areas may be needed.

Multiyear surveillance for avian influenza virus in waterfowl from wintering grounds, Texas coast, USA.

This surveillance can help in assessments of the prevalence of wild animal-to-human transmission.

A TALE OF TWO SPECIES: HABITAT CONSERVATION PLANS AS BOUNDED CONFLICT

Abstract Worldwide human population expansion and rising standards of living place increasing pressure on wildlife populations and their habitats. Conflict regarding conservation and preservation of endangered species is among the greatest challenges of the 21st century. Endangered species management on private lands magnifies the problems encountered by natural resource policy-makers and managers. Given that conservation of endangered species increasingly depends on securing cooperation of private property owners in local communities, understanding how to secure that cooperation is important. We used an ethnographic approach to critically review the Habitat Conservation Plan (HCP) processes used in attempts to develop regional HCPs to benefit the Houston toad (Bufo houstonensis) and the Florida Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium; hereafter, Key deer). In both cases, the process was framed as a search for the optimum solution through collaboration and consensus building, and in neither case was the solution achieved. The paradoxical nature of liberal democracy precluded the possibility of a single, ideal solution. Failing to find the optimal solution led to disillusionment and pessimism with the process among HCP participants. We suggest that within democratic political contexts, approaches to conservation planning that center around bounded conflict, which is rooted in acknowledgment of the paradox inherent to the ideals of liberty and equality, are more likely to produce satisfactory results than are consensus-based approaches.