Matt A. King

A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

Warming and Melting Mass loss from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica account for a large fraction of global sea-level rise. Part of this loss is because of the effects of warmer air temperatures, and another because of the rising ocean temperatures to which they are being exposed. Joughin et al. (p. 1172) review how ocean-ice interactions are impacting ice sheets and discuss the possible ways that exposure of floating ice shelves and grounded ice margins are subject to the influences of warming ocean currents. Estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have differed greatly—in some cases, not even agreeing about whether there is a net loss or a net gain—making it more difficult to project accurately future sea-level change. Shepherd et al. (p. 1183) combined data sets produced by satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry to construct a more robust ice-sheet mass balance for the period between 1992 and 2011. All major regions of the two ice sheets appear to be losing mass, except for East Antarctica. All told, mass loss from the polar ice sheets is contributing about 0.6 millimeters per year (roughly 20% of the total) to the current rate of global sea-level rise. The mass balance of the polar ice sheets is estimated by combining the results of existing independent techniques. We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

Fracture propagation to the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet during supraglacial lake drainage

Surface meltwater that reaches the base of an ice sheet creates a mechanism for the rapid response of ice flow to climate change. The process whereby such a pathway is created through thick, cold ice has not, however, been previously observed. We describe the rapid (<2 hours) drainage of a large supraglacial lake down 980 meters through to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet initiated by water-driven fracture propagation evolving into moulin flow. Drainage coincided with increased seismicity, transient acceleration, ice-sheet uplift, and horizontal displacement. Subsidence and deceleration occurred over the subsequent 24 hours. The short-lived dynamic response suggests that an efficient drainage system dispersed the meltwater subglacially. The integrated effect of multiple lake drainages could explain the observed net regional summer ice speedup.

Seasonal speedup along the western flank of the Greenland ice sheet

It has been widely hypothesized that a warmer climate in Greenland would increase the volume of lubricating surface meltwater reaching the ice-bedrock interface, accelerating ice flow and increasing mass loss. We have assembled a data set that provides a synoptic-scale view, spanning ice-sheet to outlet-glacier flow, with which to evaluate this hypothesis. On the ice sheet, these data reveal summer speedups (50 to 100%) consistent with, but somewhat larger than, earlier observations. The relative speedup of outlet glaciers, however, is far smaller (<15%). Furthermore, the dominant seasonal influence on Jakobshavn Isbraes flow is the calving fronts annual advance and retreat. With other effects producing outlet-glacier speedups an order of magnitude larger, seasonal melts influence on ice flow is likely confined to those regions dominated by ice-sheet flow.

Lower satellite-gravimetry estimates of Antarctic sea-level contribution

Recent estimates of Antarctica’s present-day rate of ice-mass contribution to changes in sea level range from 31 gigatonnes a year (Gt yr−1; ref. 1) to 246 Gt yr−1 (ref. 2), a range that cannot be reconciled within formal errors. Time-varying rates of mass loss contribute to this, but substantial technique-specific systematic errors also exist. In particular, estimates of secular ice-mass change derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data are dominated by significant uncertainty in the accuracy of models of mass change due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Here we adopt a new model of GIA, developed from geological constraints, which produces GIA rates systematically lower than those of previous models, and an improved fit to independent uplift data. After applying the model to 99 months (from August 2002 to December 2010) of GRACE data, we estimate a continent-wide ice-mass change of −69 ± 18 Gt yr−1 (+0.19 ± 0.05 mm yr−1 sea-level equivalent). This is about a third to a half of the most recently published GRACE estimates, which cover a similar time period but are based on older GIA models. Plausible GIA model uncertainties, and errors relating to removing longitudinal GRACE artefacts (‘destriping’), confine our estimate to the range −126 Gt yr−1 to −29 Gt yr−1 (0.08–0.35 mm yr−1 sea-level equivalent). We resolve 26 independent drainage basins and find that Antarctic mass loss, and its acceleration, is concentrated in basins along the Amundsen Sea coast. Outside this region, we find that West Antarctica is nearly in balance and that East Antarctica is gaining substantial mass.

Basal mechanics of ice streams: Insights from the stick‐slip motion of Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica

The downstream portion of Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica, moves primarily by stick-slip motion. The observation of stick-slip motion suggests that the bed is governed by velocity-weakening physics and that the basal physics is more unstable than suggested by laboratory studies. The stick-slip cycle of Whillaňs Ice Plain exhibits substantial variability in both the duration of sticky periods and in slip magnitude. To understand this variability, we modeled the forces acting on the ice stream during the stick phase of the stick-slip cycle. The ocean tides introduce changes in the rate at which stress is applied to the ice plain. Increased loading rates promote earlier failure and vice versa. Results show that the bed of Whillans Ice Stream strengthens over time (healing) during the quiescent intervals in the stick-slip cycle, with the bed weakening during slip events. The time-dependent strengthening of the ice plain bed following termination of slip events indicates that the strength of the bed may vary by up to 0.35 kPa during the course of a single day. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Accuracy assessment of global barotropic ocean tide models

