Marta Yebra

Integrating geospatial information into fire risk assessment

Fire risk assessment should take into account the most relevant components associated to fire occurrence. To estimate when and where the fire will produce undesired effects, we need to model both (a) fire ignition and propagation potential and (b) fire vulnerability. Following these ideas, a comprehensive fire risk assessment system is proposed in this paper,whichmakesextensiveuseofgeographicinformationtechnologiestoofferaspatiallyexplicitevaluationoffirerisk conditions. The paper first describes the conceptual model, then the methods to generate the different input variables, the approachestomergethosevariablesintosyntheticriskindicesandfinallythevalidationoftheoutputs.Themodelhasbeen applied at a national level for the whole Spanish Iberian territory at 1-km 2 spatial resolution. Fire danger included human factors, lightning probability, fuel moisture content of both dead and live fuels and propagation potential. Fire vulnerability was assessed by analysing values-at-risk and landscape resilience. Each input variable included a particular accuracy assessment, whereas the synthetic indices were validated using the most recent fire statistics available. Significant relations (P,0.001) with fire occurrence were found for the main synthetic danger indices, particularly for those associated to fuel moisture content conditions.

Prediction of fire occurrence from live fuel moisture content measurements in a Mediterranean ecosystem

The present paper presents and discusses the relationships between live Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) measurements and fire occurrence (number of fires and burned area) in a Mediterranean area of central Spain. Grasslands and four shrub species (Cistus ladanifer L., Rosmarinus officinalis L., Erica australis L. and Phillyrea angustifolia L.) were sampled in the field from the spring to the summer season over a 9-year period. Higher seasonal FMC variability was found for the herbaceous species than for shrubs, as grasslands have very low values in summertime. Moisture variations of grasslands were found to be good predictors of number of fires and total burned surface, while moisture variation of two shrubs (C. ladanifer L. and R. officinalis L.) was more sensitive to both the total burned area and the occurrence of large fires. All these species showed significant differences between the FMC of high and low occurrence periods. Three different logistic regression models were built for the 202 periods of analysis: one to predict periods with more and less than seven fires, another to predict periods with and without large fires (>500 ha), and the third to predict periods with more and less than 200 ha burned. The results showed accuracy in predicting periods with a high number of fires (94%), and extensive burned area (85%), with less accuracy in estimating periods with large fires (58%). Finally, empirical functions based on logistic regression analysis were successfully related to fire ignition or potential burned area from FMC data. These models should be useful to integrate FMC measurements with other variables of fire danger (ignition causes, for instance), to provide a more comprehensive assessment of fire danger conditions.

Estimation of dry matter content in leaves using normalized indexes and PROSPECT model inversion

This work applies remote sensing techniques to estimate dry matter (DM) content in tree leaves. Two methods were used to estimate DM content: a normalized index obtained from the radiative transfer model (RTM) leaf optical properties spectra (PROSPECT) in direct mode and the inversion of the PROSPECT model. The data were obtained from the Leaf Optical Properties Experiment 93 (LOPEX93) database, and only 11 species were used in this study. The species selection was based mainly on the availability of data on fresh and dry samples. The estimation of DM content was obtained from an exponential function that correlated the values of the index proposed, (R2305 − R1495)/(R2305 + R1495), against the DM content of fresh and dry leaf samples. The determination coefficient obtained (r 2 = 0.672) was higher than the coefficient obtained from the inversion of the PROSPECT model (r 2 = 0.507). The data set used to validate the normalized index was provided by the Accelerated Canopy Chemistry Program (ACCP). The determination coefficient between the values obtained from ACCP data and the values estimated for the normalized index was r 2 = 0.767.

Generation of a Species-Specific Look-Up Table for Fuel Moisture Content Assessment

This study involved the generation of a species-specific Look-Up Table (LUT) for the retrieval of Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) in natural areas dominated by Quercus ilex (Holm oak). Parameter combinations observed in drying Q. ilex samples were used as inputs into the linked PROSPECT and SAILH Radiative Transfer Models (RTM) to avoid unrealistic simulated spectra in the LUT. Terra/MODIS reflectance data, extracted over five plots dominated by Q. ilex, were used to carry out the LUT inversion. This inversion was based on the search for the minimum relative root mean square error (RMSErho*) between observed and simulated reflectance found in the LUT. Different inversion options were tested in order to search for the optimal spectral sampling necessary for accurately estimating FMC. The minimum number of solutions required for the calculation of the estimated FMC was also investigated. The retrieval performance was evaluated with FMC values measured at the five study plots. The most accurate FMC estimation was obtained when using the normalized difference infrared index (NDII6 ) and selecting the ten best cases as the solution (RMSE=26.28%). Finally, a non-oak-specific LUT (generic LUT) was used in the same way to evaluate whether or not the species-specific LUT retrieved FMC more accurately. The results showed that the species-specific LUT provided more accurate FMC estimations than the generic LUT. Only when the number of solutions was higher than 35 was the accuracy of the two LUT similar. Future work will focus on the possibility of generating a LUT adapted to a wider range of species based on data extracted from field measurements and literature.

Estimation of Fuel Conditions for Fire Danger Assessment

A review of physical and chemical properties of fuels relevant for fire ignition and propagation is presented, along with different methods to estimate those properties, with special emphasis on satellite imagery. The discussion is more extended on estimating fuel moisture trends and fuel geometrical properties.

