Martin Greiner

Continuum percolation of wireless ad hoc communication networks

Wireless multi-hop ad hoc communication networks represent an infrastructure-less and self-organized generalization of todays wireless cellular networks. Connectivity within such a network is an important issue. Continuum percolation and technology-driven mutations thereof allow to address this issue in the static limit and to construct a simple distributed protocol, guaranteeing strong connectivity almost surely and independently of various typical uncorrelated and correlated random spatial patterns of participating ad hoc nodes.

Transmission needs across a fully renewable European power system

The residual load and excess power generation of 30 European countries with a 100% penetration of variable renewable energy sources are explored in order to quantify the benefit of power transmission between countries. Estimates are based on extensive weather data, which allows for modelling of hourly mismatches between the demand and renewable generation from wind and solar photovoltaics. For separated countries, balancing is required to cover around 24% of the total annual electricity consumption. This number can be reduced down to 15% once all countries are networked together with unconstrained interconnectors. The reduction represents the maximum possible benefit of transmission for the countries. The total Net Transfer Capacity of the unconstrained interconnectors is roughly 11.5 times larger than current values. However, constrained interconnector capacities 5.7 times larger than the current values are found to provide 98% of the maximum possible benefit of transmission. This motivates a detailed investigation of several constrained transmission capacity layouts to determine the export and import capabilities of countries participating in a fully renewable European electricity system.

Transmission grid extensions during the build-up of a fully renewable pan-European electricity supply

Spatio-temporal generation patterns for wind and solar photovoltaic power in Europe are used to investigate the future rise in transmission needs with an increasing penetration of the VRES (variable renewable energy sources) on the pan-European electricity system. VRES growth predictions according to the official National Renewable Energy Action Plans of the EU countries are used and extrapolated logistically up to a fully VRES-supplied power system. We find that keeping todays international NTCs (net transfer capacities) fixed over the next forty years reduces the final need for backup energy by 13% when compared to the situation with no NTCs. An overall doubling of todays NTCs will lead to a 26% reduction, and an overall quadrupling to a 33% reduction. The remaining need for backup energy is due to correlations in the generation patterns, and cannot be further reduced by transmission. The main investments in transmission lines are due during the ramp-up of VRES from 15% (as planned for 2020) to 80%. Additionally, our results show how the optimal mix between wind and solar energy shifts from about 70% to 80% wind share as the transmission grid is enhanced. Finally, we exemplify how reinforced transmission affects the import and export opportunities of single countries during the VRES ramp-up.

Features of a fully renewable US electricity system: Optimized mixes of wind and solar PV and transmission grid extensions

A future energy system is likely to rely heavily on wind and solar PV. To quantify general features of such a weather dependent electricity supply in the contiguous US, wind and solar PV generation data are calculated, based on 32 years of weather data with temporal resolution of 1h and spatial resolution of 40×40km2, assuming site-suitability-based and stochastic wind and solar capacity distributions. The regional wind-and-solar mixes matching load and generation closest on seasonal timescales cluster around 80% solar share, owing to the US summer load peak. This mix more than halves long-term storage requirements, compared to wind only. The mixes matching generation and load best on daily timescales lie at about 80% wind share, due to the nightly gap in solar production. Going from solar only to this mix reduces backup energy needs by about 50%. Furthermore, we calculate shifts in FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission)-level LCOE (Levelized Costs Of Electricity) for wind and solar PV due to differing weather conditions. Regional LCOE vary by up to 29%, and LCOE-optimal mixes largely follow resource quality. A transmission network enhancement among FERC regions is constructed to transfer high penetrations of solar and wind across FERC boundaries, employing a novel least-cost optimization.

Validation of Danish wind time series from a new global renewable energy atlas for energy system analysis

We present a new high-resolution global renewable energy atlas (REatlas) that can be used to calculate customised hourly time series of wind and solar PV power generation. In this paper, the atlas is applied to produce 32-year-long hourly model wind power time series for Denmark for each historical and future year between 1980 and 2035. These are calibrated and validated against real production data from the period 2000 to 2010. The high number of years allows us to discuss how the characteristics of Danish wind power generation varies between individual weather years. As an example, the annual energy production is found to vary by ±10% from the average. Furthermore, we show how the production pattern change as small onshore turbines are gradually replaced by large onshore and offshore turbines. Finally, we compare our wind power time series for 2020 to corresponding data from a handful of Danish energy system models. The aim is to illustrate how current differences in model wind may result in significant differences in technical and economical model predictions. These include up to 15% differences in installed capacity and 40% differences in system reserve requirements.

