Matthew Bardeen

The optimization of success probability for software projects using genetic algorithms

The software development process is usually affected by many risk factors that may cause the loss of control and failure, thus which need to be identified and mitigated by project managers. Software development companies are currently improving their process by adopting internationally accepted practices, with the aim of avoiding risks and demonstrating the quality of their work. This paper aims to develop a method to identify which risk factors are more influential in determining project outcome. This method must also propose a cost effective investment of project resources to improve the probability of project success. To achieve these aims, we use the probability of success relative to cost to calculate the efficiency of the probable project outcome. The definition of efficiency used in this paper was proposed by researchers in the field of education. We then use this efficiency as the fitness function in an optimization technique based on genetic algorithms. This method maximizes the success probability output of a prediction model relative to cost. The optimization method was tested with several software risk prediction models that have been developed based on the literature and using data from a survey which collected information from in-house and outsourced software development projects in the Chilean software industry. These models predict the probability of success of a project based on the activities undertaken by the project manager and development team. The results show that the proposed method is very useful to identify those activities needing greater allocation of resources, and which of these will have a higher impact on the projects success probability. Therefore using the measure of efficiency has allowed a modular approach to identify those activities in software development on which to focus the projects limited resources to improve its probability of success. The genetic algorithm and the measure of efficiency presented in this paper permit model independence, in both prediction of success and cost evaluation.

Evaluating logistic regression models to estimate software project outcomes

Context: Software has been developed since the 1960s but the success rate of software development projects is still low. During the development of software, the probability of success is affected by various practices or aspects. To date, it is not clear which of these aspects are more important in influencing project outcome. Objective: In this research, we identify aspects which could influence project success, build prediction models based on the aspects using data collected from multiple companies, and then test their performance on data from a single organization. Method: A survey-based empirical investigation was used to examine variables and factors that contribute to project outcome. Variables that were highly correlated to project success were selected and the set of variables was reduced to three factors by using principal components analysis. A logistic regression model was built for both the set of variables and the set of factors, using heterogeneous data collected from two different countries and a variety of organizations. We tested these models by using a homogeneous hold-out dataset from one organization. We used the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to compare the performance of the variable and factor-based models when applied to the homogeneous dataset. Results: We found that using raw variables or factors in the logistic regression models did not make any significant difference in predictive capability. The prediction accuracy of these models is more balanced when the cut-off is set to the ratio of success to failures in the datasets used to build the models. We found that the raw variable and factor-based models predict significantly better than random chance. Conclusion: We conclude that an organization wishing to estimate whether a project will succeed or fail may use a model created from heterogeneous data derived from multiple organizations.

Selecting Canopy Zones and Thresholding Approaches to Assess Grapevine Water Status by Using Aerial and Ground-Based Thermal Imaging

Aerial and terrestrial thermography has become a practical tool to determine water stress conditions in vineyards. However, for proper use of this technique it is necessary to consider vine architecture (canopy zone analysis) and image thresholding approaches (determination of the upper and lower baseline temperature values). During the 2014–2015 growing season, an experimental study under different water conditions (slight, mild, moderate, and severe water stress) was carried out in a commercial vineyard (Vitis vinifera L., cv. Carmene). In this study thermal images were obtained from different canopy zones by using both aerial (>60 m height) and ground-based (sunlit, shadow and nadir views) thermography. Using customized code that was written specifically for this research, three different thresholding approaches were applied to each image: (i) the standard deviation technique (SDT); (ii) the energy balance technique (EBT); and (iii) the field reference temperature technique (FRT). Results obtained from three different approaches showed that the EBT had the best performance. The EBT was able to discriminate over 95% of the leaf material, while SDT and FRT were able to detect around 70% and 40% of the leaf material, respectively. In the case of canopy zone analysis, ground-based nadir images presented the best correlations with stomatal conductance (gs) and stem water potential (Ψstem), reaching determination coefficients (r2) of 0.73 and 0.82, respectively. The best relationships between thermal indices and plant-based variables were registered during the period of maximum atmospheric demand (near veraison) with significant correlations for all methods.

Evaluating different families of prediction methods for estimating software project outcomes

We compare classifiers using AUC when predicting software project outcome.Attribute selection using Information Gain improves our classifiers performance.Statistical and ensemble classifiers are robust for predicting project outcome.Random Forest is the most appropriate technique for determining project outcome.Best prediction is achieved with team dynamics, process, and estimation attributes. Software has been developed since the 1960s but the success rate of development projects is still low. Classification models have been used to predict defects and effort estimation, but little work has been done to predict the outcome of these projects. Previous research shows that it is possible to predict outcome using classifiers based on key variables during development, but it is not clear which techniques provide more accurate predictions. We benchmark classifiers from different families to determine the outcome of a software project and identify variables that influence it. A survey-based empirical investigation was used to examine variables contributing to project outcome. Classification models were built and tested to identify the best classifiers for this data by comparing their AUC values. We reduce the dimensionality of the data with Information Gain and build models with the same techniques. We use Information Gain and classification techniques to identify key attributes and their relative importance. We find that four classification techniques provide good results for survey data, regardless of dimensionality reduction. We conclude that Random Forest is the most appropriate technique for predicting project outcome. We identified key attributes which are related to communication, estimation, and process review.

