Mary Kilonzo

Systematic review and economic modelling of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of non-surgical treatments for women with stress urinary incontinence.

OBJECTIVES To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of non-surgical treatments for women with stress urinary incontinence (SUI) through systematic review and economic modelling. DATA SOURCES The Cochrane Incontinence Group Specialised Register, electronic databases and the websites of relevant professional organisations and manufacturers, and the following databases: CINAHL, EMBASE, BIOSIS, Science Citation Index and Social Science Citation Index, Current Controlled Trials, ClinicalTrials.gov and the UKCRN Portfolio Database. STUDY SELECTION The study comprised three distinct elements. (1) A survey of 188 women with SUI to identify outcomes of importance to them (activities of daily living; sex, hygiene and lifestyle issues; emotional health; and the availability of services). (2) A systematic review and meta-analysis of non-surgical treatments for SUI to find out which are most effective by comparing results of trials (direct pairwise comparisons) and by modelling results (mixed-treatment comparisons - MTCs). A total of 88 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs reporting data from 9721 women were identified, considering five generic interventions [pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT), electrical stimulation (ES), vaginal cones (VCs), bladder training (BT) and serotonin-noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor (SNRI) medications], in many variations and combinations. Data were available for 37 interventions and 68 treatment comparisons by direct pairwise assessment. Mixed-treatment comparison models compared 14 interventions, using data from 55 trials (6608 women). (3) Economic modelling, using a Markov model, to find out which combinations of treatments (treatment pathways) are most cost-effective for SUI. DATA EXTRACTION Titles and abstracts identified were assessed by one reviewer and full-text copies of all potentially relevant reports independently assessed by two reviewers. Any disagreements were resolved by consensus or arbitration by a third person. RESULTS Direct pairwise comparison and MTC analysis showed that the treatments were more effective than no treatment. Delivering PFMT in a more intense fashion, either through extra sessions or with biofeedback (BF), appeared to be the most effective treatment [PFMT extra sessions vs no treatment (NT) odds ratio (OR) 10.7, 95% credible interval (CrI) 5.03 to 26.2; PFMT + BF vs NT OR 12.3, 95% CrI 5.35 to 32.7]. Only when success was measured in terms of improvement was there evidence that basic PFMT was better than no treatment (PFMT basic vs NT OR 4.47, 95% CrI 2.03 to 11.9). Analysis of cost-effectiveness showed that for cure rates, the strategy using lifestyle changes and PFMT with extra sessions followed by tension-free vaginal tape (TVT) (lifestyle advice-PFMT extra sessions-TVT) had a probability of greater than 70% of being considered cost-effective for all threshold values for willingness to pay for a QALY up to 50,000 pounds. For improvement rates, lifestyle advice-PFMT extra sessions-TVT had a probability of greater than 50% of being considered cost-effective when societys willingness to pay for an additional QALY was more than 10,000 pounds. The results were most sensitive to changes in the long-term performance of PFMT and also in the relative effectiveness of basic PFMT and PFMT with extra sessions. LIMITATIONS Although a large number of studies were identified, few data were available for most comparisons and long-term data were sparse. Challenges for evidence synthesis were the lack of consensus on the most appropriate method for assessing incontinence and intervention protocols that were complex and varied considerably across studies. CONCLUSIONS More intensive forms of PFMT appear worthwhile, but further research is required to define an optimal form of more intensive therapy that is feasible and efficient for the NHS to provide, along with further definitive evidence from large, well-designed studies.

Quality of life before and after intensive care

Quality of life is often thought to be poor before and after intensive care unit admission. The aim of this study was to investigate changes in quality of life before and after intensive care. A prospective cohort study of 300 consecutive patients admitted to intensive care was performed in a Scottish Teaching Hospital. Quality of life was assessed premorbidly and 3, 6 and 12 months after intensive care admission for surviving patients using SF‐36 as well as EQ‐5D scores at 12 months. The median value for age was 60.5 years and for APACHE II score, 18. The mean length of stay was 6.7 days. SF‐36 physical component scores decreased from premorbid values at 3 months (p = 0.05) and then returned to premorbid values at 12 months (p < 0.001). The mean physical scores were below the population norm at all time points but the mean mental scores were similar or higher than these population norms. Patients who died after intensive care discharge had lower quality of life scores than did survivors (all p < 0.01). Poor premorbid quality of life was demonstrated and appears to reduce after ICU discharge. For survivors there was a slow increase in physical quality of life to premorbid levels by the end of the first year but these remained lower than in the general population. ICU patients experience a considerable longer‐term burden of ill health.

