Martin Grann

Psychopathy and the predictive validity of the PCL-R: an international perspective.

Its controversial past notwithstanding, psychopathy has emerged as one of the most important clinical constructs in the criminal justice and mental health systems. One reason for the surge in theoretical and applied interest in the disorder is the development and widespread adoption of reliable and valid methods for its measurement. The Hare PCL-R provides researchers and clinicians with a common metric for the assessment of psychopathy, and has led to a surge in replicable and meaningful findings relevant to the issue of risk for recidivism and violence, among other things. Most of the research thus far has been based on North American samples of offenders and forensic psychiatric patients. We summarize this research and compare it with findings from several other countries, including England and Sweden. We conclude that the ability of the PCL-R to predict recidivism, violence, and treatment outcome has considerable cross-cultural generalizability, and that the PCL-R and its derivatives play a major role in the understanding and prediction of crime and violence.

Schizophrenia and Violence: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Seena Fazel and colleagues investigate the association between schizophrenia and other psychoses and violence and violent offending, and show that the increased risk appears to be partly mediated by substance abuse comorbidity.

Schizophrenia, substance abuse, and violent crime.

CONTEXT Persons with schizophrenia are thought to be at increased risk of committing violent crime 4 to 6 times the level of general population individuals without this disorder. However, risk estimates vary substantially across studies, and considerable uncertainty exists as to what mediates this elevated risk. Despite this uncertainty, current guidelines recommend that violence risk assessment should be conducted for all patients with schizophrenia. OBJECTIVE To determine the risk of violent crime among patients diagnosed as having schizophrenia and the role of substance abuse in mediating this risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Longitudinal designs were used to link data from nationwide Swedish registers of hospital admissions and criminal convictions in 1973-2006. Risk of violent crime in patients after diagnosis of schizophrenia (n = 8003) was compared with that among general population controls (n = 80 025). Potential confounders (age, sex, income, and marital and immigrant status) and mediators (substance abuse comorbidity) were measured at baseline. To study familial confounding, we also investigated risk of violence among unaffected siblings (n = 8123) of patients with schizophrenia. Information on treatment was not available. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Violent crime (any criminal conviction for homicide, assault, robbery, arson, any sexual offense, illegal threats, or intimidation). RESULTS In patients with schizophrenia, 1054 (13.2%) had at least 1 violent offense compared with 4276 (5.3%) of general population controls (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-2.2). The risk was mostly confined to patients with substance abuse comorbidity (of whom 27.6% committed an offense), yielding an increased risk of violent crime among such patients (adjusted OR, 4.4; 95% CI, 3.9-5.0), whereas the risk increase was small in schizophrenia patients without substance abuse comorbidity (8.5% of whom had at least 1 violent offense; adjusted OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4; P<.001 for interaction). The risk increase among those with substance abuse comorbidity was significantly less pronounced when unaffected siblings were used as controls (28.3% of those with schizophrenia had a violent offense compared with 17.9% of their unaffected siblings; adjusted OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4-2.4; P<.001 for interaction), suggesting significant familial (genetic or early environmental) confounding of the association between schizophrenia and violence. CONCLUSIONS Schizophrenia was associated with an increased risk of violent crime in this longitudinal study. This association was attenuated by adjustment for substance abuse, suggesting a mediating effect. The role of risk assessment, management, and treatment in individuals with comorbidity needs further examination.

A Comparative Study of Violence Risk Assessment Tools: A Systematic Review and Metaregression Analysis of 68 Studies Involving 25,980 Participants

There are a large number of structured instruments that assist in the assessment of antisocial, violent and sexual risk, and their use appears to be increasing in mental health and criminal justice settings. However, little is known about which commonly used instruments produce the highest rates of predictive validity, and whether overall rates of predictive validity differ by gender, ethnicity, outcome, and other study characteristics. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of nine commonly used risk assessment instruments following PRISMA guidelines. We collected data from 68 studies based on 25,980 participants in 88 independent samples. For 54 of the samples, new tabular data was provided directly by authors. We used four outcome statistics to assess rates of predictive validity, and analyzed sources of heterogeneity using subgroup analysis and metaregression. A tool designed to detect violence risk in juveniles, the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), produced the highest rates of predictive validity, while an instrument used to identify adults at risk for general offending, the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R), and a personality scale commonly used for the purposes of risk assessment, the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), produced the lowest. Instruments produced higher rates of predictive validity in older and in predominantly White samples. Risk assessment procedures and guidelines by mental health services and criminal justice systems may need review in light of these findings.