The accuracy of state-of-the-art global barotropic tide models is assessed using bottom pressure data, coastal tide gauges, satellite altimetry, various geodetic data on Antarctic ice shelves, and independent tracked satellite orbit perturbations. Tide models under review include empirical, purely hydrodynamic (“forward”), and assimilative dynamical, i.e., constrained by observations. Ten dominant tidal constituents in the diurnal, semidiurnal, and quarter-diurnal bands are considered. Since the last major model comparison project in 1997, models have improved markedly, especially in shallow-water regions and also in the deep ocean. The root-sum-square differences between tide observations and the best models for eight major constituents are approximately 0.9, 5.0, and 6.5 cm for pelagic, shelf, and coastal conditions, respectively. Large intermodel discrepancies occur in high latitudes, but testing in those regions is impeded by the paucity of high-quality in situ tide records. Long-wavelength components of models tested by analyzing satellite laser ranging measurements suggest that several models are comparably accurate for use in precise orbit determination, but analyses of GRACE intersatellite ranging data show that all models are still imperfect on basin and subbasin scales, especially near Antarctica. For the M2 constituent, errors in purely hydrodynamic models are now almost comparable to the 1980-era Schwiderski empirical solution, indicating marked advancement in dynamical modeling. Assessing model accuracy using tidal currents remains problematic owing to uncertainties in in situ current meter estimates and the inability to isolate the barotropic mode. Velocity tests against both acoustic tomography and current meters do confirm that assimilative models perform better than purely hydrodynamic models.

GPS height time series: Short‐period origins of spurious long‐period signals

GPS height time series used in geophysical studies are often formed from discrete, continuous, nonoverlapping 24 hour processing sessions. With such a strategy, unmodeled periodic ground displacements with approximately semidiurnal and diurnal periods have often been assumed to average close to zero. By analyzing several years of continuous GPS data from globally distributed sites at which controlled errors were not modeled, this paper shows such an assumption to be erroneous. It is shown that each unmodeled (sub-) daily periodic displacement can propagate to several spurious long-wavelength features in a GPS height time series, ranging in period from about 2 weeks to 1 year. Admittances (ratio of amplitude of spurious long-wavelength output signal in the GPS height time series to amplitude of unmodeled periodic ground displacement) depend on the coordinate component and the tidal constituent considered. For example, it is shown that an unmodeled S2 north component periodic ground displacement can propagate to a semiannual height signal with admittance of greater than 100%, whereas the height admittance is around 5-10%. Since model errors in ocean tide loading, atmospheric pressure loading, and solid earth tide displacement amplitudes can be several millimeters, long-wavelength spurious signals of up to these amplitudes may be expected to appear in GPS height time series. This paper provides an indication of how such errors will propagate, where such errors are greatest and hence how spurious fortnightly, semiannual, and, in some cases, annual effects may be present at some sites. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Simultaneous teleseismic and geodetic observations of the stick–slip motion of an Antarctic ice stream

Long-period seismic sources associated with glacier motion have been recently discovered, and an increase in ice flow over the past decade has been suggested on the basis of secular changes in such measurements. Their significance, however, remains uncertain, as a relationship to ice flow has not been confirmed by direct observation. Here we combine long-period surface-wave observations with simultaneous Global Positioning System measurements of ice displacement to study the tidally modulated stick–slip motion of the Whillans Ice Stream in West Antarctica. The seismic origin time corresponds to slip nucleation at a region of the bed of the Whillans Ice Stream that is likely stronger than in surrounding regions and, thus, acts like an ‘asperity’ in traditional fault models. In addition to the initial pulse, two seismic arrivals occurring 10–23 minutes later represent stopping phases as the slip terminates at the ice stream edge and the grounding line. Seismic amplitude and average rupture velocity are correlated with tidal amplitude for the different slip events during the spring-to-neap tidal cycle. Although the total seismic moment calculated from ice rigidity, slip displacement, and rupture area is equivalent to an earthquake of moment magnitude seven (Mw 7), seismic amplitudes are modest (Ms 3.6–4.2), owing to the source duration of 20–30 minutes. Seismic radiation from ice movement is proportional to the derivative of the moment rate function at periods of 25–100 seconds and very long-period radiation is not detected, owing to the source geometry. Long-period seismic waves are thus useful for detecting and studying sudden ice movements but are insensitive to the total amount of slip.

Seasonal speedup of a Greenland marine‐terminating outlet glacier forced by surface melt–induced changes in subglacial hydrology

We present subdaily ice flow measurements at four GPS sites between 36 and 72 km from the margin of a marine‐terminating Greenland outlet glacier spanning the 2009 melt season. Our data show that >35 km from the margin, seasonal and shorter–time scale ice flow variations are controlled by surface melt–induced changes in subglacial hydrology. Following the onset of melting at each site, ice motion increased above background for up to 2 months with resultant up‐glacier migration of both the onset and peak of acceleration. Later in our survey, ice flow at all sites decreased to below background. Multiple 1 to 15 day speedups increased ice motion by up to 40% above background. These events were typically accompanied by uplift and coincided with enhanced surface melt or lake drainage. Our results indicate that the subglacial drainage system evolved through the season with efficient drainage extending to at least 48 km inland during the melt season. While we can explain our observations with reference to evolution of the glacier drainage system, the net effect of the summer speed variations on annual motion is small (∼1%). This, in part, is because the speedups are compensated for by slowdowns beneath background associated with the establishment of an efficient subglacial drainage system. In addition, the speedups are less pronounced in comparison to land‐terminating systems. Our results reveal similarities between the inland ice flow response of Greenland marine‐ and land‐terminating outlet glaciers.

Ice stream D flow speed is strongly modulated by the tide beneath the Ross Ice Shelf

The flow velocity of ice stream D, West Antarctica has been measured to vary by a factor of three over the course of a day. These fluctuations are measured at the grounding line as well as upstream of the grounding line in the ice plain of ice stream D. The diurnal velocity fluctations appear to be driven by the tide beneath the Ross Ice Shelf. These results suggest that there is significant, and heretofore poorly understood, influence of the ocean tide and of the ice shelf on the dynamics of ice stream flow.