Medical expulsive therapy in adults with ureteric colic: a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND Meta-analyses of previous randomised controlled trials concluded that the smooth muscle relaxant drugs tamsulosin and nifedipine assisted stone passage for people managed expectantly for ureteric colic, but emphasised the need for high-quality trials with wide inclusion criteria. We aimed to fulfil this need by testing effectiveness of these drugs in a standard clinical care setting. METHODS For this multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited adults (aged 18-65 years) undergoing expectant management for a single ureteric stone identified by CT at 24 UK hospitals. Participants were randomly assigned by a remote randomisation system to tamsulosin 400 μg, nifedipine 30 mg, or placebo taken daily for up to 4 weeks, using an algorithm with centre, stone size (≤5 mm or >5 mm), and stone location (upper, mid, or lower ureter) as minimisation covariates. Participants, clinicians, and trial personnel were masked to treatment assignment. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants who did not need further intervention for stone clearance within 4 weeks of randomisation, analysed in a modified intention-to-treat population defined as all eligible patients for whom we had primary outcome data. This trial is registered with the European Clinical Trials Database, EudraCT number 2010-019469-26, and as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number 69423238. FINDINGS Between Jan 11, 2011, and Dec 20, 2013, we randomly assigned 1167 participants, 1136 (97%) of whom were included in the primary analysis (17 were excluded because of ineligibility and 14 participants were lost to follow-up). 303 (80%) of 379 participants in the placebo group did not need further intervention by 4 weeks, compared with 307 (81%) of 378 in the tamsulosin group (adjusted risk difference 1·3% [95% CI -5·7 to 8·3]; p=0·73) and 304 (80%) of 379 in the nifedipine group (0·5% [-5·6 to 6·5]; p=0·88). No difference was noted between active treatment and placebo (p=0·78), or between tamsulosin and nifedipine (p=0·77). Serious adverse events were reported in three participants in the nifedipine group (one had right loin pain, diarrhoea, and vomiting; one had malaise, headache, and chest pain; and one had severe chest pain, difficulty breathing, and left arm pain) and in one participant in the placebo group (headache, dizziness, lightheadedness, and chronic abdominal pain). INTERPRETATION Tamsulosin 400 μg and nifedipine 30 mg are not effective at decreasing the need for further treatment to achieve stone clearance in 4 weeks for patients with expectantly managed ureteric colic. FUNDING UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Systematic review of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of photodynamic diagnosis and urine biomarkers (FISH, ImmunoCyt, NMP22) and cytology for the detection and follow-up of bladder cancer.

