Martin Kernan

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

Abstract It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.

Ecological impacts of global warming and water abstraction on lakes and reservoirs due to changes in water level and related changes in salinity

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released in September 2014, unprecedented changes in temperature and precipitation patterns have been recorded globally in recent decades and further change is predicted to occur in the near future, mainly as the result of human activity. In particular, projections show that the Mediterranean climate zone will be markedly affected with significant implications for lake water levels and salinity. This may be exacerbated by increased demands for irrigation water. Based on long-term data from seven lakes and reservoirs covering a geographical gradient of 52° of latitudes and a literature review, we discuss how changes in water level and salinity related to climate change and water abstraction affect the ecosystem structure, function, biodiversity and ecological state of lakes and reservoirs. We discuss mitigation measures to counteract the negative effects on ecological status that are likely to result from changes in climate and water abstraction practices. Finally, we highlight research required to improve knowledge of the impacts of anthropogenically induced changes on lake water level and consequent changes in salinity.

Climate change and water in the UK - past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make.

A comparative review of recovery processes in rivers, lakes, estuarine and coastal waters

The European Water Framework Directive aims to improve ecological status within river basins. This requires knowledge of responses of aquatic assemblages to recovery processes that occur after measures have been taken to reduce major stressors. A systematic literature review comparatively assesses recovery measures across the four major water categories. The main drivers of degradation stem primarily from human population growth and increases in land use and water use changes. These drivers and pressures are the same in all four water categories: rivers, lakes, transitional and coastal waters. Few studies provide evidence of how ecological knowledge might enhance restoration success. Other major bottlenecks are the lack of data, effects mostly occur only in short-term and at local scale, the organism group(s) selected to assess recovery does not always provide the most appropriate response, the time lags of recovery are highly variable, and most restoration projects incorporate restoration of abiotic conditions and do not include abiotic extremes and biological processes. Restoration ecology is just emerging as a field in aquatic ecology and is a site, time and organism group-specific activity. It is therefore difficult to generalise. Despite the many studies only few provide evidence of how ecological knowledge might enhance restoration success.

Assessing the ecological status in the context of the European Water Framework Directive: Where do we go now?

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) is now well established as the key management imperative in river basins across Europe. However, there remain significant concerns with the way WFD is implemented and there is now a need for water managers and scientists to communicate better in order to find solutions to these concerns. To address this, a Science-Policy Interface (SPI) activity was launched in 2010 led by Directorate-General for Research and Innovation and Onema (the French national agency for water and aquatic ecosystems), which provided an interactive forum to connect scientists and WFD end-users. One major aim of the SPI activity was to establish a list of the most crucial research and development needs for enhancing WFD implementation. This paper synthesises the recommendations from this event highlighting 10 priority issues relating to ecological status. For lakes, temporary streams and transitional and coastal waters, WFD implementation still suffers from a lack of WFD-compliant bioassessment methods. For rivers, special attention is required to assess the ecological impacts of hydromorphological alterations on biological communities, notably those affecting river continuity and riparian covering. Spatial extrapolation tools are needed in order to evaluate ecological status for water bodies for which no data are available. The need for more functional bioassessment tools as complements to usual WFD-compliant tools, and to connect clearly good ecological state, biodiversity and ecosystem services when implementing WFD were also identified as crucial issues.

Climate change and the future of freshwater biodiversity in Europe: a primer for policy-makers.

Abstract Earths climate is changing, and by the end of the 21st century in Europe, average temperatures are likely to have risen by at least 2 °C, and more likely 4 °C with associated effects on patterns of precipitation and the frequency of extreme weather events. Attention among policy-makers is divided about how to minimise the change, how to mitigate its effects, how to maintain the natural resources on which societies depend and how to adapt human societies to the changes. Natural systems are still seen, through a long tradition of conservation management that is largely species-based, as amenable to adaptive management, and biodiversity, mostly perceived as the richness of plant and vertebrate communities, often forms a focus for planning. We argue that prediction of particular species changes will be possible only in a minority of cases but that prediction of trends in general structure and operation of four generic freshwater ecosystems (erosive rivers, depositional floodplain rivers, shallow lakes and deep lakes) in three broad zones of Europe (Mediterranean, Central and Arctic-Boreal) is practicable. Maintenance and rehabilitation of ecological structures and operations will inevitably and incidentally embrace restoration of appropriate levels of species biodiversity. Using expert judgement, based on an extensive literature, we have outlined, primarily for lay policy makers, the pristine features of these systems, their states under current human impacts, how these states are likely to alter with a warming of 2 °C to 4 °C and what might be done to mitigate this. We have avoided technical terms in the interests of communication, and although we have included full referencing as in academic papers, we have eliminated degrees of detail that could confuse broad policy-making.

