Martin C. J. Bootsma

The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities

During the 1918 influenza pandemic, the U.S., unlike Europe, put considerable effort into public health interventions. There was also more geographic variation in the autumn wave of the pandemic in the U.S. compared with Europe, with some cities seeing only a single large peak in mortality and others seeing double-peaked epidemics. Here we examine whether differences in the public health measures adopted by different cities can explain the variation in epidemic patterns and overall mortality observed. We show that city-specific per-capita excess mortality in 1918 was significantly correlated with 1917 per-capita mortality, indicating some intrinsic variation in overall mortality, perhaps related to sociodemographic factors. In the subset of 23 cities for which we had partial data on the timing of interventions, an even stronger correlation was found between excess mortality and how early in the epidemic interventions were introduced. We then fitted an epidemic model to weekly mortality in 16 cities with nearly complete intervention-timing data and estimated the impact of interventions. The model reproduced the observed epidemic patterns well. In line with theoretical arguments, we found the time-limited interventions used reduced total mortality only moderately (perhaps 10–30%), and that the impact was often very limited because of interventions being introduced too late and lifted too early. San Francisco, St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Kansas City had the most effective interventions, reducing transmission rates by up to 30–50%. Our analysis also suggests that individuals reactively reduced their contact rates in response to high levels of mortality during the pandemic.

Transmissibility of livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (ST398) in Dutch hospitals

We quantified nosocomial transmission rates of sequence type (ST) 398 methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) (an emerging livestock-associated MRSA clone) and non-ST398 MRSA isolates in patients hospitalized without infection control measures in 51 Dutch hospitals. Identification of 174 index patients initiated 139 post-exposure screenings of 9925 persons. There were 65 genotype-confirmed secondary cases (three and 62 for ST398 and non-ST398 MRSA, respectively), yielding a relative transmission risk for ST398 MRSA of 0.28 (95% CI 0.09-0.90), which was not sensitive to adjustment for duration of hospitalization at time of detection. Nosocomial transmission of ST398 MRSA is 72% less likely than that of non-ST398 MRSA strains.

Import and spread of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae by international travellers (COMBAT study): a prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND International travel contributes to the dissemination of antimicrobial resistance. We investigated the acquisition of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) during international travel, with a focus on predictive factors for acquisition, duration of colonisation, and probability of onward transmission. METHODS Within the prospective, multicentre COMBAT study, 2001 Dutch travellers and 215 non-travelling household members were enrolled. Faecal samples and questionnaires on demographics, illnesses, and behaviour were collected before travel and immediately and 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after return. Samples were screened for the presence of ESBL-E. In post-travel samples, ESBL genes were sequenced and PCR with specific primers for plasmid-encoded β-lactamase enzymes TEM, SHV, and CTX-M group 1, 2, 8, 9, and 25 was used to confirm the presence of ESBL genes in follow-up samples. Multivariable regression analyses and mathematical modelling were used to identify predictors for acquisition and sustained carriage, and to determine household transmission rates. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01676974. FINDINGS 633 (34·3%) of 1847 travellers who were ESBL negative before travel and had available samples after return had acquired ESBL-E during international travel (95% CI 32·1-36·5), with the highest number of acquisitions being among those who travelled to southern Asia in 136 of 181 (75·1%, 95% CI 68·4-80·9). Important predictors for acquisition of ESBL-E were antibiotic use during travel (adjusted odds ratio 2·69, 95% CI 1·79-4·05), travellers diarrhoea that persisted after return (2·31, 1·42-3·76), and pre-existing chronic bowel disease (2·10, 1·13-3·90). The median duration of colonisation after travel was 30 days (95% CI 29-33). 65 (11·3%) of 577 remained colonised at 12 months. CTX-M enzyme group 9 ESBLs were associated with a significantly increased risk of sustained carriage (median duration 75 days, 95% CI 48-102, p=0·0001). Onward transmission was found in 13 (7·7%) of 168 household members. The probability of transmitting ESBL-E to another household member was 12% (95% CI 5-18). INTERPRETATION Acquisition and spread of ESBL-E during and after international travel was substantial and worrisome. Travellers to areas with a high risk of ESBL-E acquisition should be viewed as potential carriers of ESBL-E for up to 12 months after return. FUNDING Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw).

The nosocomial transmission rate of animal-associated ST398 meticillin- resistant Staphylococcus aureus

The global epidemiology of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is characterized by different clonal lineages with different epidemiological behaviour. There are pandemic hospital clones (hospital-associated (HA-)MRSA), clones mainly causing community-acquired infections (community-associated (CA-)MRSA, mainly USA300) and an animal-associated clone (ST398) emerging in European and American livestock with subsequent spread to humans. Nosocomial transmission capacities (RA) of these different MRSA types have never been quantified. Using two large datasets from MRSA outbreaks in Dutch hospitals (dataset 1, the UMC Utrecht for 144 months; dataset 2, 51 hospitals for six months) and a recently developed mathematical model, we determined the genotype-specific RA for ST398 and non-ST398 isolates (categorized as HA-MRSA), using observational data, the detection rate of MRSA carriage and the discharge rate from hospital as the input. After detection of 42 MRSA index cases in dataset 1 (all non-ST398 MRSA) 5076 people were screened, yielding 30 secondary cases. In dataset 2, 75 index cases (51 non-ST398 MRSA and 24 ST398) resulted in 7892 screened individuals and 56 and three secondary cases for non-ST398 MRSA and ST398, respectively. The ratio between discharge and the detection rate was 2.7. RA values (95% confidence interval (CI)) were 0.68 (0.47–0.95) for non-ST398 MRSA in dataset 1, 0.93 (0.71–1.21) for non-ST398 MRSA in dataset 2 and 0.16 (0.04–0.40) for ST398. The RA ratio between non-ST398 MRSA and ST398 was 5.90 (95% CI 2.24–23.81). ST398 is 5.9 times less transmissible than non-ST398 MRSA in Dutch hospitals, which may allow less stringent transmission-control measures for ST398 MRSA.

Successful Veterans Affairs Initiative to Prevent Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Infections Revisited

In 2011 Jain et al reported a 62% reduction of healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infections that resulted from an intervention bundle. Here we present a mathematical model and prove, using parameters from the study by Jain et al, that the universal screen and isolate strategy can have contributed only marginally to the reduction in infections.

Modelling the Costs and Effects of Selective and Universal Hospital Admission Screening for Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Background Screening at hospital admission for carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been proposed as a strategy to reduce nosocomial infections. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term costs and health benefits of selective and universal screening for MRSA at hospital admission, using both PCR-based and chromogenic media-based tests in various settings. Methodology/Principal Findings A simulation model of MRSA transmission was used to determine costs and effects over 15 years from a US healthcare perspective. We compared admission screening together with isolation of identified carriers against a baseline policy without screening or isolation. Strategies included selective screening of high risk patients or universal admission screening, with PCR-based or chromogenic media-based tests, in medium (5%) or high nosocomial prevalence (15%) settings. The costs of screening and isolation per averted MRSA infection were lowest using selective chromogenic-based screening in high and medium prevalence settings, at

The Population Genetics of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Isolates from Different Patient Populations Exhibits High-Level Host Specificity

4,100 and

Potential confounding in evaluating infection-control interventions in hospital settings: changing antibiotic prescription.

10,300, respectively. Replacing the chromogenic-based test with a PCR-based test costs

Transmissibility of Livestock-associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

13,000 and

The effects of clinical and statistical heterogeneity on the predictive values of results from meta-analyses

36,200 per additional infection averted, and subsequent extension to universal screening with PCR would cost