Masafumi Kamachi

Global statistical space‐time scales of oceanic variability estimated from the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data

Four years of the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data are used to produce estimates of statistical space-time scales of ocean variabilities for the sea surface height. A three-dimensional (space-time) correlation function with an anisotropic directional dependence is assumed. The function has Gaussian distributions in radial directions in the space-time coordinates and ellipsoidal contour surfaces. The function can reveal the space-time scales and propagations of the variabilities and statistical errors in the altimeter data. We evaluated the space-time scales using the best fit correlation function to the altimeter data. The scales show geographical differences. This means that dominant variabilities depend on regions. We show an optimum interpolation (OI) method as an example of the application of the fitted correlation function. The OI is applied to the altimeter data in the space-time domain to make grid point data with higher accuracy than those obtained from a usual spatial (two-dimensional) OI (2-D OI). The values of the correlation function are used for the correlation coefficients of the first guess error in the OI. A propagation diagram obtained from the space-time OI (3-D OI) shows clear propagations of planetary disturbances with larger amplitude. The grid point values from the 3-D OI show better correspondences with sea levels from tide gauges than those from the 2-D OI. The advantage is due to the data of the different cycles being additionally adopted and the correlation function reflecting propagation of the ocean variabilities.

A Reconstruction of Observed Profiles in the Sea East of Japan Using Vertical Coupled Temperature-Salinity EOF Modes

It is important to estimate hard-to-observe parameters in the ocean interior from easy-to-observe parameters. This study therefore demostrates a reconstruction of observed temperature and salinity profiles of the sea east of Japan (30°≈40°N, 140°≈150°E). The reconstruction was done by estimating suboptimal state from several values of the observed profiles and/or sea surface dynamic height (SDH) calculated from the profiles. The estimation used a variational method with vertical coupled temperature-salinity empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes. Profiles of temperature and salinity in the subtropical region are effectively reconstructed from in situ temperature profile data, or sea surface temperature (SST) and SDH. For example, the analyzed temperature field from SST and SDH has an accuracy to within 1°C in the subtropical region. Salinity in the sea north of Kuroshio, however, is difficult to estimate because of its complex variability which is less correlated with temperature than in the subtropical region. Sea surface salinity is useful to estimate the subsurface structure. We also show the possibility that the estimation is improved by considering nonlinearity in the equation calculating SDH from temperature and salinity analysis values in order to examine the misfit between analysis and observation. Analysis using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry data instead of SDH was also performed.

Short-Range Prediction Experiments with Operational Data Assimilation System for the Kuroshio South of Japan

The short-range (one month) variability of the Kuroshio path was predicted in 84 experiments (90-day predictions) using a model in an operational data assimilation system based on data from 1993 to 1999. The predictions started from an initial condition or members of a set of initial conditions, obtained in a reanalysis experiment. The predictions represent the transition from straight to meander of the Kuroshio path, and the results have been analyzed according to previously proposed mechanisms of the transition with eddy propagation and interaction acting as a trigger of the meander and self-sustained oscillation. The reanalysis shows that the meander evolves due to eddy activity. Simulation (no assimilation) shows no meander state, even with the same atmospheric forcing as the prediction. It is suggested therefore that the initial condition contains information on the meander and the system can represent the evolution. Mean (standard deviation) values of the axis error for all 84 cases are 13, 17, and 20 (10, 10, and 12) km, in 138.5°E, in the 30-, 60-, and 90-day predictions respectively. The observed mean deviation from seasonal variation is 30 km. The predictive limit of the system is thus about 80 days. The time scale of the limit depends on which stage in the transition is adopted as the initial condition. The gradual decrease of the amplitude in a stage from meander to straight paths is also predicted. The predictive limit is about 20 days, which is shorter than the prediction of the opposite transition.

Coupled Climate Simulation by Constraining Ocean Fields in a Coupled Model with Ocean Data

Abstract The authors developed a system for simulating climate variation by constraining the ocean component of a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) through ocean data assimilation and conducted a climate simulation [Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation System–Coupled Version Reanalysis (MOVE-C RA)]. The monthly variation of sea surface temperature (SST) is reasonably recovered in MOVE-C RA. Furthermore, MOVE-C RA has improved precipitation fields over the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) run (a simulation of the atmosphere model forced by observed daily SST) and the CGCM free simulation run. In particular, precipitation in the Philippine Sea in summer is improved over the AMIP run. This improvement is assumed to stem from the reproduction of the interaction between SST and precipitation, indicated by the lag of the precipitation change behind SST. Enhanced (suppressed) convection tends to induce an SST drop (rise) because of cloud cover and ocean mixing in the ...

Numerical simulation on the long-term variation of radioactive cesium concentration in the North Pacific due to the Fukushima disaster

Numerical simulations on oceanic (134)Cs and (137)Cs dispersions were intensively conducted in order to assess an effect of the radioactive cesium on the North Pacific environment with a focus on the long-term variation of the radioactive cesium concentration after the Fukushima disaster that occurred in March 2011. The amounts of (134)Cs and (137)Cs released into the ocean were estimated using oceanic monitoring data, whereas the atmospheric deposition was calculated through atmospheric dispersion simulations. The highly accurate ocean current reanalyzed through a three-dimensional variational data assimilation enabled us to clarify the time series of the (134)Cs and (137)Cs concentrations in the North Pacific. It was suggested that the main radioactive cesium cloud due to the direct oceanic release reached the central part of the North Pacific, crossing 170°W one year after the Fukushima disaster. The radioactive cesium was efficiently diluted by meso-scale eddies in the Kuroshio Extension region and its concentration in the surface, intermediate, and deep layers had already been reduced to the pre-Fukushima background value in the wide area within the North Pacific 2.5 years after the Fukushima disaster.

