Martijn J. Booij

Identification and classification of uncertainties in the application of environmental models

In the support of environmental management, models are frequently used. The outcomes of these models however, rarely show a perfect resemblance to the real-world system behavior. This is due to uncertainties, introduced during the process of abstracting information about the system to include it in the model. To provide decision makers with realistic information about these model outcomes, uncertainty analysis is indispensable. Because of the multiplicity of frameworks available for uncertainty analysis, the outcomes of such analyses are rarely comparable. In this paper a method for structured identification and classification of uncertainties in the application of environmental models is presented. We adapted an existing uncertainty framework to enhance the objectivity in the uncertainty identification process. Two case studies demonstrate how it can help to obtain an overview of unique uncertainties encountered in a model. The presented method improves the comparability of uncertainty analyses in different model studies and leads to a coherent overview of uncertainties affecting model outcomes.

Decision making under uncertainty in a decision support system for the Red River

Decision support systems (DSSs) are increasingly being used in water management for the evaluation of impacts of policy measures under different scenarios. The exact impacts generally are unknown and surrounded with considerable uncertainties. These uncertainties stem from natural randomness, uncertainty in data, models and parameters, and uncertainty about measures and scenarios. It may therefore be difficult to make a selection of measures relevant for a particular water management problem. In order to support policy makers to make a strategic selection between different measures in a DSS while taking uncertainty into account, a methodology for the ranking of measures has been developed. The methodology has been applied to a pilot DSS for flood control in the Red River basin in Vietnam and China. The decision variable is the total flood damage and possible flood reducing measures are dike heightening, reforestation and the construction of a retention basin. For illustrative purposes, only parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The methodology consists of a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis employing Latin Hypercube Sampling and a ranking procedure based on the significance of the difference between output distributions for different measures. The significance is determined with the Student test for Gaussian distributions and with the non-parametric Wilcoxon test for non-Gaussian distributions. The results show Gaussian distributions for the flood damage in all situations. The mean flood damage in the base situation is about 2.2 billion US

Appropriate Spatial Sampling of Rainfall or Flow Simulation

for the year 1996 with a standard deviation due to parameter uncertainty of about 1 billion US

Uncertainty in high and low flows due to model structure and parameters errors

. Selected applications of the measures reforestation, dike heightening and the construction of a retention basin reduce the flood damage with about 5, 55 and 300 million US

Assessment of Roughness Length Schemes Implemented within the Noah Land Surface Model for High-Altitude Regions

respectively. The construction of a retention basin significantly reduces flood damage in the Red River basin, while dike heightening and reforestation reduce flood damage, but not significantly.

Seasonality of low flows and dominant processes in the Rhine River

Abstract The objective of this study is to find the appropriate number and location of raingauges for a river basin for flow simulation by using statistical analyses and hydrological modelling. First, a statistical method is used to identify the appropriate number of raingauges. Herein the effect of the number of raingauges on the cross-correlation coefficient between areally averaged rainfall and discharge is investigated. Second, a lumped HBV model is used to investigate the effect of the number of raingauges on hydrological modelling performance. The Qingjiang River basin with 26 raingauges in China is used for a case study. The results show that both cross-correlation coefficient and modelling performance increase hyperbolically, and level off after five raingauges (therefore identified to be the appropriate number of rain-gauges) for this basin. The geographical locations of raingauges which give the best and worst hydrological modelling performance are identified, which shows that there is a strong dependence on the local geographical and climatic patterns.

The influence of parametric uncertainty on the relationships between HBV model parameters and climatic characteristics

This paper aims to investigate the uncertainty in simulated extreme low and high flows originating from hydrological model structure and parameters. To this end, three different rainfall-runoff models, namely GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang, are applied to two subbasins of Qiantang River basin, eastern China. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach is used for estimating the uncertainty of the three models due to parameter values, henceforth referred as parameter uncertainty. Uncertainty in simulated extreme flows is evaluated by means of the annual maximum discharge and mean annual 7-day minimum discharge. The results show that although the models have good performance for the daily flows, the uncertainty in the extreme flows could not be neglected. The uncertainty originating from parameters is larger than uncertainty due to model structure. The parameter uncertainty of the extreme flows increases with the observed discharge. The parameter uncertainty in both the extreme high flows and the extreme low flows is the largest for the HBV model and the smallest for the Xinanjiang model. It is noted that the extreme low flows are mostly underestimated by all models with optimum parameter sets for both subbasins. The largest underestimation is from Xinanjiang model. Therefore it is not reliable enough to use only one set of the parameters to make the prediction and carrying out the uncertainty study in the extreme discharge simulation could give an overall picture for the planners.

