Martin Predavec

The contribution of community wisdom to conservation ecology

Scientists have traditionally collected data on whether a population is increasing, decreasing, or staying the same, but such studies are often limited by geographic scale and time frame. This means that for many species, understanding of trends comes from only part of their ranges at particular periods. Working with citizen scientists has the potential to overcome these limits. Citizen science has the added benefit of exposing citizens to the scientific process and engaging them in management outcomes. We examined a different way of using citizen scientists (instead of data collection). We asked community members to answer a question directly and thus examined whether community wisdom can inform conservation. We reviewed the results of 3 mail-in surveys that asked community members to say whether they thought koala populations were increasing, decreasing, or staying the same. We then compared the survey results with population trends derived from more traditional research. Population trends identified through community wisdom were similar to the trends identified by traditional research. The community wisdom surveys, however, allowed the question to be addressed at much broader geographical scales and time frames. Studies that apply community wisdom have the benefit of engaging a broad section of the community in conservation research and education and therefore in the political process of conserving species.

Interpreting patterns of population change in koalas from long-term datasets in Coffs Harbour on the north coast of New South Wales

We examined a long-term, repeat dataset for the koala population within Coffs Harbour Local Government Area. Analyses of these data have led to the conclusion that, following a perceived population decline in the 1980s, the koala population of Coffs Harbour has endured between 1990 and 2011 and showed no evidence of a precipitous decline during this period. Rather, the population change is best characterised as stable to slowly declining. This conclusion appears to contradict a common view of recent koala population declines on the north coast of New South Wales. There are four possible explanations for the population’s apparent stability: that conservation efforts and planning regulations have been effective; that surviving adults are persisting in existing home ranges in remnant habitat; that the broader Coffs Harbour population is operating as a ‘source and sink’ metapopulation; and/or that the standard survey methods employed are not sufficiently sensitive to detect small population changes. These findings do not mean there is no need for future conservation efforts aimed at koalas in Coffs Harbour; however, such efforts will need to better understand and account for a koala population that can be considered to be stable to slowly declining.

Using repeat citizen science surveys of koalas to assess their population trend in the north-west of New South Wales: scale matters

Scale matters when assessing population trends. Whereas traditional field-based ecological surveys are generally restricted to small temporal and spatial scales, community (citizen science) surveys allow wider consideration of population trends. We used repeat community surveys (completed in 2006 and 2015) to assess population change in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) across an area of 36u2009900u2009km2 in the north-west of New South Wales. In both community surveys we asked respondents to record the location of their koala sightings as well as those of eight other common species. We further asked respondents about their perceptions of population change. Through three different measures (likelihood of koala occurrence, number of koalas observed per respondent, and the perception of population change), we found that koala numbers were declining across the region during the study period. The timing and broad and consistent geographic spread of the decline suggests that broad-scale environmental factors, such as weather, are important drivers of this change. This information will allow managers to place conservation efforts into an appropriate spatial context. While such information sourced from the community can provide critical information on threatened species, including the koala, this study highlights the limits of such information.

Mapping the likelihood of koalas across New South Wales for use in Private Native Forestry: developing a simple, species distribution model that deals with opportunistic data

In Private Native Forestry in New South Wales, species-specific provisions in the code of practice are triggered by the presence of koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus), based on existing database records in the Atlas of NSW Wildlife. Whereas Species Distribution Modelling allows questions to be posed regarding the distribution of a species, and how it relates to environmental variables and threats, the key question, in many management situations, is whether or not a species is, or has been, present at a particular location, rather than the overall predicted distribution of the species. This is particularly the case for such a high-profile species as the koala. In this project, we developed a simple distribution model for the koala in New South Wales based on the proportion of koala records from within a suite of mammal records in 10u2009kmu2009×u200910u2009km cells. This provides a measure of the likelihood of koalas being present. At the same time it allows deficiencies in the data to be highlighted, and recommendations made for further survey. This model and map will allow the potential for more robust and transparent decisions to be made regarding koala protection in areas proposed for private native forestry.

The remaining koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) of the Pilliga forests, north-west New South Wales: Refugial persistence or a population on the road to extinction?

In the 1990s, the Pilliga forests were carrying the largest population of koalas west of the Great Dividing Range in New South Wales (NSW). Whereas the NSW koala population in its entirety was thought to be in decline, the Pilliga population stood out as potentially increasing. By 2007, anecdotal evidence suggested that the population was in decline. We undertook surveys of koalas in the Pilliga forests that repeated surveys undertaken between 1991 and 2011. We found that koalas had declined and were found in only 21% of sites in which they were observed in the initial surveys – by any measure, a 5-fold drop in occupancy in less than two decades is severe. Declines occurred evenly across the Pilliga, with persistence at a site seemingly related to a high initial density of koalas rather than to a slower rate of decline. Sites where koalas persisted were characterised as having higher temperatures and lower rainfall relative to other sites, being close to drainage lines with deeper soils and having a lower occurrence of fire. This pattern fits with the observation in the recent surveys that koalas were next to drainage lines in the western half of the Pilliga and fits with the suggestion that koalas show refugial persistence. Recovery from this point is not assured and will depend on how we manage the landscape, particularly with the threat of climate change. This will likely require active management within an adaptive management framework, such as restoration of refuges, and not simply habitat reservation.

Daylight saving time can decrease the frequency of wildlife-vehicle collisions.

Daylight saving time (DST) could reduce collisions with wildlife by changing the timing of commuter traffic relative to the behaviour of nocturnal animals. To test this idea, we tracked wild koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in southeast Queensland, where koalas have declined by 80% in the last 20 years, and compared their movements with traffic patterns along roads where they are often killed. Using a simple model, we found that DST could decrease collisions with koalas by 8% on weekdays and 11% at weekends, simply by shifting the timing of traffic relative to darkness. Wildlife conservation and road safety should become part of the debate on DST.

An introduction to Dangerous ideas in zoology

ABSTRACT Dangerous ideas are those that challenge the status quo, ignore political correctness or, if followed, lead to an unsettling series of consequences (Pinker 2006). As practising zoologists, our ongoing concern relates to the long-term survival of our native wildlife across all land tenures and the marine environment, and protecting natural areas in perpetuity. We hoped that a day of dangerous zoological ideas would stimulate fresh thinking and discussion about how to meet the challenges in using science to help conserve wildlife in the 21st century. While we as editors have a view on what comprises a dangerous idea (and a solid zoological idea), we were most reluctant to circumscribe our speakers and their papers. As a consequence, the papers in this volume reveal a remarkable take on what is dangerous, or at least what is considered dangerous and by whom. Some authors pose dangerous new ideas to solve difficult zoological challenges, others highlighted dangers in the misinterpretation of science ...