Massimo Cirillo

Association of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in general population cohorts: a collaborative meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Substantial controversy surrounds the use of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria to define chronic kidney disease and assign its stages. We undertook a meta-analysis to assess the independent and combined associations of eGFR and albuminuria with mortality. METHODS In this collaborative meta-analysis of general population cohorts, we pooled standardised data for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality from studies containing at least 1000 participants and baseline information about eGFR and urine albumin concentrations. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality associated with eGFR and albuminuria, adjusted for potential confounders. FINDINGS The analysis included 105,872 participants (730,577 person-years) from 14 studies with urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) measurements and 1,128,310 participants (4,732,110 person-years) from seven studies with urine protein dipstick measurements. In studies with ACR measurements, risk of mortality was unrelated to eGFR between 75 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and 105 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and increased at lower eGFRs. Compared with eGFR 95 mL/min/1.73 m(2), adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.18 (95% CI 1.05-1.32) for eGFR 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), 1.57 (1.39-1.78) for 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2), and 3.14 (2.39-4.13) for 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2). ACR was associated with risk of mortality linearly on the log-log scale without threshold effects. Compared with ACR 0.6 mg/mmol, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.20 (1.15-1.26) for ACR 1.1 mg/mmol, 1.63 (1.50-1.77) for 3.4 mg/mmol, and 2.22 (1.97-2.51) for 33.9 mg/mmol. eGFR and ACR were multiplicatively associated with risk of mortality without evidence of interaction. Similar findings were recorded for cardiovascular mortality and in studies with dipstick measurements. INTERPRETATION eGFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and ACR 1.1 mg/mmol (10 mg/g) or more are independent predictors of mortality risk in the general population. This study provides quantitative data for use of both kidney measures for risk assessment and definition and staging of chronic kidney disease. FUNDING Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO), US National Kidney Foundation, and Dutch Kidney Foundation.Background A comprehensive evaluation of the independent and combined associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with mortality is required for assessment of the impact of kidney function on risk in the general population, with implications for improving the definition and staging of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality

IMPORTANCE The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. OBJECTIVE To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. RESULTS The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.

Associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with mortality and renal failure by sex : a meta-analysis

Objective To assess for the presence of a sex interaction in the associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and end stage renal disease. Design Random effects meta-analysis using pooled individual participant data. Setting 46 cohorts from Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australasia. Participants 2 051 158 participants (54% women) from general population cohorts (n=1 861 052), high risk cohorts (n=151 494), and chronic kidney disease cohorts (n=38 612). Eligible cohorts (except chronic kidney disease cohorts) had at least 1000 participants, outcomes of either mortality or end stage renal disease of ≥50 events, and baseline measurements of estimated glomerular filtration rate according to the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (mL/min/1.73 m2) and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (mg/g). Results Risks of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality were higher in men at all levels of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albumin-creatinine ratio. While higher risk was associated with lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher albumin-creatinine ratio in both sexes, the slope of the risk relationship for all-cause mortality and for cardiovascular mortality were steeper in women than in men. Compared with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 95, the adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality at estimated glomerular filtration rate 45 was 1.32 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.61) in women and 1.22 (1.00 to 1.48) in men (Pinteraction<0.01). Compared with a urinary albumin-creatinine ratio of 5, the adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality at urinary albumin-creatinine ratio 30 was 1.69 (1.54 to 1.84) in women and 1.43 (1.31 to 1.57) in men (Pinteraction<0.01). Conversely, there was no evidence of a sex difference in associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio with end stage renal disease risk. Conclusions Both sexes face increased risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and end stage renal disease with lower estimated glomerular filtration rates and higher albuminuria. These findings were robust across a large global consortium.