The population impact of severe mental illness on violent crime

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to determine the population impact of patients with severe mental illness on violent crime. METHOD Sweden possesses high-quality national registers for all hospital admissions and criminal convictions. All individuals discharged from the hospital with ICD diagnoses of schizophrenia and other psychoses (N=98,082) were linked to the crime register to determine the population-attributable risk of patients with severe mental illness to violent crime. The attributable risk was calculated by gender, three age bands (15-24, 25-39, and 40 years and over), and offense type. RESULTS Over a 13-year period, there were 45 violent crimes committed per 1,000 inhabitants. Of these, 2.4 were attributable to patients with severe mental illness. This corresponds to a population-attributable risk fraction of 5.2%. This attributable risk fraction was higher in women than men across all age bands. In women ages 25-39, it was 14.0%, and in women over 40, it was 19.0%. The attributable risk fractions were lowest in those ages 15-24 (2.3% for male patients and 2.9% for female patients). CONCLUSIONS The population impact of patients with severe mental illness on violent crime, estimated by calculating the population-attributable risk, varies by gender and age. Overall, the population-attributable risk fraction of patients was 5%, suggesting that patients with severe mental illness commit one in 20 violent crimes.

Use of risk assessment instruments to predict violence and antisocial behaviour in 73 samples involving 24 827 people: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To investigate the predictive validity of tools commonly used to assess the risk of violence, sexual, and criminal behaviour. Design Systematic review and tabular meta-analysis of replication studies following PRISMA guidelines. Data sources PsycINFO, Embase, Medline, and United States Criminal Justice Reference Service Abstracts. Review methods We included replication studies from 1 January 1995 to 1 January 2011 if they provided contingency data for the offending outcome that the tools were designed to predict. We calculated the diagnostic odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, the number needed to detain to prevent one offence, as well as a novel performance indicator—the number safely discharged. We investigated potential sources of heterogeneity using metaregression and subgroup analyses. Results Risk assessments were conducted on 73 samples comprising 24 847 participants from 13 countries, of whom 5879 (23.7%) offended over an average of 49.6 months. When used to predict violent offending, risk assessment tools produced low to moderate positive predictive values (median 41%, interquartile range 27-60%) and higher negative predictive values (91%, 81-95%), and a corresponding median number needed to detain of 2 (2-4) and number safely discharged of 10 (4-18). Instruments designed to predict violent offending performed better than those aimed at predicting sexual or general crime. Conclusions Although risk assessment tools are widely used in clinical and criminal justice settings, their predictive accuracy varies depending on how they are used. They seem to identify low risk individuals with high levels of accuracy, but their use as sole determinants of detention, sentencing, and release is not supported by the current evidence. Further research is needed to examine their contribution to treatment and management.

Psychopathy (PCL-R) predicts violent recidivism among criminal offenders with personality disorders in Sweden

Psychopathy as conceptualized with Hares Psychopathy Checklist Revised, PCL-R, has attracted much research during the 1990s. In the Scandinavian countries, few studies that empirically support the validity of North American risk assessment techniques in our regional context have been published. The purpose of this paper is to explore the predictive power of the PCL-R in a population of personality-disordered violent offenders subjected to forensic psychiatric evaluation in Sweden. Following release from prison (n = 172), discharge from forensic psychiatric treatment (n = 129), or probation (n = 51), a total of 352 individuals were followed for up to 8 years (mean = 3.7 years) with reconviction for violent crime as endpoint variable (base rate 34%). As the estimate of predictive power, the area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic (AUC of ROC) analysis was calculated. For PCL-R scores to predict 2-year violent recidivism, AUC of ROC was .72 (95% CI: .66–.78). In addition, the personality dimension of psychopathy (Factor 1) and the behavioral component (Factor 2) both predicted 2-year recidivism significantly better than random: AUC of ROC .64 (95% CI: .57–.70) and .71 (95% CI: .65–.77), respectively. We conclude that psychopathy is probably as valid a predictor of violent recidivism in Swedish forensic settings as seen in previous North American studies.