OBJECTIVE To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of photodynamic diagnosis (PDD) compared with white light cystoscopy (WLC), and urine biomarkers [fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH), ImmunoCyt, NMP22] and cytology for the detection and follow-up of bladder cancer. DATA SOURCES Major electronic databases including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, EMBASE, BIOSIS, Science Citation Index, Health Management Information Consortium and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched until April 2008. REVIEW METHODS A systematic review of the literature was carried out according to standard methods. An economic model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative diagnostic and follow-up strategies for the diagnosis and management of patients with bladder cancer. RESULTS In total, 27 studies reported PDD test performance. In pooled estimates [95% confidence interval (CI)] for patient-level analysis, PDD had higher sensitivity than WLC [92% (80% to 100%) versus 71% (49% to 93%)] but lower specificity [57% (36% to 79%) versus 72% (47% to 96%)]. Similar results were found for biopsy-level analysis. The median sensitivities (range) of PDD and WLC for detecting lower risk, less aggressive tumours were similar for patient-level detection [92% (20% to 95%) versus 95% (8% to 100%)], but sensitivity was higher for PDD than for WLC for biopsy-level detection [96% (88% to 100%) versus 88% (74% to 100%)]. For more aggressive, higher-risk tumours the median sensitivity of PDD for both patient-level [89% (6% to 100%)] and biopsy-level [99% (54% to 100%)] detection was higher than those of WLC [56% (0% to 100%) and 67% (0% to 100%) respectively]. Four RCTs comparing PDD with WLC reported effectiveness outcomes. PDD use at transurethral resection of bladder tumour resulted in fewer residual tumours at check cystoscopy [relative risk, RR, 0.37 (95% CI 0.20 to 0.69)] and longer recurrence-free survival [RR 1.37 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.59)] compared with WLC. In 71 studies reporting the performance of biomarkers and cytology in detecting bladder cancer, sensitivity (95% CI) was highest for ImmunoCyt [84% (77% to 91%)] and lowest for cytology [44% (38% to 51%)], whereas specificity was highest for cytology [96% (94% to 98%)] and lowest for ImmunoCyt [75% (68% to 83%)]. In the cost-effectiveness analysis the most effective strategy in terms of true positive cases (44) and life-years (11.66) [flexible cystoscopy (CSC) and ImmunoCyt followed by PDD in initial diagnosis and CSC followed by WLC in follow-up] had an incremental cost per life-year of over 270,000 pounds. The least effective strategy [cytology followed by WLC in initial diagnosis (average cost over 20 years 1403 pounds, average life expectancy 11.59)] was most likely to be considered cost-effective when societys willingness to pay was less than 20,000 pounds per life-year. No strategy was cost-effective more than 50% of the time, but four of the eight strategies in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis (three involving a biomarker or PDD) were each associated with a 20% chance of being considered cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses the results were most sensitive to the pretest probability of disease (5% in the base case). CONCLUSIONS The advantages of PDDs higher sensitivity in detecting bladder cancer have to be weighed against the disadvantages of a higher false-positive rate. Taking into account the assumptions made in the model, strategies involving biomarkers and/or PDD provide additional benefits at a cost that society might be willing to pay. Strategies replacing WLC with PDD provide more life-years but it is unclear whether they are worth the extra cost.

Antimicrobial catheters for reduction of symptomatic urinary tract infection in adults requiring short-term catheterisation in hospital: a multicentre randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) is a major preventable cause of harm for patients in hospital. We aimed to establish whether short-term routine use of antimicrobial catheters reduced risk of CAUTI compared with standard polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) catheterisation. METHODS In our parallel, three group, multicentre, randomised controlled superiority trial, we enrolled adults (aged ≥16 years) requiring short-term (≤14 days) catheterisation at 24 hospitals in the UK. Participants were randomly allocated 1:1:1 with a remote computer allocation to receive a silver alloy-coated catheter, a nitrofural-impregnated catheter, or a PTFE-coated catheter (control group). Patients undergoing unplanned catheterisation were also included and consent for participation was obtained retrospectively. Participants and trial staff were unmasked to treatment assignment. Data were collected by trial staff and by patient-reported questionnaires for 6 weeks after randomisation. The primary outcome was incidence of symptomatic urinary tract infection for which an antibiotic was prescribed by 6 weeks. We postulated that a 3·3% absolute reduction in CAUTI would represent sufficient benefit to recommend routine use of antimicrobial catheters. This study is registered, number ISRCTN75198618. FINDINGS 708 (10%) of 7102 randomly allocated participants were not catheterised, did not confirm consent, or withdrew, and were not included in the primary analyses. Compared with 271 (12·6%) of 2144 participants in the control group, 263 (12·5%) of 2097 participants allocated a silver alloy catheter had the primary outcome (difference -0·1% [95% CI -2·4 to 2·2]), as did 228 (10·6%) of 2153 participants allocated a nitrofural catheter (-2·1% [-4·2 to 0·1]). Rates of catheter-related discomfort were higher in the nitrofural group than they were in the other groups. INTERPRETATION Silver alloy-coated catheters were not effective for reduction of incidence of symptomatic CAUTI. The reduction we noted in CAUTI associated with nitrofural-impregnated catheters was less than that regarded as clinically important. Routine use of antimicrobial-impregnated catheters is not supported by this trial. FUNDING UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Effect of multivitamin and multimineral supplements on morbidity from infections in older people (MAVIS trial): pragmatic, randomised, double blind, placebo controlled trial