Optimized network structure and routing metric in wireless multihop ad hoc communication

Inspired by the Statistical Physics of complex networks, wireless multihop ad hoc communication networks are considered in abstracted form. Since such engineered networks are able to modify their structure via topology control, we search for optimized network structures, which maximize the end-to-end throughput performance. A modified version of betweenness centrality is introduced and shown to be very relevant for the respective modeling. The calculated optimized network structures lead to a significant increase of the end-to-end throughput. The discussion of the resulting structural properties reveals that it will be almost impossible to construct these optimized topologies in a technologically efficient distributive manner. However, the modified betweenness centrality also allows to propose a new routing metric for the end-to-end communication traffic. This approach leads to an even larger increase of throughput capacity and is easily implementable in a technologically relevant manner.

The benefits of cooperation in a highly renewable European electricity network

To reach ambitious European CO2 emission reduction targets, most scenarios of future European electricity systems rely on large shares of wind and solar photovoltaic power generation. We interpolate between two concepts for balancing the variability of these renewable sources: balancing at continental scales using the transmission grid and balancing locally with storage. This interpolation is done by systematically restricting transmission capacities from the optimum level to zero. We run techno-economic cost optimizations for the capacity investment and dispatch of wind, solar, hydroelectricity, natural gas power generation and transmission, as well as storage options such as pumped-hydro, battery, and hydrogen storage. The simulations assume a 95% CO2 emission reduction compared to 1990, and are run over a full historical year of weather and electricity demand for 30 European countries. In the cost-optimal system with high levels of transmission expansion, energy generation is dominated by wind (65%) and hydro (15%), with average system costs comparable to todays system. Restricting transmission shifts the balance in favour of solar and storage, driving up costs by a third. As the restriction is relaxed, 85% of the cost benefits of the optimal grid expansion can be captured already with only 44% of the transmission volume.

Impact of interference on the wireless ad-hoc networks capacity and topology

It is wide spread belief that wireless mobile ad-hoc networks will be a further evolutionary step towards ubiquitous communication and computing. Due to the mobility of the network nodes, the strongly varying radio propagation conditions and the varying data traffic load these networks constitute a very dynamic environment. One essential step in evaluating the true benefit of this new technology consists of estimates and constraints concerning the scalability and performance of such networks. Using a simple model we discuss analytically the effect of interference on the link quality and connectivity of large networks. It turns out that the outage probability rapidly increases with increasing traffic load. Furthermore, we investigate the connectivity of the network under varying traffic load and find a percolation phase transition at a particular value of the traffic load. We discuss the dependence of these effects on parameters characterizing the receiver and the radio propagation conditions.

Stochastic energy-cascade model for (1 + 1)-dimensional fully developed turbulence

Geometrical random multiplicative cascade processes are often used to model positive-valued multifractal fields such as the energy dissipation in fully developed turbulence. We propose a dynamical generalization describing the energy dissipation in terms of a continuous and homogeneous stochastic field in one space and one time dimension. In the model, correlations originate in the overlap of the respective spacetime histories of field amplitudes. The theoretical two- and three-point correlation functions are found to be in excellent agreement with their equal-time counterparts extracted from wind tunnel turbulent shear flow data.

Impact of network structure on the capacity of wireless multihop ad hoc communication

As a representative of a complex technological system, the so-called wireless multihop ad hoc communication networks are discussed. They represent an infrastructure-less generalization of todays wireless cellular phone networks. Lacking a central control authority, the ad hoc nodes have to coordinate themselves such that the overall network performs in an optimal way. A performance indicator is the end-to-end throughput capacity. Various models, generating differing ad hoc network structure via differing transmission power assignments, are constructed and characterized. They serve as input for a generic data traffic simulation as well as some semi-analytic estimations. The latter reveal that due to the most-critical-node effect the end-to-end throughput capacity sensitively depends on the underlying network structure, resulting in differing scaling laws with respect to network size.