Massimo Molinari

Interbank Contagion and Resolution Procedures: Inspecting the Mechanism

This paper develops a network model of a stylized banking system in which banks are connected to one another through interbank claims, which allows us to study the diffusion of default avalanches triggered by an exogenous shock under a number of different assumptions on the degree of interconnectedness, level of capitalization, liquidity buffers, the size of the interbank market and fire-sales. We expand upon the existing literature by embedding two alternative resolution mechanisms. First, liquidations triggered by either illiquidity or insolvency-related distress implying asset sales and compensation of creditors. Second, a bail-in mechanism avoiding bank closure by forcing a recapitalization provided by bank creditors. Our model speaks to how contagion dynamics unravel via illiquidity-driven defaults in the first case and higher-order losses in the latter one. Within this framework, we show how counter-party liquidity risk externality can be resolved and put forward a macro-criterion to assess the adequacy of the liquidity ratio introduced with Basel III.

Financial Structure and Corporate Growth: Evidence from Italian Panel Data

We study the relationships between firm financial structure and growth for a large sample of Italian firms observed from 1998 to 2003. We expand upon existing analyses testing whether liquidity constraints affect firm performance by considering among growth determinants also firm debt structure. Panel regression analyses show that more liquid firms tend to grow more. However, firms do not use their capital to expand, but rather to increase debt. We also find that firm growth is highly fragile as it is positively correlated with non financial liabilities and it is not sustained by a long term debt maturity. Finally, quantile regressions suggest that fast growing firms are characterized by higher growth cashflow sensitivities and heavily rely on external debt, but seem to be less bank backed than the rest of the sample. Overall, our findings suggest that the link between firms investment and expansion decisions is far more complicated than postulated by standard tests of investment cashflow sensitivities.

A Functional Perspective to Financial Networks

The financial sector is a critical component of any economic system, as it delivers key qualitative asset transformation services in terms of liquidity, maturity and volume. Although these functions could in principle be carried out separately by specialized actors, in the end it is their systemic co-evolution the determines how the aggregate economy performs and withstands disruptions. In this paper we argue that a functional perspective to financial intermediation can be usefully employed to investigate the functioning of financial networks. We do this in two steps. First, we use previously unreleased data to show that focusing on the economic functions performed over time by the different institutions exchanging funds in an interbank market can be informative, even if the underlying topological structure of their relations remains constant. Sec- ond, a set of alternative artificial histories are generated and stress-tested by using real data as a calibration base, with the aim of performing counterfactual welfare comparisons among different topological structures.