Detection and Segmentation of Vine Canopy in Ultra-High Spatial Resolution RGB Imagery Obtained from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV): A Case Study in a Commercial Vineyard

The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in viticulture permits the capture of aerial Red-Green-Blue (RGB) images with an ultra-high spatial resolution. Recent studies have demonstrated that RGB images can be used to monitor spatial variability of vine biophysical parameters. However, for estimating these parameters, accurate and automated segmentation methods are required to extract relevant information from RGB images. Manual segmentation of aerial images is a laborious and time-consuming process. Traditional classification methods have shown satisfactory results in the segmentation of RGB images for diverse applications and surfaces, however, in the case of commercial vineyards, it is necessary to consider some particularities inherent to canopy size in the vertical trellis systems (VSP) such as shadow effect and different soil conditions in inter-rows (mixed information of soil and weeds). Therefore, the objective of this study was to compare the performance of four classification methods (K-means, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Random Forest (RForest) and Spectral Indices (SI)) to detect canopy in a vineyard trained on VSP. Six flights were carried out from post-flowering to harvest in a commercial vineyard cv. Carmenere using a low-cost UAV equipped with a conventional RGB camera. The results show that the ANN and the simple SI method complemented with the Otsu method for thresholding presented the best performance for the detection of the vine canopy with high overall accuracy values for all study days. Spectral indices presented the best performance in the detection of Plant class (Vine canopy) with an overall accuracy of around 0.99. However, considering the performance pixel by pixel, the Spectral indices are not able to discriminate between Soil and Shadow class. The best performance in the classification of three classes (Plant, Soil, and Shadow) of vineyard RGB images, was obtained when the SI values were used as input data in trained methods (ANN and RForest), reaching overall accuracy values around 0.98 with high sensitivity values for the three classes.

Artificial Neural Network to Predict Vine Water Status Spatial Variability Using Multispectral Information Obtained from an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)

Water stress, which affects yield and wine quality, is often evaluated using the midday stem water potential (Ψstem). However, this measurement is acquired on a per plant basis and does not account for the assessment of vine water status spatial variability. The use of multispectral cameras mounted on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is capable to capture the variability of vine water stress in a whole field scenario. It has been reported that conventional multispectral indices (CMI) that use information between 500–800 nm, do not accurately predict plant water status since they are not sensitive to water content. The objective of this study was to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models derived from multispectral images to predict the Ψstem spatial variability of a drip-irrigated Carménère vineyard in Talca, Maule Region, Chile. The coefficient of determination (R2) obtained between ANN outputs and ground-truth measurements of Ψstem were between 0.56–0.87, with the best performance observed for the model that included the bands 550, 570, 670, 700 and 800 nm. Validation analysis indicated that the ANN model could estimate Ψstem with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.1 MPa, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.12 MPa, and relative error (RE) of −9.1%. For the validation of the CMI, the MAE, RMSE and RE values were between 0.26–0.27 MPa, 0.32–0.34 MPa and −24.2–25.6%, respectively.

Editorial: technological evolution in society - the evolution of mobile devices

Constant change is a fact of life, both for organisms and businesses. Just as changes in their environment alters the form of successive generations of organisms over time, changing market conditions cause businesses to adapt their product and service offerings. One of the fastest changing technologies is mobile technology, directly affecting how businesses conduct their operations and the products and services they offer in the current business ecosystem. Therefore it is helpful for companies to understand the big-picture forces behind this technological change. Thus we ask if it is possible to view technological innovation as an evolutionary process? Certainly the idea is not a new one [4], [22], however recent developments in evolutionary theory could help strengthen the relationship. Central to these advances is the notion that the influence of organisms on the environment plays a much larger role than previously imagined. Just as in biological systems, there is a large influence of technological innovation on its environment. One of the fastest changing technologies is mobile technology, directly affecting how businesses conduct their operations and the products and services they offer in the current business ecosystem. In this article we will first provide a brief overview of current evolutionary theory, then discuss this theory in the context of technological innovation through the use of recent examples in the mobile technology world.

Algorithms for the Minmax Regret Path problem with interval data

Abstract The Shortest Path in networks is an important problem incombinatorial optimization and has many applications in areas like telecommunications and transportation. It is known that this problem is easy to solve in its classic deterministic version, but it is also known that it is an NP-Hard problem for several generalizations. The Shortest Path Problem consists in finding a simple path connecting a source node and a terminal node in an arc-weighted directed network. In some real-world situations the weights are not completely known and then this problem is transformed into an optimization one under uncertainty. It is assumed that an interval estimate is given for each arc length and no further information about the statistical distribution of the weights is known. Uncertainty has been modeled in different ways in optimization. Our aim in this paper is to study the Minmax Regret path with interval data problem by presenting a new exact branch and cut algorithm and, additionally, new heuristics. A set of difficult and large size instances are defined and computational experiments are conducted for the analysis of the different approaches designed to solve the problem. The main contribution of our paper is to provide an assessment of the performance of the proposed algorithms and an empirical evidence of the superiority of a simulated annealing approach based on a new neighborhood over the other heuristics proposed.