Threatened and stressed mountain lakes of Europe: Assessment and progress

Mountain regions are cold environments that are hostile to human occupation and widely regarded as places where the air is clean, water is pure and ecosystems are pristine. Yet many mountain regions, especially in Europe, are far from pristine. In the 1980s, research showed that mountain lakes were especially vulnerable to acid deposition and sediment core studies at many sites demonstrated that some mountain lakes had become acidified over the course of the last century. Since then, studies of the water chemistry, biology and history of lakes across the different European mountain regions have increased our understanding of the processes within these systems, their ecological condition and the threats facing them. These studies have demonstrated that: i. gradients of sulphur, nitrogen, metals and persistent organic pollutant deposition occur from relatively uncontaminated regions in Spain and Central Norway to regions of heavy pollution loading in central and eastern Europe; ii. nitrate and sulphate concentrations in lake water reflect the gradients in atmospheric deposition; iii. concentrations of mercury, lead and cadmium in fish tissue show marked regional differences; iv. the spatial pattern of organochlorine concentrations in fish and in sediments follow the pattern for other pollutants, although there is also good evidence for the selective cold trapping of some compounds both at high latitudes and at high altitudes; v. fish suffer physiological stress in mountain lake-water of low ionic strength; vi. climate change over the last century is likely to have induced significant changes in lake ice-cover and water column stratification and mixing in some regions and these have in turn influenced the structure and productivity of biological communities; This paper provides a review of the research undertaken on European mountain lakes over the past 30 years. In particular, it highlights the stresses faced by these vulnerable systems and the effects these have had, continue to have, and are likely to have on mountain lake ecosystems in future.

Diel surface temperature range scales with lake size

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored.

Predicting Freshwater Critical Loads of Acidification at the Catchment Scale: An Empirical Model

Current applications of the critical loads concept are geared primarily toward targeting emission control strategies at a national and international level. Maps of critical loads for freshwaters have been produced in grid form based on water samples of representative sites within each grid square. However, the water chemistry data required to calculate freshwater critical loads are not always readily available at a national level and maps are therefore limited to catchments where such data exist. This paper describes the development of an approach that uses nationally available secondary data to predict freshwater critical loads for catchments lacking the appropriate water chemistry information. An empirical statistical model is calibrated using data from 78 catchments throughout Scotland. Water chemistry for each catchment has been determined. Each catchment is characterized according to a number of attributes. Redundancy analysis of these data shows clear relationships between catchment attributes and the critical load derived from the water chemistry. The key variables that explain most of the variation in critical load relate to soil, geology and land use within the catchment. Using these variables as predictors in a regression analysis, the critical load can be predicted across a broad gradient of sensitivity (R2adj=0.81). The predictive power of the model was maintained when different combinations of explanatory variables were used. This accords the approach a degree of flexibility in that model parameterization can be geared toward availability of secondary data. There are limitations with the model as presently calibrated. However, the approach offers considerable scope for environmental managers to undertake national inventories of catchment sensitivity and specific assessments of individual catchments.

The Development of a GIS-Based Inventory of Standing Waters in Great Britain together with a Risk-Based Prioritisation Protocol

An inventory of standing waters (freshwater lakes and lochs) wasderived from Ordnance Survey digital map data at a scale of 1:50 000 and represents the most comprehensive survey of its kind for Great Britain. The inventory includes 43 738 water bodies in England, Scotland, Wales and the Isle of Man and contains basic physical data such as location, surface area, perimeter and altitude. Catchment areas were computed for water bodies with a surface area larger than 1 ha from a digital terrain model (DTM) using customised routines in a geographical information system (GIS). The resulting polygons were then used to derive catchment-related information from a variety of national datasets including population density, livestock density, land cover, solid and drift geology, meteorological data, freshwater sensitivity status, acid deposition and conservation status. Using data derived from the inventory a risk-based prioritisation protocol was developed to identify standing waters at risk of harm from acidification and eutrophication. This information is required by the Environment Agency, Scottish Environmental Protection Agency and the U.K. statutory conservation bodies to co-ordinate actions and monitor change under international, European and national legislation.