Martin Gustafsson

Low Quality Education as a Poverty Trap

The weak quality of education received by most poor children in South Africa places them in permanent disadvantage relative to those attending the mainly more affluent and better performing schools. This document draws from a large number of studies undertaken for a major project and summarises this evidence, which illustrating that low quality schools act as a poverty trap.

The costs of illiteracy in South Africa

In South Africa there has been a surge in publicly funded adult literacy education in recent years. There is a recognition that for the effective monitoring of adult literacy, direct measures of literacy are required. Grade attainment, self-reported ability to read and behavioural variables relating to, for instance, reading habits produce vastly different measures of adult literacy in South Africa. It is noteworthy that self-reported values change over time as people’s perceptions of what consitutes literacy shifts. A 75% literacy rate is arguably a plausible figure, though the absence of a direct measure is problematic. An education production function suggests that literacy-related parent behaviour, independently of parent years of education, influences performance of learners in school. In a multivariate employment model, self-reported literacy is a statistically significant predictor of being employed. In a cross-country growth model, poor quality schooling emerges as the variable requiring the most urgent policy attention to sustain and improve South Africa’s economic development. Both microeconomic and macroeconomic estimates suggest that with a more typical level of school performance South Africa’s GDP would be 23% to 30% higher than it currently is.

South Africa’s economics of education: A stocktaking and an agenda for the way forward

This paper reviews some of the existing economics of education literature from the perspective of South Africas education policymaking needs. It also puts forward a suggested research agenda for future work. The review is arranged according to five areas of research: rates of return, production functions, teacher incentives, benefit incidence analysis and cross-country comparisons. Production functions, especially if translated to cost-effectiveness models, can point to important policy solutions. Teacher incentives is a policy area that is in need of a better theoretical and empirical basis. Rates of return are difficult for policymakers to interpret, but suggest a need for a qualification below the Grade 12 level. While benefit incidence analysis can demonstrate large improvements in the equity of public financing, cross-country comparisons reveal that not only is the distribution of schooling outcomes particularly unequal, on average it is well below what the countrys level of development would predict.

The standard error of regressions: a note on new evidence of significance misuse

ABSTRACT There is a body of literature dealing with the improper use of statistical significance within economic analysis. Amongthe problematic usages that have been identified are fundamental misunderstandings about the influence of sample design and size on statistical significance, an excessive focus on statistical significance to the exclusion of economic and policy significance, and a harmful conflation of these two very different types of significance. An analysis of 51 agricultural economics papers reviewed and presented at an African conference in 2010 finds improper usage of statistical significance that is comparable or worse in nature and extent to that found in a previous meta analysis focusing on published articles in the American Economic Review in the 1980s and 1990s: well over half of the papers employed what is termed “sign” and “asterisks” econometrics. Overall, the findings underline the need for clearly stated and consistent analytical methods in producing papers as well as for careful review and selection of papers that employ regression analysis.