Abstract Objective To examine whether supplementation with multivitamins and multiminerals influences self reported days of infection, use of health services, and quality of life in people aged 65 or over. Design Randomised, placebo controlled trial, with blinding of participants, outcome assessors, and investigators. Setting Communities associated with six general practices in Grampian, Scotland. Participants 910 men and women aged 65 or over who did not take vitamins or minerals. Interventions Daily multivitamin and multimineral supplementation or placebo for one year. Main outcome measures Primary outcomes were contacts with primary care for infections, self reported days of infection, and quality of life. Secondary outcomes included antibiotic prescriptions, hospital admissions, adverse events, and compliance. Results Supplementation did not significantly affect contacts with primary care and days of infection per person (incidence rate ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.19 and 1.07, 0.90 to 1.27). Quality of life was not affected by supplementation. No statistically significant findings were found for secondary outcomes or subgroups. Conclusion Routine multivitamin and multimineral supplementation of older people living at home does not affect self reported infection related morbidity. Trial registration ISRCTN: 66376460.

Effect of multivitamin and multimineral supplementation on cognitive function in men and women aged 65 years and over: A randomised controlled trial

BackgroundObservational studies have frequently reported an association between cognitive function and nutrition in later life but randomised trials of B vitamins and antioxidant supplements have mostly found no beneficial effect. We examined the effect of daily supplementation with 11 vitamins and 5 minerals on cognitive function in older adults to assess the possibility that this could help to prevent cognitive decline.MethodsThe study was carried out as part of a randomised double blind placebo controlled trial of micronutrient supplementation based in six primary care health centres in North East Scotland. 910 men and women aged 65 years and over living in the community were recruited and randomised: 456 to active treatment and 454 to placebo. The active treatment consisted of a single tablet containing eleven vitamins and five minerals in amounts ranging from 50–210 % of the UK Reference Nutrient Intake or matching placebo tablet taken daily for 12 months. Digit span forward and verbal fluency tests, which assess immediate memory and executive functioning respectively, were conducted at the start and end of the intervention period. Risk of micronutrient deficiency at baseline was assessed by a simple risk questionnaire.ResultsFor digit span forward there was no evidence of an effect of supplements in all participants or in sub-groups defined by age or risk of deficiency. For verbal fluency there was no evidence of a beneficial effect in the whole study population but there was weak evidence for a beneficial effect of supplementation in the two pre-specified subgroups: in those aged 75 years and over (n 290; mean difference between supplemented and placebo groups 2.8 (95% CI -0.6, 6.2) units) and in those at increased risk of micronutrient deficiency assessed by the risk questionnaire (n 260; mean difference between supplemented and placebo groups 2.5 (95% CI -1.0, 6.1) units).ConclusionThe results provide no evidence for a beneficial effect of daily multivitamin and multimineral supplements on these domains of cognitive function in community-living people over 65 years. However, the possibility of beneficial effects in older people and those at greater risk of nutritional deficiency deserves further attention.

Developing a preference-based Glaucoma Utility Index using a discrete choice experiment.

Purpose. To estimate a utility-based glaucoma health outcome measure, known as the Glaucoma Utility Index. Methods. Based on focus group studies, involving people with glaucoma, existing profile measures relevant to glaucoma were modified and a six-dimensional profile instrument was developed. Dimensions were: central and near vision; lighting and glare; mobility; activities of daily living; eye discomfort and other effects. Each dimension was assigned four levels (no difficulty; some difficulty; quite a lot of difficulty; and severe difficulty). The discrete choice experiment (DCE) approach was employed to move from this profile instrument to a preference-based utility measure. Experimental design techniques were used to derive a sample of health states for which preferences were elicited using the DCE. Four hundred and seventy-three people with glaucoma received the choice questionnaire. Results. The regression analysis was based on 286 consistent responses to the DCE. The regression coefficients for three of the dimensions (“central and near vision,” “mobility,” and “activities of daily living”) moved as expected. Moving from “no difficulty” to “severe difficulty” for central and near vision resulted in the most loss of utility, followed by activities of daily living and mobility. Systemic (“other effects”) and local side effects were considered the least important. Utility weights were related to self-reported glaucoma state. Utility estimates moved in line with generic measures of health outcome. Conclusions. This study developed a preference-based utility measure (Glaucoma Utility Index) using the DCE approach. The index, estimated on the basis of 286 respondents, demonstrated both theoretical and convergent validity with other generic health outcome measures and measures of glaucoma severity. Further research investigating preferences by clinically defined glaucoma health status is indicated. Methodological research should focus on alternative methods of scaling for use within a generic Quality Adjusted Life Year framework.