Bipolar Disorder and Violent Crime: New Evidence From Population-Based Longitudinal Studies and Systematic Review

CONTEXT Although bipolar disorder is associated with various adverse health outcomes, the relationship with violent crime is uncertain. OBJECTIVES To determine the risk of violent crime in bipolar disorder and to contextualize the findings with a systematic review. DESIGN Longitudinal investigations using general population and unaffected sibling control individuals. SETTING Population-based registers of hospital discharge diagnoses, sociodemographic information, and violent crime in Sweden from January 1, 1973, through December 31, 2004. PARTICIPANTS Individuals with 2 or more discharge diagnoses of bipolar disorder (n = 3743), general population controls (n = 37 429), and unaffected full siblings of individuals with bipolar disorder (n = 4059). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Violent crime (actions resulting in convictions for homicide, assault, robbery, arson, any sexual offense, illegal threats, or intimidation). RESULTS During follow-up, 314 individuals with bipolar disorder (8.4%) committed violent crime compared with 1312 general population controls (3.5%) (adjusted odds ratio, 2.3; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-2.6). The risk was mostly confined to patients with substance abuse comorbidity (adjusted odds ratio, 6.4; 95% confidence interval, 5.1-8.1). The risk increase was minimal in patients without substance abuse comorbidity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-1.5), which was further attenuated when unaffected full siblings of individuals with bipolar disorder were used as controls (1.1; 0.7-1.6). We found no differences in rates of violent crime by clinical subgroups (manic vs depressive or psychotic vs nonpsychotic). The systematic review identified 8 previous studies (n = 6383), with high heterogeneity between studies. Odds ratio for violence risk ranged from 2 to 9. CONCLUSION Although current guidelines for the management of individuals with bipolar disorder do not recommend routine risk assessment for violence, this assertion may need review in patients with comorbid substance abuse.

Risk for Criminal Recidivism Among Young Sex Offenders

Several authors have emphasized the need for empirically derived instruments for reoffending risk assessment among young sex offenders (YSOs). The authors screened the literature on sex offenders for clinically or empirically motivated variables related to criminal recidivism, identifying 22 putative risk factors. All Swedish YSOs (aged 15-20) subjected to court-ordered forensic psychiatric investigations from 1988 through 1995 and available for follow-up (n = 46) were included (mean time at risk = 5 years). Base rates for sexual and general recidivism were 20% and 65%, respectively. Previous criminality, early onset conduct disorder, psychopathy, and use of death threats and weapons at index sex crime proved predictive of general but not sexual recidivism. Factors indicative of sexual deviance (early onset sexually abusive behavior, male victim choice, more than one victim) and poor social skills were associated with elevated risk for sexual reoffending. However, replication in independent samples is needed to corroborate these preliminary findings.

Prison suicide in 12 countries: an ecological study of 861 suicides during 2003–2007

BackgroundAlthough suicide rates among prisoners are high and vary between countries, it is uncertain whether this reflects the importation of risk from the general population or is associated with incarceration rates.MethodsWe collected data on suicides and undetermined deaths in 12 countries (Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, Ireland, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Scotland, and Sweden) directly from their prison administrations for 2003–2007. These were compared with rates of suicides in the general population separately by gender using Pearson’s correlations. In addition, they were compared with rates of incarceration. Linear regression was used to examine any association after adjustment for rates of incarceration.ResultsData were collected on 861 suicides in prison, of which 810 were in men. In the men, crude relative rates of suicide were at least three times higher than the general population. Western European countries had similar rates of prisoner suicide which were mostly higher than those in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. There was no association between rates of suicide in prisoners and general population rates or rates of incarceration. In the women, inmate suicide rates varied widely and were mostly raised compared with rates in the general population. In addition, these rates did not appear to be associated with general population rates of suicide.ConclusionsRates of prison suicide do not reflect general population suicide rates, suggesting that variations in prison suicide rates reflect differences in criminal justice systems including, possibly, the provision of psychiatric care in prison.