Mathijs A. Van Dijk

The Re-Emergence of PPP in the 1990s

In this paper we investigate purchasing power parity (PPP) in a panel with 17 countries for the period 1972 through 1996. The novel feature of our panel methodology is that results are invariant to the choice of a benchmark on numeraire currency. In the panel we allow individual country effects in the relation between prices and exchange rates. In this way we can identify the currency pairs for which PPP holds or does not hold. We conclude that there is substantive evidence for PPP, although not to the same extent for every currency. Evidence in favor of PPP is strongest for many exchange rates relative to the Dmark, and weakest for the Japanese yen. For this currency a trend-like variable, like productivity growth, is missing.

Strategic Debt: Evidence from Bertrand and Cournot Competition

We investigate how competitive behavior affects the capital structure of a firm. Theory predicts that the impact of different types of output market uncertainty (in particular, unanticipated shocks in demand and costs) on a firm’s leverage depends on the type of competition in an industry. We test these predictions in a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms by classifying firms into Cournot competition (strategic substitutes), and Bertrand competition (strategic complements). We show that demand uncertainty is positively related to leverage for firms in both the Cournot and the Bertrand sample. Cost uncertainty has a significantly positive impact on the leverage of Cournot firms, but plays a negligible role for Bertrand firms. Our results support the strategic use of debt and highlight the role of firms’ competitive behavior in the product market in their capital structure decisions.

Resurrecting the Size Effect: Firm Size, Profitability Shocks, and Expected Stock Returns

Recent studies report that the size effect in the cross-section of stock returns has disappeared after the early 1980s. This paper shows that the disappearance of the size effect from realized returns can be attributed to unexpected shocks to the profitability of small and big firms. We find that small firms experience large negative profitability shocks after the early 1980s, while big firms experience large positive shocks. As a result, realized returns of small and big firms over this period differ substantially from expected returns. After adjusting for the price impact of profitability shocks, we find that there still is a robust size effect in the cross-section of expected returns. Our results highlight the importance of in-sample cash flow shocks for understanding cross-sectional return predictability.

Why panel tests of purchasing power parity should allow for heterogeneous mean reversion

Recent studies of purchasing power parity (PPP) use panel tests that fail to take into account heterogeneity in the speed of mean reversion across real exchange rates. In contrast to several other severe restrictions of panel models and tests of PPP, the assumption of homogeneous mean reversion is still widely used and its consequences are virtually unexplored. This paper analyzes the properties of homogeneous and heterogeneous panel unit root testing methodologies. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we uncover important adverse properties of the panel approach that relies on homogeneous estimation and testing. More specifically, power functions are low and assume irregular shapes. Furthermore, homogeneous estimates of the mean reversion parameters exhibit potentially large biases. These properties can lead to misleading inferences on the validity of PPP. Our findings highlight the importance of allowing for heterogeneous estimation when testing for a unit root in panels of real exchange rates.

International Capital Flows and Liquidity

We examine whether international capital flows affect local market liquidity, and vice versa. We estimate vector autoregressions with monthly U.S. equity portfolio flows and local stock market liquidity and returns for 46 countries in six regions over 1995-2008. We find that flows to developed Europe and Asia/Pacific are positively related to local market liquidity, while U.S. market liquidity positively predicts flows to developed and emerging Europe and emerging Asia. Capital flows to various regions thus respond to home and host market liquidity. For developed America, Europe, Asia/Pacific, and emerging Asia, capital inflows are associated with an improvement in local market liquidity, which suggests that foreign investors tend to provide rather than consume liquidity on local markets. This effect is stronger for countries with greater transparency and less developed financial markets. Our analysis lends little support to the view that foreign investors destabilize local markets through an adverse impact on liquidity.

The World Price of Inflation Risk

We show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns. We analyze the price of inflation risk in a framework that includes the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) as a special case. In contrast to the literature, we relax the assumption that inflation rates are constant. We estimate and test a conditional version of the model for the G5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.) over the period 1975-2003. We find evidence of statistically significant prices of inflation risk (in addition to priced nominal exchange rate risk). We demonstrate that inflation risk premia are an economically important component of international asset returns. Our results can be interpreted as a rejection of the ICAPM. Moreover, we show that even after the termination of nominal exchange rate fluctuations in the euro area after 1999, differences in inflation rates across countries entail non-trivial real exchange rate risk premia.

An Empirical Analysis of Co-Movement in Market Efficiency Measures

This paper studies the dynamics of high-frequency market efficiency measures. We provide evidence that these measures co-move across stocks and with each other, suggesting the existence of a systematic market efficiency component. In vector autoregressions, we show that shocks to funding liquidity (the TED spread), hedge fund assets under management, and a proxy for algorithmic trading are significantly associated with systematic market efficiency. Thus, stock market efficiency is prone to systematic fluctuations, and, consistent with recent theories, events and policies that impact funding liquidity can affect the aggregate degree of price efficiency.

Do Firms Issue More Equity When Markets Are More Liquid

This paper investigates how public equity issuance is related to stock market liquidity. Using quarterly data on IPOs and SEOs in 36 countries over the period 1995-2008, we show that equity issuance is significantly and positively related to contemporaneous and lagged innovations in aggregate local market liquidity. This relation survives the inclusion of proxies for market timing, capital market conditions, growth prospects, asymmetric information, and investor sentiment. Liquidity considerations are as important in explaining equity issuance as market timing considerations. The relation between liquidity and issuance is driven by the quarters with the greatest deterioration in liquidity and is stronger for IPOs than for SEOs. Firms are more likely to carry out private instead of public equity issues and to postpone public equity issues when market liquidity worsens. Overall, we interpret our findings as supportive of the view that market liquidity is an important determinant of equity issuance that is distinct from other determinants examined to date.

The Dynamics of Market Efficiency

This paper studies the dynamics of high-frequency market efficiency measures. We provide evidence that these measures co-move across stocks and with each other, suggesting the existence of a systematic market efficiency component. In vector autoregressions, we show that shocks to funding liquidity (the TED spread), hedge fund assets under management, and a proxy for algorithmic trading are significantly associated with systematic market efficiency. Thus, stock market efficiency is prone to systematic fluctuations, and, consistent with recent theories, events and policies that impact funding liquidity can affect the aggregate degree of price efficiency.

An Empirical Analysis of Co-Movement in Market Efficiency

This paper studies the dynamics of high-frequency market efficiency measures. We provide evidence that these measures co-move across stocks and with each other, suggesting the existence of a systematic market efficiency component. In vector autoregressions, we show that shocks to funding liquidity (the TED spread), hedge fund assets under management, and a proxy for algorithmic trading are significantly associated with systematic market efficiency. Thus, stock market efficiency is prone to systematic fluctuations, and, consistent with recent theories, events and policies that impact funding liquidity can affect the aggregate degree of price efficiency.