Types of urethral catheter for reducing symptomatic urinary tract infections in hospitalised adults requiring short-term catheterisation: multicentre randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation of antimicrobial- and antiseptic-impregnated urethral catheters (the CATHETER trial)

BACKGROUND Catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) is a major preventable cause of harm for patients in hospital and incurs significant costs for health-care providers such as the UK NHS. Many preventative strategies and measures have been introduced to minimise CAUTI risk, including the use of antimicrobial catheters. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding their usefulness in terms of reducing symptomatic CAUTI, and whether or not they are cost-effective. OBJECTIVES Do antimicrobial catheters reduce the rate of symptomatic urinary tract infection (UTI) during short-term hospital use and is their use cost-effective for the UK NHS? DESIGN A pragmatic multicentre UK randomised controlled trial comparing three catheters as they would be used in the UK NHS: antimicrobial-impregnated (nitrofurazone) and antiseptic-coated (silver alloy) catheters with the standard polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE)-coated catheters. Economic evaluation used a decision model populated with data from the trial. Sensitivity analysis was used to explore uncertainty. SETTING Relevant clinical departments in 24 NHS hospitals throughout the UK. PARTICIPANTS Adults requiring temporary urethral catheterisation for a period of between 1 and 14 days as part of their care, predominantly as a result of elective surgery. INTERVENTIONS Eligible participants were randomised 1 : 1 : 1 to one of three types of urethral catheter in order to make the following pragmatic comparisons: nitrofurazone-impregnated silicone catheter compared with standard PTFE-coated latex catheter; and silver alloy-coated hydrogel latex catheter compared with standard PTFE-coated latex catheter. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome for clinical effectiveness was the incidence of UTI at any time up to 6 weeks post randomisation. This was defined as any symptom reported during catheterisation, up to 3 days or 1 or 2 weeks post catheter removal or 6 weeks post randomisation combined with a prescription of antibiotics, at any of these times, for presumed symptomatic UTI. The primary economic outcome was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Health-care costs were estimated from NHS sources with QALYs calculated from participant completion of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D). RESULTS Outcome analyses encompassed 6394 (90%) of 7102 participants randomised. The rate of symptomatic UTI within 6 weeks of randomisation was 10.6% in the nitrofurazone group (n = 2153; -2.1% absolute risk difference), 12.5% in the silver alloy group (n = 2097; -0.1% absolute risk difference) and 12.6% in the PTFE group (n = 2144). The effect size {odds ratio (OR) [97.5% confidence interval (CI)]} was 0.82 (97.5% CI 0.66 to 1.01) for nitrofurazone (p = 0.037) and 0.99 (97.5% CI 0.81 to 1.22) for silver alloy (p = 0.92) catheters. The nitrofurazone catheters were more likely to cause discomfort during use and on removal. The primary economic analysis suggested that nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters would be, on average, the least costly (> £7 less than PTFE) and most effective option at current NHS prices. There was a 73% chance that nitrofurazone would be cost saving and an 84% chance that the incremental cost per QALY would be < £30,000. At the trial price (£6.46), silver alloy catheters were very unlikely to be cost-effective. These results were unchanged in sensitivity analyses, although when the length of stay cost was excluded the incremental cost per QALY for nitrofurazone against PTFE was £28,602. CONCLUSIONS The trial estimate of clinical effectiveness for nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters was less than the pre-specified minimum absolute risk difference that we considered important (-3.3%), and the surrounding CI included zero, indicating that any reduction in catheter-associated UTI was uncertain. Economic analysis, although associated with uncertainty, suggested that nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters may be cost-effective for the NHS. The trial ruled out the possibility that silver alloy-coated catheters might reach the pre-set degree of clinical effectiveness and that their use was unlikely to be cost-effective. These findings should be considered by patients, clinicians and health-care policy-makers to determine whether or not a change in practice is worthwhile. Future research should be aimed at determining the minimum clinically important difference in terms of CAUTI prevention in comparative trials, and to identify reliable methods which can detect the impact of the intervention on quality of life and other drivers of cost, when the intervention is a subsidiary part of overall treatment plans.

