Martin Jansen

Statistical methods for regionalization of ecological state variables

Many projects in ecological research are concerned with spatially arranged measurements. A common situation can mathematically be described by a finite set of points (locations)

Fast Growing Plantations for Wood Production – Integration of Ecological Effects and Economic Perspectives

Biomass crops are perceived as a feasible means to substitute sizeable amounts of fossil fuel in the future. A prospect of CO2 reduction (resp. CO2 neutrality) is credited to biomass fuels, and thus a potential contribution to mitigate climate change. Short rotation coppices (SRCs) with fast growing poplar and willow trees are an option for producing high yields of woody biomass, which is suitable for both energetic and material use. One negative effect that comes along with the establishment of SRC may be a decrease in groundwater recharge, because high rates of transpiration and interception are anticipated. Therefore, it is important to measure, analyze, and model the effects of SRC-planting on landscape water budgets. To analyze the effects on the water budget, a poplar SRC plot was studied by measuring hydrological parameters to be used in the hydrological model WaSim. Results reveal very low or even missing ground water recharge for SRC compared to agricultural land use or grassland, especially succeeding dry years. However, this strong effect on plot level is moderated on the larger spatial scale of catchment level, for which the modeling was also performed. In addition to water, nutrient fluxes and budgets were studied. Nitrogen is still a crucial issue in today’s agriculture. Intensive fertilization or increased applications of manure from concentrated livestock breeding are often leading to high loads of nitrate leaching, or enhanced N2O emissions to the atmosphere on arable crop fields. SRC or agroforestry systems on former crop land may offer an option to decrease such N losses, while simultaneously producing woody biomass. This is mainly due to the generally smaller N requirements of woody vegetation, which usually entail no need for any fertilization. The trees supply deep and permanent rooting systems, which can be regarded as a “safety net” to prevent nutrient leaching. Thus, SRC altogether can help to diminish N eutrophication. It is important to offer viable and attractive economic perspectives to farmers and other land managers besides of the potential ecological benefits of SRCs. For this reason, an integrated tool for scenario analysis was developed within the BEST project (“BEAST – Bio-Energy Allocation and Scenario Tool”). It combines ecological assessments with calculations of economic revenue as a basis for a participative regional dialog on sustainable land use and climate protection goals. Results show a substantial capacity for providing renewable energy from economically competitive arable SRC sites while generating ecological synergies.

Challenges in Climate-Driven Decision Support Systems in Forestry

The history of Decision Support Systems in forestry is quite long as well as the list of created systems and reviews summarizing their merits and flaws. It is generally recognized that a modern decision support system (DSS) should address simultaneously as many economical and ecological issues as possible without becoming overly complex and still remain understandable for users (Reynolds et al., 2008). The ongoing global change including the climate change sets new boundary conditions for decision makers in the forestry sector. The changing growth conditions (Albert & Schmidt, 2010) and expected increasing number of weather extremes like storms force forest owners to make decisions on how to replace the damaged stands and/or how to mitigate the damages. This decision making process requires adequate information on the future climate as well as on complex climate-forest interactions which could be provided by an appropriate climate-driven decision support tool. Both the damage factors and the forest management (e.g. harvesting) result in changes of the structure of forest stands. The structural changes result in immediate changes of albedo and roughness of land surface as well as of microclimatological conditions within the stand and on the soil surface. The consequences are manifold. The changed stand density and leaf area index trigger energy and water balance changes which in turn increase or decrease the vulnerability of the remaining stand to abiotic and biotic damage factors like droughts or insect attacks. A change of the microclimatic conditions might strengthen the forest against drought, but at the same time reduce its resistance to windthrow. The sign and extent of vulnerability changes depend on complex interactions of the effective climatic agents, aboveand belowground forest structure, and soil. There are many DSS that are capable of assessing one or several risk factors; however there are few that are able to assess the additional increase or decrease of risks triggered by modification of forest structure resulting from previous damage or forest management activities. Disregarding these effects will inevitably lead user to either underor overestimation of the potential damages. The question arises whether these additional risks are significant enough to be considered in a DSS. In this chapter we present a new DSS developed according to the above mentioned requirements and capable to provide decision support taking into account economical and ecological considerations under the conditions of changing climate the Decision Support

Spatial models for site evaluation and forest planning

The question of the natural state of the vegetation in forests plays a vital role in the discussion of the importance of forests as habitats. To take into account conservation aspects as a management objective, most German state forest departments catalogue forests resembling natural woodlands (see Otto 1989, 1992, 1995; Beese 1996).