Balance between calibration objectives in a conceptual hydrological model

Current land surface models still have difficulties with producing reliable surface heat fluxes and skin temperature (Tsfc) estimates for high-altitude regions, which may be addressed via adequate parameterization of the roughness lengths for momentum (z0m) and heat (z0h) transfer. In this study, the performance of various z0h and z0m schemes developed for the Noah land surface model is assessed for a high-altitude site (3430 m) on the northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on the in situ surface heat fluxes and profile measurements of wind and temperature, monthly variations of z0m and diurnal variations of z0h are derived through application of the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. These derived values together with the measured heat fluxes are utilized to assess the performance of those z0m and z0h schemes for different seasons. The analyses show that the z0m dynamics are related to vegetation dynamics and soil water freeze–thaw state, which are reproduced satisfactorily with current z0m schemes. Further, it is demonstrated that the heat flux simulations are very sensitive to the diurnal variations of z0h. The newly developed z0h schemes all capture, at least over the sparse vegetated surfaces during the winter season, the observed diurnal variability much better than the original one. It should, however, be noted that for the dense vegetated surfaces during the spring and monsoon seasons, not all newly developed schemes perform consistently better than the original one. With the most promising schemes, the Noah simulated sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, Tsfc, and soil temperature improved for the monsoon season by about 29%, 79%, 75%, and 81%, respectively. In addition, the impact of Tsfc calculation and energy balance closure associated with measurement uncertainties on the above findings are discussed, and the selection of the appropriate z0h scheme for applications is addressed.

Modelling the effects of spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall and basin model on extreme river discharge

Low flow forecasting is crucial for sustainable cooling water supply and planning of river navigation in the Rhine River. The first step in reliable low flow forecasting is to understand the characteristics of low flow. In this study, several methods are applied to understand the low flow characteristics of Rhine River basin. In 108 catchments of the Rhine River, winter and summer low flow regions are determined with the seasonality ratio (SR) index. To understand whether different numbers of processes are acting in generating different low flow regimes in seven major sub-basins (namely, East Alpine, West Alpine, Middle Rhine, Neckar, Main, Mosel and Lower Rhine) aggregated from the 108 catchments, the dominant variable concept is adopted from chaos theory. The number of dominant processes within the seven major sub-basins is determined with the correlation dimension analysis. Results of the correlation dimension analysis show that the minimum and maximum required number of variables to represent the low flow dynamics of the seven major sub-basins, except the Middle Rhine and Mosel, is 4 and 9, respectively. For the Mosel and Middle Rhine, the required minimum number of variables is 2 and 6, and the maximum number of variables is 5 and 13, respectively. These results show that the low flow processes of the major sub-basins of the Rhine could be considered as non-stochastic or chaotic processes. To confirm this conclusion, the rescaled range analysis is applied to verify persistency (i.e. non-randomness) in the processes. The estimated rescaled range statistics (i.e. Hurst exponents) are all above 0.5, indicating that persistent long-term memory characteristics exist in the runoff processes. Finally, the mean values of SR indices are compared with the nonlinear analyses results to find significant relationships. The results show that the minimum and maximum numbers of required variables (i.e. processes) to model the dynamic characteristics for five out of the seven major sub-basins are the same, but the observed low flow regimes are different (winter low flow regime and summer low flow regime). These results support the conclusion that a few interrelated nonlinear variables could yield completely different behaviour (i.e. dominant low flow regime).

Augmentations to the Noah Model Physics for Application to the Yellow River Source Area. Part II: Turbulent Heat Fluxes and Soil Heat Transport

Abstract An HBV rainfall–runoff model was applied to test the influence of climatic characteristics on model parameter values. The methodology consisted of the calibration and cross-validation of the HBV model on a series of 5-year periods for four selected catchments (Axe, Kamp, Wieprz and Wimmera). The model parameters were optimized using the SCEM-UA method which allowed for their uncertainty also to be assessed. Nine climatic indices were selected for the analysis of their influence on model parameters, and divided into water-related and temperature-related indices. This allowed the dependence of HBV model parameters on climate characteristics to be explored following their response to climate change conditioned on the catchment’s physical characteristics. The Pearson correlation coefficient and weighted Pearson correlation coefficient were used to test the dependence. Most parameters showed a statistically significant dependence on several climatic indices in all catchments. The study shows that the results of the correlation analysis with and without parametric uncertainty taken into account differ significantly.