Associations of kidney disease measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease in individuals with and without hypertension

BACKGROUND Hypertension is the most prevalent comorbidity in individuals with chronic kidney disease. However, whether the association of the kidney disease measures, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria, with mortality or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) differs by hypertensive status is unknown. METHODS We did a meta-analysis of studies selected according to Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium criteria. Data transfer and analyses were done between March, 2011, and June, 2012. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and ESRD associated with eGFR and albuminuria in individuals with and without hypertension. FINDINGS We analysed data for 45 cohorts (25 general population, seven high-risk, and 13 chronic kidney disease) with 1,127,656 participants, 364,344 of whom had hypertension. Low eGFR and high albuminuria were associated with mortality irrespective of hypertensive status in the general population and high-risk cohorts. All-cause mortality risk was 1·1-1·2 times higher in individuals with hypertension than in those without hypertension at preserved eGFR. A steeper relative risk gradient in individuals without hypertension than in those with hypertension at eGFR range 45-75 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) led to much the same mortality risk at lower eGFR. With a reference eGFR of 95 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) in each group to explicitly assess interaction, adjusted HR for all-cause mortality at eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) was 1·77 (95% CI 1·57-1·99) in individuals without hypertension versus 1·24 (1·11-1·39) in those with hypertension (p for overall interaction=0·0003). Similarly, for albumin-creatinine ratio of 300 mg/g (vs 5 mg/g), HR was 2·30 (1·98-2·68) in individuals without hypertension versus 2·08 (1·84-2·35) in those with hypertension (p for overall interaction=0·019). We recorded much the same results for cardiovascular mortality. The associations of eGFR and albuminuria with ESRD, however, did not differ by hypertensive status. Results for chronic kidney disease cohorts were similar to those for general and high-risk population cohorts. INTERPRETATION Chronic kidney disease should be regarded as at least an equally relevant risk factor for mortality and ESRD in individuals without hypertension as it is in those with hypertension. FUNDING US National Kidney Foundation.

Long-Term Follow-Up of Celiac Adults on Gluten-Free Diet: Prevalence and Correlates of Intestinal Damage

Background and Aims: Celiac disease is the most common severe food intolerance in the Western world and is due to gluten ingestion in genetically susceptible children and adults. Intestinal biopsy is the golden standard for evaluation of mucosal damage associated with celiac disease. Gluten-free diet is the key treatment for celiac disease. Data on the long-term control of celiac disease are few and limited to small series of patients. The study reports data on the control of celiac disease and on its correlates in a large cohort of celiac adults during long-term treatment with gluten-free diet. Methods: The study cohort comprises 91 men and 299 women having undergone treatment with a gluten-free diet for at least 2 years and with complete records for visits at the time of diagnosis of celiac disease (baseline). Data collection included gender, age, education, weight, bowel habit, blood hemoglobin, plasma albumin and cholesterol, serum antiendomysium antibodies (EMA), dietary compliance to gluten-free diet (coded as good, low, or very low), and intestinal damage at biopsy (coded as absent, mild, or severe). Results: The duration of follow-up was 6.9 ± 7.5 years (mean ± SD, range 2–22 years). At follow-up visit, intestinal damage was absent in 170 patients (43.6%), mild in 127 (32.6%), and severe in 93 (23.8%). At follow-up, intestinal damage was significantly associated with dietary compliance, EMA, and plasma albumin (follow-up value and change value from baseline to follow-up). Baseline education significantly predicted dietary compliance and intestinal damage at follow-up. Conclusions: Celiac disease is often poorly controlled in the majority of patients on long-term treatment with a gluten-free diet as demonstrated by intestinal biopsy. Lack of adherence to strict gluten-free diet is the main reason of poorly controlled disease in adults. Laboratory and clinical information have a high positive predictive value and low negative predictive value for intestinal damage on long-term treatment. Dietary compliance as assessed by interview is the best marker of celiac disease control due to low cost, noninvasivity, and strong correlation with intestinal damage.