Mid‐depth freshening in the North Pacific subtropical gyre observed along the JMA repeat and WOCE hydrographic sections

[1] We report a freshening at mid-depth in the North Pacific subtropical gyre by using long-term repeat hydrographic data along the 137°E section and one-time hydrographic data along the World Ocean Circulation Experiment Hydrographic Program (WHP) P2 and P3 sections. North of 15°N along the 137°E section, we estimated a linear freshening trend of 0.0015/yr between the main thermocline and the salinity minimum layer of the North Pacific Intermediate Water, mainly caused by isopycnal surface deepening due to warming, and by westward shifts of the salinity-minimum tongue due to strengthening of the subtropical gyre. Furthermore, along the WHP-P2 section, the linear freshening trend could be classified into several groups according to longitude. Such spatial differences in the freshening trend seem to reflect differences in the formation processes and mid-depth pathways of the salinity minimum waters.

A nonlinear preconditioned quasi-Newton method without inversion of a first-guess covariance matrix in variational analyses

Aquasi-Newton method developed for adopting a non-diagonal first-guess covariance matrix in nonlinearvariational analyses (i.e. variational analyses adopting a non-quadratic cost function) is presented.As an example, we also show the effect of the nonlinear relationship between temperature and seasurfaceheight in three-dimensional variational ocean analyses.

Barrier Layer and Relevant Variability of the Salinity Field in the Equatorial Pacific Estimated in an Ocean Reanalysis Experiment

This paper investigates the feasibility of an ocean data assimilation system to analyze the salinity variability associated with the barrier layer in the equatorial Pacific. In order to validate reproducibility of the temperature and salinity fields, we perform an assimilation run where some temperature and salinity observations by TRITON buoys and Argo floats are withheld. The assimilation run reproduces interannual variability of salinity in the equatorial Pacific exhibited in the data that are withheld. Statistics shows that salinity values and variations in the assimilation run are closer to the data than the climatology and in the model free run. We also confirm that zonal currents in the equatorial Pacific in the reanalysis, where all available temperature and salinity data are assimilated, are consistent with an observation-based mapping and the data of the Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler mounted on TAO buoys. Variability of the barrier layer and relevant salinity field in the reanalysis is consistent with former studies. A thick barrier layer area generally exists west of the equatorial salinity front and is displaced zonally with the migration of the front in the response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, although the area moved to the east over the front in the 1997 El Niño. It is confirmed that the barrier layer thickness is closely correlated with the near-surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific.

Estimation of air‐sea heat flux from ocean measurements: An ill‐posed problem

In this paper we addressed that the estimation of ocean surface heat flux from ocean temperature data is an ill-posed inverse problem, just like a well-known ill-posed problem: differentiation of noisy data. We reviewed engineering literature on such problems. Using a Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 closure model and simulated temperature data, we conducted numerical experiments of retrieving heat fluxes using variational data assimilation. This study shows that estimated nonsolar heat fluxes with high time resolution have large errors even if the observation errors are small. We also discussed the ill-posedness based on sensitivity coefficients. However, by applying some regularization methods and a longer assimilation window, it is feasible to estimate heat fluxes with reasonable accuracies, at least at some lower temporal resolution. On the basis of our model and experiment configurations, the high nonlinearity of the ocean mixed layer model also can cause difficulty in optimization when the assimilation window is long (e.g., 7 days). We proposed a modified an adjoint method approach and yielded good results.

Identifying Pelagic Habitat Hotspots of Neon Flying Squid in the Temperate Waters of the Central North Pacific

We identified the pelagic habitat hotspots of the neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the central North Pacific from May to July and characterized the spatial patterns of squid aggregations in relation to oceanographic features such as mesoscale oceanic eddies and the Transition Zone Chlorophyll-a Front (TZCF). The data used for the habitat model construction and analyses were squid fishery information, remotely-sensed and numerical model-derived environmental data from May to July 1999–2010. Squid habitat hotspots were deduced from the monthly Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models and were identified as regions of persistent high suitable habitat across the 12-year period. The distribution of predicted squid habitat hotspots in central North Pacific revealed interesting spatial and temporal patterns likely linked with the presence and dynamics of oceanographic features in squid’s putative foraging grounds from late spring to summer. From May to June, the inferred patches of squid habitat hotspots developed within the Kuroshio-Oyashio transition zone (KOTZ; 37–40°N) and further expanded north towards the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ; 40–44°N) in July. The squid habitat hotspots within the KOTZ and areas west of the dateline (160°W-180°) were likely influenced and associated with the highly dynamic and transient oceanic eddies and could possibly account for lower squid suitable habitat persistence obtained from these regions. However, predicted squid habitat hotspots located in regions east of the dateline (180°-160°W) from June to July, showed predominantly higher squid habitat persistence presumably due to their proximity to the mean position of the seasonally-shifting TZCF and consequent utilization of the highly productive waters of the SAFZ.