Mary S. Wisz

Quaternary coral reef refugia preserved fish diversity

Ancient reefs provided fishy refuges Climate fluctuations have occurred repeatedly in Earths history, and so there is much to be learned from examining the responses of past systems. Pellessier et al. reconstructed paleoenvironments over the past 3 million years from sediment cores collected across coral reef systems to explore the impacts of past conditions on reef fish diversity. Coral reefs survived in the Indo-Australian regions during times of otherwise extensive habitat loss. These robust reefs can explain much of the diversity found in present-day reef fish species. Science, this issue p. 1016 Ancient reefs protected fish from past climate changes, contributing to highly diverse fish in Indo-Australian reefs today. The most prominent pattern in global marine biogeography is the biodiversity peak in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Yet the processes that underpin this pattern are still actively debated. By reconstructing global marine paleoenvironments over the past 3 million years on the basis of sediment cores, we assessed the extent to which Quaternary climate fluctuations can explain global variation in current reef fish richness. Comparing global historical coral reef habitat availability with the present-day distribution of 6316 reef fish species, we find that distance from stable coral reef habitats during historical periods of habitat loss explains 62% of the variation in fish richness, outweighing present-day environmental factors. Our results highlight the importance of habitat persistence during periods of climate change for preserving marine biodiversity.

Spatiotemporal SNP analysis reveals pronounced biocomplexity at the northern range margin of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

Accurate prediction of species distribution shifts in the face of climate change requires a sound understanding of population diversity and local adaptations. Previous modeling has suggested that global warming will lead to increased abundance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the ocean around Greenland, but the dynamics of earlier abundance fluctuations are not well understood. We applied a retrospective spatiotemporal population genomics approach to examine the temporal stability of cod population structure in this region and to search for signatures of divergent selection over a 78‐year period spanning major demographic changes. Analyzing >900 gene‐associated single nucleotide polymorphisms in 847 individuals, we identified four genetically distinct groups that exhibited varying spatial distributions with considerable overlap and mixture. The genetic composition had remained stable over decades at some spawning grounds, whereas complete population replacement was evident at others. Observations of elevated differentiation in certain genomic regions are consistent with adaptive divergence between the groups, indicating that they may respond differently to environmental variation. Significantly increased temporal changes at a subset of loci also suggest that adaptation may be ongoing. These findings illustrate the power of spatiotemporal population genomics for revealing biocomplexity in both space and time and for informing future fisheries management and conservation efforts.

Incorporating dominant species as proxies for biotic interactions strengthens plant community models

Summary 1. Biotic interactions exert considerable influence on the distribution of individual species and should, thus, strongly impact communities. Implementing biotic interactions in spatial models of community assembly is therefore essential for accurately modelling assemblage properties. However, this remains a challenge due to the difficulty of detecting the role of species interactions and because accurate paired community and environment data sets are required to disentangle biotic influences from abiotic effects. 2. Here, we incorporate data from three dominant species into community-level models as a proxy for the frequency and intensity of their interactions with other species and predict emergent assemblage properties for the co-occurring subdominant species. By analysing plant community and fieldquantified environmental data from specially designed and spatially replicated monitoring grids, we provide a robust in vivo test of community models. 3. Considering this well-defined and easily quantified surrogate for biotic interactions consistently improved realism in all aspects of community models (community composition, species richness and functional structure), irrespective of modelling methodology. 4. Dominant species reduced community richness locally and favoured species with similar leaf dry matter content. This effect was most pronounced under conditions of high plant biomass and cover, where stronger competitive impacts are expected. Analysis of leaf dry matter content suggests that this effect may occur through efficient resource sequestration. 5. Synthesis. We demonstrate the strong role of dominant species in shaping multiple plant community attributes, and thus the need to explicitly include interspecific interactions to achieve robust predictions of assemblage properties. Incorporating information on biotic interactions strengthens our capacity not only to predict the richness and composition of communities, but also how their structure and function will be modified in the face of global change.

Combining food web and species distribution models for improved community projections.

The ability to model biodiversity patterns is of prime importance in this era of severe environmental crisis. Species assemblage along environmental gradients is subject to the interplay of biotic interactions in complement to abiotic filtering and stochastic forces. Accounting for complex biotic interactions for a wide array of species remains so far challenging. Here, we propose using food web models that can infer the potential interaction links between species as a constraint in species distribution models. Using a plant–herbivore (butterfly) interaction dataset, we demonstrate that this combined approach is able to improve species distribution and community forecasts. The trophic interaction network between butterfly larvae and host plant was phylogenetically structured and driven by host plant nitrogen content allowing forecasting the food web model to unknown interactions links. This combined approach is very useful in rendering models of more generalist species that have multiple potential interaction links, where gap in the literature may occur. Our combined approach points toward a promising direction for modeling the spatial variation in entire species interaction networks.

