Martin A. Andresen

Testing the Stability of Crime Patterns: Implications for Theory and Policy:

Recent research in the ‘‘crime at places’’ literature is concerned with smaller units of analysis than conventional spatial criminology. An important issue is whether the spatial patterns observed in conventional spatial criminology focused on neighborhoods remain when the analysis shifts to street segments. In this article, the authors use a new spatial point pattern test that identifies the similarity in spatial point patterns. This test is local in nature such that the output can be mapped showing where differences are present. Using this test, the authors investigate the stability of crime patterns moving from census tracts to dissemination areas to street segments. The authors find that general crime patterns are somewhat similar at all spatial scales, but finer scales of analysis reveal significant variations within larger units. This result demonstrates the importance of analyzing crime patterns at small scales and has important implications for further theoretical development and policy implementation.

A cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis of Vancouver's supervised injection facility.

BACKGROUND A supervised injection facility (SIF) has been established in North America: Insite, in Vancouver, British Columbia. The purpose of this paper is to conduct a cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis of this SIF using secondary data gathered and analysed in 2008. In using these data we seek to determine whether the facilitys prevention of infections and deaths among injecting drug users (IDUs) is of greater or lesser economic cost than the cost involved in providing this service - Insite - to this community. METHODS Mathematical modelling is used to estimate the number of new HIV infections and deaths prevented each year. We use the number of these new HIV infections and deaths prevented, in conjunction with estimated lifetime public health care costs of a new HIV infection, and the value of a life, in order to calculate an identifiable portion of the societal benefits of Insite. The annual costs of operating the SIF are used to measure the social costs of Insite. In using this information, we calculate cost-effectiveness and benefit-cost ratios for the SIF. RESULTS Through the use of conservative estimates, Vancouvers SIF, Insite, on average, prevents 35 new cases of HIV and almost 3 deaths each year. This provides a societal benefit in excess of

Location Quotients, Ambient Populations, and the Spatial Analysis of Crime in Vancouver, Canada

6 million per year after the programme costs are taken into account, translating into an average benefit-cost ratio of 5.12:1. CONCLUSION Vancouvers SIF appears to be an effective and efficient use of public health care resources, based on a modelling study of only two specific and measurable benefits-HIV infection and overdose death.

The Ambient Population and Crime Analysis

This paper uses the location quotient, a common measurement from economic geography and regional economics, to capture the specialization of criminal activity in Vancouver, Canada. Location quotients have barely been introduced into criminological research, yet they provide additional insight into crime analysis not available using crime counts and crime rates. The location quotients for automotive theft, break and enter, and violent crimes are mapped for Vancouver, Canada, and tested using social disorganization and routine activity theory as a theoretical framework. Strong support is found for these theories to predict specialization in criminal activity by interpreting their expectations in the context of crime-specific attractors.

The impact of using social media data in crime rate calculations: shifting hot spots and changing spatial patterns

This article uses an alternative measure of the population at risk, the ambient population (provided by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), in crime rate calculations. It is shown through a variety of statistical analyses at two different scales of aggregation that this alternatively calculated crime rate is not always related to the conventionally calculated crime rate. The implications of this finding are that past theoretical testing and policy formation might have been based on spurious results, showing the importance of remaining current with the developments of geographic information science technologies and data availability when undertaking a spatial analysis of crime.

Co-Offending and the Diversification of Crime Types

Crime rate is a statistic used to summarize the risk of criminal events. However, research has shown that choosing the appropriate denominator is non-trivial. Different crime types exhibit different spatial opportunities and so does the population at risk. The residential population is the most commonly used population at risk, but is unlikely to be suitable for crimes that involve mobile populations. In this article, we use “crowd-sourced” data in Leeds, England, to measure the population at risk, considering violent crime. These new data sources have the potential to represent mobile populations at higher spatial and temporal resolutions than other available data. Through the use of two local spatial statistics (Getis-Ord GI* and the Geographical Analysis Machine) and visualization, we show that when the volume of social media messages, as opposed to the residential population, is used as a proxy for the population at risk, criminal event hot spots shift spatially. Specifically, the results indicate a significant shift in the city center, eliminating its hot spot. Consequently, if crime reduction/prevention efforts are based on resident population based crime rates, such efforts may not only be ineffective in reducing criminal event risk, but be a waste of public resources.

Age and the distance to crime

There is theoretical and empirical support for co-offending being important not only for understanding current offending but also subsequent offending. The fundamental question is—why? In this article, an aggregate analysis is performed that begins to answer this question. Disaggregating solo- and co-offending by single year of age (12-29 years) and crime type in a largely metropolitan data set from British Columbia, Canada, 2002 to 2006, it is shown that the distribution of co-offences is significantly more varied than the distribution of solo offences. This more varied distribution of co-offences favors property crimes during youth but fades as offenders age.

The Point of Diminishing Returns: An Examination of Expanding Vancouver’s Insite

The journey-to-crime literature consistently shows that the distance to crime is short, particularly for violent crimes. Recent research has revealed methodological concerns regarding various (improper) groupings of data (nesting effects). In this article we investigate one such nesting effect: the relationship between age and the distance to crime. Contrary to much of the research that investigates this phenomenon, using a large incident-based data set of more than 100,000 crime trips, we find that the relationship between age and the distance to crime is best described as quadratic but this quadratic relationship is not universal across all crime classifications.

Police Foot Patrol and Crime Displacement A Local Analysis

North America’s only government-sanctioned supervised injection facility, Insite, has been subjected to substantial research. This research has found evidence for numerous public health benefits: decreased risky injection behaviour, decreased fatal overdoses, increased probability of initiating and maintaining addiction treatment, and cost-effectiveness. To date, a small number of costing studies have emerged with none of them investigating Insite expansions. Such an analysis is reported in this paper and it is found that, based on benefit–cost ratios, Insite should be expanded. However, this expansion is dependent on altering injection drug user behaviour outside Insite.

Unemployment and crime: A neighborhood level panel data approach.

Police patrol, motorized and foot, has a long history of being used as a crime prevention method. Scientific evaluations of this crime prevention technique have been undertaken for at least 40 years, with mixed results. One of the important questions to be answered regarding the implementation of a police patrol is the presence of crime displacement: criminal activity simply moving around the corner, away from the primary patrol area. Previous investigations of this phenomenon have found that, most often, crime displacement is nonexistent or less than crime reductions in the primary area of interest. In this article, we investigate local crime displacement. We use a spatial point pattern test that can identify changes in the spatial patterns/distribution of crime even if crime in all areas has decreased. We find moderate evidence for the presence of this spatial shift and discuss the implications.