Marta Domínguez-Delmás

Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

Significance Twenty-first-century North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) projections are crucial for the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies, but they are subject to large uncertainties, particularly with respect to TC response to radiative forcing. We used a combination of tree-ring data and historical shipwreck data to show that TC activity in the Caribbean was distinctly suppressed during the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 CE), a period when solar irradiance was severely reduced. This solar fingerprint on decadal-scale Caribbean TC variability implies modulation by a combination of basin-wide climatic phenomena. Our findings highlight the need to enhance our understanding of the response of atmospheric circulation patterns to radiative forcing and climate change to improve the skill of future TC projections. Assessing the impact of future climate change on North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of crucial societal importance, but the limited quantity and quality of observational records interferes with the skill of future TC projections. In particular, North Atlantic TC response to radiative forcing is poorly understood and creates the dominant source of uncertainty for twenty-first-century projections. Here, we study TC variability in the Caribbean during the Maunder Minimum (MM; 1645–1715 CE), a period defined by the most severe reduction in solar irradiance in documented history (1610–present). For this purpose, we combine a documentary time series of Spanish shipwrecks in the Caribbean (1495–1825 CE) with a tree-growth suppression chronology from the Florida Keys (1707–2009 CE). We find a 75% reduction in decadal-scale Caribbean TC activity during the MM, which suggests modulation of the influence of reduced solar irradiance by the cumulative effect of cool North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, El Niño–like conditions, and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our results emphasize the need to enhance our understanding of the response of these oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns to radiative forcing and climate change to improve the skill of future TC projections.

Dendro-archeo-ecology in North America and Europe: Re-purposing Historical Materials to Study Ancient Human-Environment Interactions

The unique position of dendrochronology at the nexus of archeology, ecology, and climatology allows it to play a pivotal role in the study of past human-environment interactions. Yet, few tree-ring studies in Europe and eastern North America have been used to study pre-industrial land-use changes, forest ecology, and carbon dynamics and thus to constrain the uncertainties surrounding the Early Anthropocene hypothesis (Ruddiman Clim Chang 61:261–293, 2003; Rev Geophys 45(4):RG4001, 2007). Here, we discuss the potential of dendro-archeo-ecology—the use of dendroarcheological material in the study of forest ecology—to document past human land-use and forest alteration, which started in the Neolithic Era (∼12,000–4000 BP) in Europe and after European immigration into eastern North America in the 1620s. In this context, we focus on the dendro-archeo-ecology of (1) Neolithic pile dwellings in the Euro-Mediterranean region and (2) old-growth forest dynamics in eastern North America. We discuss recurring challenges (e.g., low sample depth, short series length) and uncertainties (e.g., species and tree size bias) related to the use of (pre)historic timbers for ecological purposes that need to be carefully addressed. We advocate for a concerted effort to move the use of dendro-archeological material from strictly archeological applications towards exploration of its ecological potential and for a close alliance of dendrochronology with related disciplines that aim to address the same subjects.

Selecting and Sampling Shipwreck Timbers for Dendrochronological Research: practical guidance: SAMPLING SHIPWRECK TIMBERS FOR DENDROCHRONOLOGY

In this article, we provide practical and straightforward guidance for the selection and sampling of shipwreck timbers for dendrochronological research. We outline sampling strategies and present informative figures that illustrate how to proceed in a variety of scenarios that archaeologists regularly encounter. However, in order to fully exploit the potential of tree-ring research on these objects, we would urge archaeologists to involve dendrochronologists during the project planning phase to carefully plan and conduct adequate sampling of shipwreck assemblages.