Hematocrit, Blood Pressure, and Hypertension The Gubbio Population Study

Baseline data from the Gubbio Population Study in north central Italy were used to investigate the relation of hematocrit to blood pressure and hypertension among 2,809 men and women aged 25-74 years. Independent of gender, age, and other confounders, the hypertensive group had a higher hematocrit than the nonhypertensive group (p less than 0.001). In comparison with the untreated hypertensive group, the hypertensive group being treated with diuretics or with other drugs only had similar mean hematocrit levels despite significantly lower blood pressures. Hematocrit was positively correlated with systolic pressure (r = 0.085, p less than 0.01 and r = 0.264, p less than 0.001 for men and women, respectively) and diastolic pressure (r = 0.214, p less than 0.001 and r = 0.266, p less than 0.001). In both sexes, whether or not the treated hypertensive group was included, age-adjusted prevalence of hypertension and average blood pressure were higher for persons in higher quintiles of hematocrit (p less than 0.001). The association of hematocrit with blood pressure and hypertension was significant and independent of several confounders. The regression coefficient of blood pressure on hematocrit ranged between 0.410 and 0.620 mm Hg per unit of hematocrit for systolic pressure and between 0.371 and 0.581 for diastolic pressure, depending on gender and whether the treated hypertensive group was included in multiple regression analysis. Based on exponentiation of the multiple logistic coefficient, prevalence of hypertension was at least two times greater for persons whose hematocrit levels were higher by 10 units.

Gender and Clinical Presentation in Adult Celiac Disease

BACKGROUND Celiac disease may present in various forms. This study aimed to investigate whether gender affects the clinical presentation of the disease in adult celiac patients from the Mediterranean area. METHODS This study retrospectively analyzes data collected in all adult patients with celiac disease (n = 195) seen during the past 13 years at the Gastrointestinal Unit of the Federico II University of Naples, Italy. RESULTS In these series of patients the ratio of women to men was 3.33. Age at diagnosis was lower in women that in men (p < 0.05). Except for asthenia, all signs and symptoms were more frequent in women than in men. Hypochromic anemia was the most commonest finding in women and was 40% more frequent in women than in men (p < 0.001). Dyspepsia was twice as frequent in women as in men (p < 0.05); genital disorders were reported by 44% of women and by no men. Recent weight loss or low body mass index was the commonest finding in men. About 60% of men and women reported diarrhea; among patients without diarrhea, the prevalence of hypochromic anemia differed between sexes (p < 0.05), occurring in about 80% of women. CONCLUSION This study shows that the clinical presentation of celiac disease is not the same in men and women. The disease is not only more frequent in women than in men but is also more severe and more rapid. The data also suggest the need to look for celiac disease in patients with unexplained hypochromic anemia.

Estimating Glomerular Filtration Rate: Cockcroft–Gault and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Formulas Compared to Renal Inulin Clearance

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Evaluation of renal function by estimation of the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is very important for the diagnosis and treatment of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The Cockcroft-Gault (CG) and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formulas are the most commonly used estimations. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS Estimated GFR values by each formula were compared with measured GFR (mGFR) by renal inulin clearance in 2208 European adults (46% women, 1.4% Caribbean blacks), with and without CKD, and mean mGFR 72.4 +/- 39.0 (range 2.2 to 177.2) ml/min/1.73 m(2). RESULTS Overall, the CG and MDRD formulas showed bias (mean difference) -3.5 ml/min/1.73 m(2) (5.3%), P < 0.001, and -9.8 ml/min/1.73 m(2) (-6.4%), P < 0.001; precision (SD of bias) 21.5 ml/min/1.73 m(2) (43.1%) and 20.0 ml/min/1.73 m(2) (33.0%); limits of agreement (2 SD by Bland-Altman method) 39.5 to -46.5 (range 86.0) ml/min/1.73 m(2) and 30.2 to -49.8 (range 80.0) ml/min/1.73 m(2); and accuracy within +/-30% of mGFR 70.8 and 69.0%, respectively. Both formulas showed a trend for decreasing accuracy with lower mGFR levels. According to the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (K/DOQI)-CKD classifications five GFR groups, the CG and MDRD formulas properly assigned 61.6 and 57.1% of the entire population and had a range of positive predictive values 42.6 to 81.8% and 39.6 to 85.2% and of negative predictive values 81.7 to 96.6% and 76.4 to 97.5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The CG and MDRD formulas had some limitations for proper GFR estimation and K/DOQI-CKD classification by GFR levels alone.