Types of urethral catheter for reducing symptomatic urinary tract infections in hospitalised adults requiring short-term catheterisation

BACKGROUND Catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) is a major preventable cause of harm for patients in hospital and incurs significant costs for health-care providers such as the UK NHS. Many preventative strategies and measures have been introduced to minimise CAUTI risk, including the use of antimicrobial catheters. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding their usefulness in terms of reducing symptomatic CAUTI, and whether or not they are cost-effective. OBJECTIVES Do antimicrobial catheters reduce the rate of symptomatic urinary tract infection (UTI) during short-term hospital use and is their use cost-effective for the UK NHS? DESIGN A pragmatic multicentre UK randomised controlled trial comparing three catheters as they would be used in the UK NHS: antimicrobial-impregnated (nitrofurazone) and antiseptic-coated (silver alloy) catheters with the standard polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE)-coated catheters. Economic evaluation used a decision model populated with data from the trial. Sensitivity analysis was used to explore uncertainty. SETTING Relevant clinical departments in 24 NHS hospitals throughout the UK. PARTICIPANTS Adults requiring temporary urethral catheterisation for a period of between 1 and 14 days as part of their care, predominantly as a result of elective surgery. INTERVENTIONS Eligible participants were randomised 1 : 1 : 1 to one of three types of urethral catheter in order to make the following pragmatic comparisons: nitrofurazone-impregnated silicone catheter compared with standard PTFE-coated latex catheter; and silver alloy-coated hydrogel latex catheter compared with standard PTFE-coated latex catheter. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome for clinical effectiveness was the incidence of UTI at any time up to 6 weeks post randomisation. This was defined as any symptom reported during catheterisation, up to 3 days or 1 or 2 weeks post catheter removal or 6 weeks post randomisation combined with a prescription of antibiotics, at any of these times, for presumed symptomatic UTI. The primary economic outcome was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Health-care costs were estimated from NHS sources with QALYs calculated from participant completion of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D). RESULTS Outcome analyses encompassed 6394 (90%) of 7102 participants randomised. The rate of symptomatic UTI within 6 weeks of randomisation was 10.6% in the nitrofurazone group (n = 2153; -2.1% absolute risk difference), 12.5% in the silver alloy group (n = 2097; -0.1% absolute risk difference) and 12.6% in the PTFE group (n = 2144). The effect size {odds ratio (OR) [97.5% confidence interval (CI)]} was 0.82 (97.5% CI 0.66 to 1.01) for nitrofurazone (p = 0.037) and 0.99 (97.5% CI 0.81 to 1.22) for silver alloy (p = 0.92) catheters. The nitrofurazone catheters were more likely to cause discomfort during use and on removal. The primary economic analysis suggested that nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters would be, on average, the least costly (> £7 less than PTFE) and most effective option at current NHS prices. There was a 73% chance that nitrofurazone would be cost saving and an 84% chance that the incremental cost per QALY would be < £30,000. At the trial price (£6.46), silver alloy catheters were very unlikely to be cost-effective. These results were unchanged in sensitivity analyses, although when the length of stay cost was excluded the incremental cost per QALY for nitrofurazone against PTFE was £28,602. CONCLUSIONS The trial estimate of clinical effectiveness for nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters was less than the pre-specified minimum absolute risk difference that we considered important (-3.3%), and the surrounding CI included zero, indicating that any reduction in catheter-associated UTI was uncertain. Economic analysis, although associated with uncertainty, suggested that nitrofurazone-impregnated catheters may be cost-effective for the NHS. The trial ruled out the possibility that silver alloy-coated catheters might reach the pre-set degree of clinical effectiveness and that their use was unlikely to be cost-effective. These findings should be considered by patients, clinicians and health-care policy-makers to determine whether or not a change in practice is worthwhile. Future research should be aimed at determining the minimum clinically important difference in terms of CAUTI prevention in comparative trials, and to identify reliable methods which can detect the impact of the intervention on quality of life and other drivers of cost, when the intervention is a subsidiary part of overall treatment plans.