Estimating fire severity and carbon emissions over Australian tropical savannahs based on passive microwave satellite observations

ABSTRACT We investigated the use of a recently developed satellite-based vegetation optical depth (VOD) data set to estimate fire severity and carbon emission over Australian tropical savannahs. VOD is sensitive to the dynamics of all aboveground vegetation and available nearly every two days. For areas burned during 2003–2010, we calculated the VOD change (ΔVOD) pre- and post-fire and the associated loss in the above ground biomass carbon. ΔVOD agreed well with the Normalized Burn Ratio change (ΔNBR) which is the metric used to estimate fire severity and carbon loss compared well with modelled emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). We found that the ΔVOD and ΔNBR are generally linearly related. The Pearson correlation coefficients (r) between VOD- and GFED-based fire carbon emissions for monthly and annual total estimates are very high, 0.92 and 0.96, respectively. A key feature of fire carbon emissions is the strong inter-annual variation, ranging from 21.1 Mt in 2010 to 84.3 Mt in 2004. This study demonstrates that a reasonable estimate of fire severity and carbon emissions can be achieved in a timely manner based on multiple satellite observations over Australian tropical savannahs, which can be complementary to the currently used approaches.

Using alternative soil moisture estimates in the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index

McArthur’s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) incorporates the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI) estimate of soil dryness. Improved approaches for estimating soil moisture now exist, with potential for informing the calculation of FFDI. We evaluated the effect, compared with KBDI, of two alternative methods of estimating soil moisture: the rainfall-based Antecedent Precipitation Index and soil moisture from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity satellite mission. These methods were used to calculate FFDI over a sample period of 5years (2010–14) at seven locations around Australia. The effect of substituting the alternatives for KBDI, and of entirely replacing the Drought Factor (DF) (a measure of fuel availability in FFDI) with the alternatives was explored by studying the effect on magnitude, distribution and timing of FFDI and associated Fire Danger Rating (FDR). Both approaches predicted drier soil conditions than KBDI, resulting in fewer Low–Moderate FDR days and more days of High FDR and above. The alternative methods replacing KBDI had little effect on seasonal patterns of FDR. Of all approaches, replacing DF entirely with the soil moisture alternatives most closely mimicked McArthur’s FFDI. Overall, if alternative measures of soil moisture are adopted for FFDI, the entire replacement of the DF term should be considered.

Strata-based forest fuel classification for wild fire hazard assessment using terrestrial LiDAR

Abstract. Fuel structural characteristics affect fire behavior including fire intensity, spread rate, flame structure, and duration, therefore, quantifying forest fuel structure has significance in understanding fire behavior as well as providing information for fire management activities (e.g., planned burns, suppression, fuel hazard assessment, and fuel treatment). This paper presents a method of forest fuel strata classification with an integration between terrestrial light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data and geographic information system for automatically assessing forest fuel structural characteristics (e.g., fuel horizontal continuity and vertical arrangement). The accuracy of fuel description derived from terrestrial LiDAR scanning (TLS) data was assessed by field measured surface fuel depth and fuel percentage covers at distinct vertical layers. The comparison of TLS-derived depth and percentage cover at surface fuel layer with the field measurements produced root mean square error values of 1.1 cm and 5.4%, respectively. TLS-derived percentage cover explained 92% of the variation in percentage cover at all fuel layers of the entire dataset. The outcome indicated TLS-derived fuel characteristics are strongly consistent with field measured values. TLS can be used to efficiently and consistently classify forest vertical layers to provide more precise information for forest fuel hazard assessment and surface fuel load estimation in order to assist forest fuels management and fire-related operational activities. It can also be beneficial for mapping forest habitat, wildlife conservation, and ecosystem management.

Retrieval of forest fuel moisture content using a coupled radiative transfer model

Abstract Forest fuel moisture content (FMC) dynamics are paramount to assessing the forest wildfire risk and its behavior. This variable can be retrieved from remotely sensed data using a radiative transfer model (RTM). However, previous studies generally treated the background of forest canopy as soil surface while ignored the fact that the soil may be covered by grass canopy. In this study, we focused on retrieving FMC of such forestry structure by coupling two RTMs: PROSAIL and PRO-GeoSail. The spectra of lower grass canopy were firstly simulated by the PROSAIL model, which was then coupled into the PRO-GeoSail model. The results showed that the accuracy level of retrieved FMC using this coupled model was better than that when the PRO-GeoSail model used alone. Further analysis revealed that low FMC condition fostered by fire weather condition had an important influence on the breakout of a fire during the study period.

Near Real-Time Extracting Wildfire Spread Rate from Himawari-8 Satellite Data

Fire Spread Rate (FSR) can indicate how fast a fire is spreading, which is especially helpful for wildfire rescue and management. Historically, images obtained from sun-orbiting satellites such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to detect active fire and burned area at the large spatial scale. However, the daily revisit cycles make them inherently unable to extract FSR in near real-time (hourly or less). We argue that the Himawari-8, a next generation geostationary satellite with a 10-min temporal resolution and 0.5–2 km spatial resolution, may have the potential for near real-time FSR extraction. To that end, we propose a novel method (named H8-FSR) for near real-time FSR extraction based on the Himawari-8 data. The method first defines the centroid of the burned area as the fire center and then the near real-time FSR is extracted by timely computing the movement rate of the fire center. As a case study, the method was applied to the Esperance bushfire that broke out on 17 November, 2015, in Western Australia. Compared with the estimated FSR using the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Grassland Fire Spread (GFS) model, H8-FSR achieved favorable performance with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.54, mean bias error of –0.75 m/s, mean absolute percent error of 33.20% and root mean square error of 1.17 m/s, respectively. These results demonstrated that the Himawari-8 data are valuable for near real-time FSR extraction, and also suggested that the proposed method could be potentially applicable to other next generation geostationary satellite data.