Martin L. Jones

Impacts of fertilization on water quality of a drained pine plantation: a worst case scenario.

Intensive plantation forestry will be increasingly important in the next 50 yr to meet the high demand for domestic wood in the United States. However, forest management practices can substantially influence downstream water quality and ecology. This study analyses, the effect of fertilization on effluent water quality of a low gradient drained coastal pine plantation in Carteret County, North Carolina using a paired watershed approach. The plantation consists of three watersheds, two mature (31-yr) and one young (8-yr) (age at treatment). One of the mature watersheds was commercially thinned in 2002. The mature unthinned watershed was designated as the control. The young and mature-thinned watersheds were fertilized at different rates with Arborite (Encee Chemical Sales, Inc., Bridgeton, NC), and boron. The outflow rates and nutrient concentrations in water drained from each of the watersheds were measured. Nutrient concentrations and loadings were analyzed using general linear models (GLM). Three large storm events occurred within 47 d of fertilization, which provided a worst case scenario for nutrient export from these watersheds to the receiving surface waters. Results showed that average nutrient concentrations soon after fertilization were significantly (alpha = 0.05) higher on both treatment watersheds than during any other period during the study. This increase in nutrient export was short lived and nutrient concentrations and loadings were back to prefertilization levels as soon as 3 mo after fertilization. Additionally, the mature-thinned watershed presented higher average nutrient concentrations and loadings when compared to the young watershed, which received a reduced fertilizer rate than the mature-thinned watershed.

Perfluorinated alkyl acids in plasma of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) from Florida and South Carolina

The present study aimed to quantitate 15 perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) in 125 adult American alligators at 12 sites across the southeastern United States. Of those 15 PFAAs, 9 were detected in 65% to 100% of samples: perfluorooctanoic acid, perfluorononanoic acid, perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnA), perfluorododecanoic acid, perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTriA), perfluorotetradecanoic acid, perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). Males (across all sites) showed significantly higher concentrations of 4 PFAAs: PFOS (p = 0.01), PFDA (p = 0.0003), PFUnA (p = 0.021), and PFTriA (p = 0.021). Concentrations of PFOS, PFHxS, and PFDA in plasma were significantly different among the sites in each sex. Alligators at both Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (FL, USA) and Kiawah Nature Conservancy (SC, USA) exhibited some of the highest PFOS concentrations (medians of 99.5 ng/g and 55.8 ng/g, respectively) in plasma measured to date in a crocodilian species. A number of positive correlations between PFAAs and snout-vent length were observed in both sexes, suggesting that PFAA body burdens increase with increasing size. In addition, several significant correlations among PFAAs in alligator plasma may suggest conserved sources of PFAAs at each site throughout the greater study area. The present study is the first to report PFAAs in American alligators, to reveal potential PFAA hot spots in Florida and South Carolina, and to provide a contaminant of concern when assessing anthropogenic impacts on ecosystem health. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:917-925. Published 2016 Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of SETAC. This article is a US government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.

Prophet inequalities for cost of observation stopping problems

Comparisons are made between the expected gain of a prophet (an observer with complete foresight) and the maximal expected gain of a gambler (using only non-anticipating stopping times) observing a sequence of independent, uniformly bounded random variables where a non-negative fixed cost is charged for each observation. Sharp universal bounds are obtained under various restrictions on the cost and the length of the sequence. For example, it is shown for X1, X2, ... independent, [0, 1]-valued random variables that for all c >= 0 and all n >= 1 that E(max1

Neutral processes and species sorting in benthic microalgal community assembly: effects of tidal resuspension.

Benthic microalgae (BMA) provide vital food resources for heterotrophs and stabilize sediments with their extracellular secretions. A central goal in ecology is to understand how processes such as species interactions and dispersal, contribute to observed patterns of species abundance and distribution. Our objectives were to assess the effects of sediment resuspension on microalgal community structure. We tested whether taxa‐abundance distributions could be predicted using neutral community models (NCMs) and also specific hypotheses about passive migration: (i) As migration decreases in sediment patches, BMA α‐diversity will decrease, and (ii) As migration decreases, BMA community dissimilarity (β‐diversity) will increase. Co‐occurrence indices (checkerboard score and variance ratio) were also computed to test for deterministic factors, such as competition and niche differentiation, in shaping communities. Two intertidal sites (mudflat and sand bar) differing in resuspension regime were sampled throughout the tidal cycle. Fluorometry and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis were utilized to investigate diatom community structure. Observed taxa‐abundances fit those predicted from NCMs reasonably well (R2 of 0.68–0.93), although comparisons of observed local communities to artificial randomly assembled communities rejected the null hypothesis that diatom communities were assembled solely by stochastic processes. No co‐occurrence tests indicated a significant role for competitive exclusion or niche partitioning in microalgal community assembly. In general, predictions about relationships between migration and species diversity were supported for local community dynamics. BMA at low tide (lowest migration) exhibited reduced α‐diversity as compared to periods of immersion at both mudflat and sand bar sites. β‐diversity was higher during low tide emersion on the mudflat, but did not differ temporally at the sand bar site. In between‐site metacommunity comparisons, low‐ and high‐resuspension sites exhibited distinct community compositions while the low‐energy mudflats contained higher microalgal biomass and greater α‐diversity. To our knowledge this is the first study to test the relevance of neutral processes in structuring marine microalgal communities. Our results demonstrate a prominent role for stochastic factors in structuring local BMA community assembly, although unidentified nonrandom processes also appear to play some role. High passive migration, in particular, appears to help maintain species diversity and structure communities in both sand and muddy habitats.

Probability 1/e.

Summary Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

On the Worth of Perfect Information in Bandits with Random Discounting

Abstract A discrete-time bandit process is a sequential decision problem in which one selects from a finite number of stochastic processes at each stage, and receives as a reward the product of the value of the observed process and a discount factor. In the classical formulation of the problem, the sequence of discount factors is known in advance, but the distributions governing the observations on the stochastic processes are not known. In this paper we consider the case in which the discount sequence is random and compare the reward of observers who have information about the discount sequence from the start with those who do not. In particular, we obtain bounds on the expected rewards for processes in which the discount sequence is random.