Martin A. van Tuijl

IN‐SEASON HEAD‐COACH DISMISSALS AND THE PERFORMANCE OF PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAMS

This paper studies the causes and consequences of in-season changes of the headcoach of association football teams. We exploit data from the highest level of Dutch professional football during 14 successive seasons. An in-season change of the head-coach depends on recent match results and the difference between actual results and expectations as measured using bookmaker data. We find that, after the head-coach has been replaced, teams perform better than before. However, the performance is also better than before for a control group of coach replacements that did not occur. From this we conclude that replacement of head-coaches does not improve team performance.

Fiscal policy and public capital in interdependent economics

Abstract A two-country model is presented that has the following features: public and private capital accumulation, government debt and current account dynamics, differential saving propensities for profits and wages, imperfectly substitutable domestic and foreign commodities, a floating exchange rate, wage rigidities and flexible prices. Public capital enters into the aggregate production function. Congestion is taken into account by adjusting infrastructure for aggregate use of private factors. Numerical methods are used to trace the effects of higher public investment. Raising government investment proves to be advantageous for both regions. However, sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the long-run results in particular depend on the production-elasticity of congestion-corrected public capital.

Financial integration and fiscal policy in interdependent two-sector economies with real and nominal wage rigidity

Abstract A two-country-two-sector model with a portfolio choice between money and imperfectly substitutable domestic and foreign bonds, floating exchange rates and perfect foresight is presented. Account is taken of capital accumulation, government debt and current account dynamics. Numerical methods, including extensive analysis, are used to trace the consequences of financial integration for the effects and spill-over effects of fiscal policy. Another purpose is to establish the relevance of disaggregation for the outcomes of fiscal policy.

Effectiveness of in-season coach dismissal

Sports have become a fruitful field of research. First, studying sports is interesting in itself. Second, there are similarities between phenomena in sports and in other fields, such as labor economics (Kahn 2000, Szymanski 2003). One advantage of sports research is the wide availability and the relatively high frequency of data, such as match results in soccer. In this chapter, we will use such data and investigate the effect of an in-season coach dismissal of a professional soccer club on in-season performances of soccer teams. Given the resemblance between the position of a head-coach and a CEO (TerWeel 2011), this question is interesting from a business perspective as well. Kuper and Szymanski (2010) indicate doubt about the impact of a soccer manager on team performance. Anderson and Sally (2013) argue that the influence of a soccer manager is nonnegligible. Most previous studies show that short-term performances do not improve as a result of a change in head-coach (Van Ours and Van Tuijl (2016) provide a recent overview of previous studies). Previous studies use various methods and data sets from different countries and different time periods. Koning (2003) shows that performances do not improve after the replacement of a head-coach. He uses data from the first tier of Dutch professional soccer (“Eredivisie”). Koning takes into account the heterogeneity of opponents prior to and posterior to a change of head-coach. Furthermore, Bruinshoofd and Ter Weel (2003) and Van Ours and Van Tuijl (2016), also studying the highest professional soccer league in the Netherlands, show that a sequence of bad performances is often followed by a recovery, irrespective of the replacement of the head-coach. This points at a so-called regression to the mean, that is, if a sequence of bad performances is random, better results will follow automatically although performance has not improved. Thus, the conclusions of the these studies are similar concerning the effectiveness of an in-season head-coach dismissal. However, the setup of the of Methods and empirical analysis differs. And, although the authors all use data from the highest Dutch professional soccer league, their sample periods differ.

Twin debt reduction, government policies and interdependence

Abstract A two-country model with a portfolio choice between money and imperfectly substitutable domestic and foreign bonds, a floating exchange rate and perfect foresight is presented. Account is taken of capital accumulation, government debt and current account dynamics. Numerical methods, including extensive sensitivity analysis, are used to trace the results and spill over effects of a cut in government spending, aimed at the reduction of both external and government debt. This restrictive policy is conducted in a country with nominal wage rigidity, while the passive country is featured by real wage rigidity. The difference between lump sum and progressive income tax on the one hand and bond versus money financing of the budget deficit on the other, are analysed.