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change.

Spectral measures and mixed models as valuable tools for investigating controls on land surface phenology in high arctic Greenland

BackgroundChanges in land surface phenology are of major importance to the understanding of the impact of recent and future climate changes in the Arctic. This paper presents an extensive study from Zackenberg Ecological Research Operations (ZERO) where snow melt, climate and growing season characteristics of six major high arctic vegetation types has been monitored during 1999 to 2005. We investigate the growth dynamics for dry, mesic and wet types using hand held measurements of far red normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI-FR) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM).ResultsSnow melt and temperature are of major importance for the timing of the maximum growth as well as for the seasonal growth. More than 85% of the variance in timing of the maximum growth is explained by the models and similar for the seasonal growth of mesic and wet vegetation types. We find several non-linear growth responses to the environmental variables.ConclusionWe conclude that the uses of GAMMs are valuable for investigating growth dynamics in the Arctic. Contrary to several other studies in the Arctic we found a significant decreasing trend of the seasonally integrated NDVI-FR (SINDVI) in some vegetation types. This indicates that although greening might occur wide-spread in the Arctic there are variations on the local scale that might influence the regional trends on the longer term.

Archived DNA reveals fisheries and climate induced collapse of a major fishery.

Fishing and climate change impact the demography of marine fishes, but it is generally ignored that many species are made up of genetically distinct locally adapted populations that may show idiosyncratic responses to environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Here, we track 80 years of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population dynamics in West Greenland using DNA from archived otoliths in combination with fish population and niche based modeling. We document how the interacting effects of climate change and high fishing pressure lead to dramatic spatiotemporal changes in the proportions and abundance of different genetic populations, and eventually drove the cod fishery to a collapse in the early 1970s. Our results highlight the relevance of fisheries management at the level of genetic populations under future scenarios of climate change.

Herbicide and fertilizers promote analogous phylogenetic responses but opposite functional responses in plant communities

Throughout the world, herbicides and fertilizers change species composition in agricultural communities, but how do the cumulative effects of these chemicals impact the functional and phylogenetic structure of non-targeted communities when they drift into adjacent semi-natural habitats? Based on long-term experiment we show that fertilizer and herbicides (glyphosate) have contrasting effects on functional structure, but can increase phylogenetic diversity in semi-natural plant communities. We found that an increase in nitrogen promoted an increase in the average specific leaf area and canopy height at the community level, but an increase in glyphosate promoted a decrease in those traits. Phylogenetic diversity of plant communities increased when herbicide and fertilizer were applied together, likely because functional traits facilitating plant success in those conditions were not phylogenetically conserved. Species richness also decreased with increasing levels of nitrogen and glyphosate. Our results suggest that predicting the cumulative effects of agrochemicals is more complex than anticipated due to their distinct selection of traits that may or may not be conserved phylogenetically. Precautionary efforts to mitigate drift of agricultural chemicals into semi-natural habitats are warranted to prevent unforeseeable biodiversity shifts.

Ware et al ClimateSurfaces

The zip file contains six netCDF files. These are global ocean climatologies for three time points (2011, 2050, and 2100) for the variables sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS).

The determinants of alpine butterfly richness and composition vary according to the ecological traits of species

Predicting spatial patterns of species diversity and composition using suitable environmental predictors is an essential element in conservation planning. Although species have distinct relationships to environmental conditions, some similarities may exist among species that share functional characteristics or traits. We investigated the relationship between species richness, composition and abiotic and biotic environment in different groups of butterflies that share ecological characteristics. We inventoried butterfly species richness in 192 sites and classified all inventoried species in three traits categories: the caterpillars diet breadth, the habitat requirements and the dispersal ability of the adults. We studied how environment, including influence butterfly species richness and composition within each trait category. Across four modelling approaches, the relative influence of environmental variables on butterfly species richness differed for specialists and generalists. Climatic variables were the main determinants of butterfly species richness and composition for generalists, whereas habitat diversity, and plant richness were also important for specialists. Prediction accuracy was lower for specialists than for generalists. Although climate variables represent the strongest drivers affecting butterfly species richness and composition for generalists, plant richness and habitat diversity are at least as important for specialist butterfly species. As specialist butterflies are among those species particularly threatened by global changes, devising accurate predictors to model specialist species richness is extremely important. However, our results indicate that this task will be challenging because more complex predictors are required.