Martin Wæver Pedersen

Damped trophic cascades driven by fishing in model marine ecosystems

The largest perturbation on upper trophic levels of many marine ecosystems stems from fishing. The reaction of the ecosystem goes beyond the trophic levels directly targeted by the fishery. This reaction has been described either as a change in slope of the overall size spectrum or as a trophic cascade triggered by the removal of top predators. Here we use a novel size- and trait-based model to explore how marine ecosystems might react to perturbations from different types of fishing pressure. The model explicitly resolves the whole life history of fish, from larvae to adults. The results show that fishing does not change the overall slope of the size spectrum, but depletes the largest individuals and induces trophic cascades. A trophic cascade can propagate both up and down in trophic levels driven by a combination of changes in predation mortality and food limitation. The cascade is damped as it comes further away from the perturbed trophic level. Fishing on several trophic levels leads to a disappearance of the signature of the trophic cascade. Differences in fishing patterns among ecosystems might influence whether a trophic cascade is observed.

Analysing migrations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua in the north-east Atlantic Ocean: then, now and the future

The application of data storage tags bears the potential for a quantum leap in the research on fish migrations, because not only first-capture and recapture positions are known, but at least theoretically, the migration path during the period at large can be reconstructed. Position, however, cannot be measured directly but has to be estimated using the available data on light, temperature, pressure and salinity. The reconstructed locations based on advanced estimation techniques have been termed geolocations. Examples are discussed which illustrate the applicability of geolocations in individual path descriptions, separation of reproductively isolated populations, timing and areas of spawning, tidal transport and use of protected areas. The examples are based on archival tag data from the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Barents Sea and Faroese and Icelandic Waters. Besides presenting the state-of-the-art geolocations for cod Gadus morhua in the north-east Atlantic Ocean, the major aim of this review is to raise awareness of gaps in knowledge and to identify ideas for new research.

Geolocating Fish Using Hidden Markov Models and Data Storage Tags

Geolocation of fish based on data from archival tags typically requires a statistical analysis to reduce the effect of measurement errors. In this paper we present a novel technique for this analysis, one based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM’s). We assume that the actual path of the fish is generated by a biased random walk. The HMM methodology produces, for each time step, the probability that the fish resides in each grid cell. Because there is no Monte Carlo step in our technique, we are able to estimate parameters within the likelihood framework. The method does not require the distribution to be Gaussian or belong to any other of the usual families of distributions and can thus address constraints from shorelines and other nonlinear effects; the method can and does produce bimodal distributions. We discuss merits and limitations of the method, and perspectives for the more general problem of inference in state-space models of animals. The technique can be applied to geolocation based on light, on tidal patterns, or measurement of other variables that vary with space. We illustrate the method through application to a simulated data set where geolocation relies on depth data exclusively.

Performance assessment of two whole-lake acoustic positional telemetry systems--is reality mining of free-ranging aquatic animals technologically possible?

Acoustic positional telemetry systems (APTs) represent a novel approach to study the behaviour of free ranging aquatic animals in the wild at unprecedented detail. System manufactures promise remarkably high temporal and spatial resolution. However, the performance of APTs has rarely been rigorously tested at the level of entire ecosystems. Moreover, the effect of habitat structure on system performance has only been poorly documented. Two APTs were deployed to cover two small lakes and a series of standardized stationary tests were conducted to assess system performance. Furthermore, a number of tow tests were conducted to simulate moving fish. Based on these data, we quantified system performance in terms of data yield, accuracy and precision as a function of structural complexity in relation to vegetation. Mean data yield of the two systems was 40 % (Lake1) and 60 % (Lake2). Average system accuracy (acc) and precision (prec) were Lake1: acc = 3.1 m, prec = 1.1 m; Lake2: acc = 1.0 m, prec = 0.2 m. System performance was negatively affected by structural complexity, i.e., open water habitats yielded far better performance than structurally complex vegetated habitats. Post-processing greatly improved data quality, and sub-meter accuracy and precision were, on average, regularly achieved in Lake2 but remained the exception in the larger and structurally more complex Lake1. Moving transmitters were tracked well by both systems. Whereas overestimation of moved distance is inevitable for stationary transmitters due to accumulation of small tracking errors, moving transmitters can result in both over- and underestimation of distances depending on circumstances. Both deployed APTs were capable of providing high resolution positional data at the scale of entire lakes and are suitable systems to mine the reality of free ranging fish in their natural environment. This opens important opportunities to advance several fields of study such as movement ecology and animal social networks in the wild. It is recommended that thorough performance tests are conducted in any study utilizing APTs. The APTs tested here appear best suited for studies in structurally simple ecosystems or for studying pelagic species. In such situations, the data quality provided by the APTs is exceptionally high.

Nonlinear tracking in a diffusion process with a Bayesian filter and the finite element method

A new approach to nonlinear state estimation and object tracking from indirect observations of a continuous time process is examined. Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are employed to model the dynamics of the unobservable state. Tracking problems in the plane subject to boundaries on the state-space do not in general provide analytical solutions. A widely used numerical approach is the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method which relies on stochastic simulations to approximate state densities. For off-line analysis, however, accurate smoothed state density and parameter estimation can become complicated using SMC because Monte Carlo randomness is introduced. The finite element (FE) method solves the Kolmogorov equations of the SDE numerically on a triangular unstructured mesh for which boundary conditions to the state-space are simple to incorporate. The FE approach to nonlinear state estimation is suited for off-line data analysis because the computed smoothed state densities, maximum a posteriori parameter estimates and state sequence are deterministic conditional on the finite element mesh and the observations. The proposed method is conceptually similar to existing point-mass filtering methods, but is computationally more advanced and generally applicable. The performance of the FE estimators in relation to SMC and to the resolution of the spatial discretization is examined empirically through simulation. A real-data case study involving fish tracking is also analysed.

Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine science than in general marine science indicating a growing prioritisation of research with a climate change focus. The composition of scientific disciplines producing climate change related publications, which initially was dominated by physical sciences, shifted toward a distribution with almost even representation of physical and biological sciences with social sciences constituting a minor constant proportion. These trends suggest that the predominantly model-based directions of the IPCC have favoured the more quantitatively oriented natural sciences rather than the qualitative traditions of social sciences. In addition, despite being an often declared prerequisite to successful climate science, we found surprisingly limited progress in implementing interdisciplinary research indicating that further initiatives nurturing scientific interactions are required.