A High Percentage of BRAFV600E Alleles in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Predicts a Poorer Outcome

CONTEXT BRAF(V600E) is considered a negative prognostic marker in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), but unexplained conflicting results are present in the literature. In light of the new finding that most PTC consist of a mixture of tumor cells with wild-type and mutant BRAF, we examined the associations between the percentage of BRAF(V600E) alleles and both the clinicopathological parameters at time of diagnosis and the disease outcome in a large series of PTCs. STUDY DESIGN Tumors from 168 patients with PTC were genotyped for BRAF(V600E) using BigDye Terminator sequencing and pyrosequencing, and the clinical parameters were analyzed. The associations between clinicopathological characteristics, including disease recurrence at follow-up (median 5.1 yr) and the percentage of mutant BRAF alleles were assessed. RESULTS The observed prevalence of BRAF(V600E) was higher when using pyrosequencing then when using BigDye Terminator sequencing (53.6 vs. 36.9%). In the PTC positive for BRAF(V600E), the percentage of mutant alleles ranged from 5.1 to 44.7% of the total BRAF alleles, with a median of 20.6%. The presence or the percentage of BRAF(V600E) alleles did not correlate significantly with sex, multicentricity, lymph node metastasis, or tumor stage. The percentage of BRAF(V600E) alleles directly correlated with age at diagnosis and tumor volume (R(2) = 0.223, P = 0.039, and R(2) = 0.166, P < 0.001, respectively). The percentage of BRAF(V600E) alleles (P = 0.014), tumor volume (P = 0.012), and lymph node metastasis (P = 0.008) predicted the disease outcome. The odds ratio of recurrence for PTC with BRAF(V600E) alleles of 30% or greater, compared with that for PTC with BRAF(V600E) alleles of less than 30%, was 5.31 (P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS A high percentage of BRAF(V600E) alleles defines a PTC molecular subtype and predicts a poorer disease outcome. The analysis of BRAF mutations by pyrosequencing is useful to refine the risk stratification of patients with PTC.

Definition of Kidney Dysfunction as a Cardiovascular Risk Factor Use of Urinary Albumin Excretion and Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate

BACKGROUND Urinary albumin excretion (UAE) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) have been used separately to provide information about cardiovascular risk. We analyzed whether UAE and eGFR used together provide complementary information. METHODS We analyzed UAE, eGFR, cardiovascular risk factors, and incidence of cardiovascular disease in 1665 men and women of the Gubbio Population Study (aged 45-64 years). We designated UAE in the highest decile as high (>or= 18.6 microg/min in men and >or= 15.7 microg/min in women) and eGFR in the lowest decile as low (<64.20 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in men and <57.90 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in women). RESULTS Kidney dysfunction defined using both markers was more frequent than using 1 marker (UAE alone or eGFR alone) (P< .001) because high UAE and low eGFR clustered in different individuals and were weakly associated with each other (P= .12). The hazard ratio (HR) for incident cardiovascular disease was elevated for both markers, independently of each other (HR for high UAE, 2.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-3.49; HR for low eGFR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.32-3.48). Kidney dysfunction defined by both markers predicted cardiovascular disease independently of sex, age, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, diabetes mellitus, prior cardiovascular disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, and obesity (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.05-2.14). The discriminant power of dysfunction defined by both markers was statistically significant (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.569 [P= .02]) and slightly higher than what was found with 1 marker of diabetes mellitus, prior cardiovascular disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, and obesity. CONCLUSIONS High UAE and low eGFR provide complementary information in defining kidney dysfunction because they cluster in different individuals. Concomitant evaluation of both markers should be considered to adequately assess kidney dysfunction and cardiovascular risk.