Martin Petri

Energy Sector Quasi-Fiscal Activities in the Countries of the Former Soviet Union

A decade into the transition, many of the successor states of the former Soviet Union (FSU) continue to use energy sector quasi-fiscal activities (QFAs), especially low energy prices and the toleration of payment arrears, to provide large implicit and untargeted subsidies. These activities disguise the overall size of the government, cause overconsumption and waste, and contribute to macroeconomic imbalances. This paper analyses such activities in FSU countries, with particular emphasis on two case studies (Azerbaijan and Ukraine). The papers policy conclusions point to the need to increase energy prices, combined with a strengthening of safety nets to protect the poor, better enforcement of payment discipline, and more efforts to achieve fiscal transparency.

The Jordanian Stock Market: Should You Invest in it for Risk Diversification or Performance?

We analyze the performance of the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) and its integration with other markets. Using cointegration techniques, we find that the ASE and other Arab stock markets are cointegrated, which implies little long-run risk diversification. However, there is no cointegrating relationship between the ASE and other emerging or developed stock markets. Two of the main regional stock markets-Kuwait and Saudi Arabia-Grangercause the Jordanian stock market. The paper finds that there may have been some overvaluation at end-2005, but that the market correction in early 2006 and strong recent earnings growth have reduced overvaluation concerns.

Public Debt and Fiscal Vulnerability in the Middle East

Public debt in the Middle East increased during the mid-1990s mainly because of fiscal expansions. It decreased in recent years, thanks to high oil revenue, economic growth, some primary non-oil fiscal adjustment, and debt relief. While countries in the Middle East appear to have adequately reacted to high indebtedness in the past, public debt levels remain uncomfortably high in many, particularly non-oil producing countries and middle income oil producers. Non-oil countries adjust mainly by increasing revenues, whereas oil countries adjust expenditure. For non-oil producing countries, substantial fiscal adjustment would be needed to bring debt down to below 50 percent of GDP. Oil producers as a group appear to follow sustainable, though procyclical, fiscal policies. Middle-income (but not high-income) oil producing countries would need to adjust somewhat to bring their policies in line with the permanent oil income benchmark.

Inclusive Growth and the Incidence of Fiscal Policy in Mauritius; Much Progress, But More Could be Done

Using data from three household surveys, we review whether growth in Mauritius was inclusive and discuss the incidence of public expenditures and taxes. Generally, Mauritius enjoys an even income distribution and low rates of poverty. Nevertheless, over the 2000s, despite overall progress, the benefits of growth appear to have become more skewed. Employment income is the main contributor to inequality in Mauritius. Social protection expenditures reduce poverty and inequality, but could be better targeted, particularly for pensions. Income taxes are progressive, though given their small relative weight they have a negligible impact on income distribution. The VAT appears relatively progressive compared to other developing countries, although its impact on the overall distribution is also small. With better targeting of the sizable social spending, significant further progress in poverty alleviation could be achieved.

Pension Reforms in Mauritius; Fair and Fast—Balancing Social Protection and Fiscal Sustainability

Despite important past reforms, the ageing population of Mauritius threatens the sustainability of its pension system. This paper examines how pension spending might increase without reforms and discusses reforms options. The findings suggest that unifying the retirement age and indexing it to life expectancy would contribute most significantly to secure and sustainable pensions. The poverty reducing objective of the universal pension can be improved by better targeting. The old age protection objective of the National Pension Fund could be strengthened by increasing contribution and replacement rates. Implementing changes faster should result in less drastic future changes and fairer outcomes.