Marvin Baker Schaffer

The great gas pipeline game: monopolistic expansion of Russia's Gazprom into European markets

Purpose – Russian dominance of the Eurasian natural gas delivery system has put the independence of the EUs foreign policy at risk. Although Europe is struggling to counteract the threat, Russia appears to be winning the game. This paper aims to recommend significant measures to reverse the trend.Design/methodology/approach – This is a discussion paper exploring the issues involved.Findings – Russias stranglehold already has acquired 25 percent of the European market. Moreover, it is installing four new pipelines, and plans to increase its market share substantially. In response, Europe is building or planning three new pipelines. The author recommends additionally: strategic gas reserves, anti‐trust prosecution, financial and political inducements, and offering WTO membership to Russia in exchange for concessions.Practical implications – Europe can win the great natural gas pipeline game if it is played with commitment. Europe must focus on the big prize, natural gas independence.Originality/value – Th...

A Model of 21st Century Counterinsurgency Warfare

The insurgency warfare being practiced by global terrorists in the 21st Century is put in a historical context and modeled mathematically. The most widely known insurgency model is the “fish in the sea” formulation attributed to Mao Tse-tung. Fundamentally, it is a phased attrition model that can be described by variations of the Lanchester equations. In a collective sense, much of the Vietnam War fits that formulation. However, the 21st Century has featured a different type of insurgency where attrition is not the decisive factor on either side. Todays insurgencies are psychological wars of political endurance, not attrition. They require different mathematics. The mathematical formulation of 21st Century counterinsurgency warfare contains two stochastic time series, the first dealing with defeat and the second success. The defeat portion deals with the likelihood of precipitous troop withdrawals permitting terrorist insurgents to declare victory in a de facto sense. The defeat probability roughly mirrors public opinion polls. Public opinion polls are probabilistic because they are heavily influenced by short-term unpredictable events, some detrimental to the war effort and some supporting it. In a sense, this is similar to the fluctuations of the stock market or exchange rate variations. They are also influenced by the duration of the war and accumulated casualties, both in a negative sense. Consequently, the defeat probability trends upward asymptotically toward unity over time although the instantaneous values cluster above and below the trend curve. In a democracy, decision makers or funding bodies can resist adverse polls but not indefinitely. If war support polls are heavily negative, it is probable that decision makers will eventually move to cut their losses and pull out. The second portion of the model independently deals with success by counterinsurgency forces; i.e., a level of stability and security that permits at least a partial, phased troop draw down. It is based on estimates of the strength and quality of the host country military and police forces, the level of insurgent-initiated violence, the state of the host country economy, the services provided by the host government, and the willingness of the host government to address the insurgency in an even-handed manner. The success model resembles the Hamlet Evaluation System used during the Vietnam War. The instantaneous measures of success fluctuate above and below the trend curve with a variance that can be small, approaching determinacy. The success model has fixed, predetermined benchmarks that can but may not be achieved depending on the level of effort relative to the insurgent opposition. Both parts of the model deal with counterinsurgent troop withdrawals, one precipitous and one gradual and phased. In neither of the cases considered, de facto defeat or phased withdrawal, does the model deal with “military” defeat or victory. If the type of insurgencies encountered in the 21st Century become the norm, military defeat and victory are irrelevant.

Water and energy for the Middle East: currency for peace

Purpose – The objective of this article is to propose the use of nuclear power to provide electricity and wide‐scale desalination to meet future population growth in Israel and a Palestinian State.Design/methodology/approach – The extent of future water and power shortages in Israel and a Palestinian States expounded in the article and various methods for alleviating these shortages are explored. Comparisons are made with historical approaches.Findings – Nuclear pebble‐bed technology is found to be the most cost‐effective way to energize future water and power needs. It is safe, non‐polluting, and terrorist resistant.Originality/value – This article makes the case that abundant water and power in the Middle East is both a pre‐requisite and a stimulant for peace in the region.

Speculation on the long‐term future of Israel and a Palestinian state

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to postulate a political structure for Israel and a Palestinian State 25‐50 years from now.Design/methodology/approach – The paper speculates that a Middle East Union modeled after the EU could enable stability and prosperity on a scale not now envisioned.Findings – The paper speculates that oil will no longer be the global fuel of choice in 50 years. It is also speculated that long‐ and short‐range missile defenses will be reliable unlike todays systems. These will create new opportunities for successful collaboration in the Middle East.Originality/value – The paper speculates that transportation, water, and power will be the key new elements of infrastructure needed to facilitate a Middle East Union. Nuclear desalination is postulated for the water and power and a light rail system connecting 15 cities in the Palestinian areas will be required.

Nuclear power for clean, safe and secure energy independence

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review technologies for nuclear power and to assess their suitability in pursuit of clean, safe and secure energy independence.Design/methodology/approach – Technologies and potentials associated with the industry standard, light water reactors (LWR), as well as fast breeder reactors and TRISO‐fueled reactors, are reviewed. The key features and issues include: waste disposal and toxicity, heat pollution, vulnerability to terrorist attack, proliferation of weapon materials, global fuel depletion, safety, and cost.Findings – The paper finds that, on balance, TRISO‐fueled reactors with helium as coolant offer solutions to the issues causing public nuclear concerns, and since they have significant cost benefits they should be the design of choice for new installations.Originality/value – Nuclear power can make a contribution to rising energy demands but raise many concerns. This paper considers the principal types of nuclear reactors and analyzes them for their potent...

Powering the world with nuclear energy – past, present, and inevitable future

Purpose – The article aims to explore the potential for pebble‐bed high‐temperature gas reactor (HTGR) technology to meet possible future energy shortages.Design/methodology/approach – The historical evolution of nuclear power is reviewed followed by empirical data that demonstrate the finite nature of oil and gas reserves. The characteristics of HTGR technology are then explored.Findings – A pebble‐bed HTGR ameliorates nuclear waste disposal issues, does not disgorge large quantities of excess heat, is terrorist‐resistant, solves persistent problems concerning weapon proliferation, and is inherently safe.Originality/value – The article makes the case for the US Department of Energy to take the lead in demonstrating a pebble‐bed HTGR plant to overcome industry reluctance to invest in this technology.

Nuclear power for the twenty‐first century

Improved nuclear reactor configurations that address major concerns of environmentalists and safety analysts are discussed. In addition to social acceptance, these new modes of power generation have economic potential to become the dominant producers of energy in the twenty‐first century. The class of power generation with this promise is the high temperature gas reactor (HTGR); the variant we focus on is the pebble‐bed modular reactor (PBMR). We also focus on using nuclear power as an energy source for desalinating seawater. Finally, the case is made that HTGR reactors are ideal for supplying the high‐temperature heat needed for manufacturing molecular hydrogen, a leading candidate for clean fuel consumption. These three themes are developed in a broad context with the objective of recommending policy actions dealing with global warming, public health, and economic opportunity.

Our nuclear future: an era of clean energy abundance

This analysis develops and predicts a politically controversial idea, namely that nuclear fission power will be the dominant energy resource of the 21st century. Abundant energy enables higher and more efficient utilization of resources. Energy drives the engines of industrial and food production, transportation, building construction, space heating, transformation of landscapes, recreation, etc. This article compares other energy alternatives with the potential of nuclear fission power. It predicts that several hundred nuclear plants, each nominally of 10 gigawatts capacity, could supply the world’s energy requirements without creation of polluting greenhouse gases. Moreover, the superabundance of power this would represent could feed the world, supply its drinking water, and raise the per capita income and standard of living to levels where total human population would level off at an acceptable number. However, realization of such benefits requires unprecedented world cooperation, and these issues are ...

Moral nuclear deterrence – the ascendancy of missile defense

Purpose – The strategic standoff, known as mutual assured destruction (MAD) by the USA and nuclear parity by Russia, has been overtaken by the advance of technology and the demise of the Soviet Union. Pacing technology is being exploited by an increasingly mature missile defense. If implemented comprehensively, it could have widespread and revolutionary ramifications. This paper seeks to address these issues.Design/methodology/approach – The article describes the historical background of Americas nuclear strategy, from Eisenhower to the Obama Administration. It then traces the history of missile defense and arms limitation and develops the context of the interaction between them. It is found that nuclear arsenals should not be reduced to zero because that would put rogue nations in a position where they could intimidate the world. Finally, the evolution of computer chip technology, as embodied by Moores law, is traced. The recommendation is made to proceed with the reduction of nuclear stockpiles to the...

Modeling and Simulation in Counter-Insurgency/Irregular Warfare

Counter-insurgency warfare in the 21st century has morphed from an attrition focus to an explicit, concentrated attempt to capture the support of the general population of the host country. The principal efforts by coalition forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, are concerned with nation building, infrastructure development and enhancement, reinforcing the effectiveness of national military and police forces to improve population security, and motivating the host population with health, educational and jobs programs. Attrition-oriented activities are more or less restricted to the insurgency leadership. The insurgents, on the other hand, concentrate on terrorizing elements of the population who cooperate with the coalition, producing a steady (albeit small) stream of coalition casualties, and competing for the allegiance of the locals with material subsidies. Since neither side is attempting to reduce the opposition force by attrition, the conflict becomes one of endurance. It is a struggle pitting the allegiance of the host people against the patience of the underlying coalition force domestic population. The other characteristic of 21st century counter-insurgency is that it is increasingly complex with numerous players. An incomplete list is: