Matthew C. Roberts

Ranking Crop Yield Models Using Out-of-Sample Likelihood Functions

There has been considerable debate regarding which probability distribution best represents crop yields. This study ranks six yield densities based on their out-of-sample forecasting performance. The forecasting ability for each density was ranked according to its likelihood function value when observed at out-of-sample observations. Results show that a semiparametric model offered by Goodwin and Ker best forecasts county average yields.

User-Steered Energy Generation and Consumption Multimodel Simulation for Pricing and Policy Development

Understanding energy use is critical. Although simulation is valuable, such models are simplified abstractions of actual energy systems. The authors present an energy system multimodel implemented with the Language and Platform Independent Steering (LAPIS) computational steering API. They present an adaptable framework for the integration and development of multimodel simulations. This framework enables independent development of component simulations, limits coordination overhead between developers, and allows modularity and flexibility in the overall multimodel simulation. Use case studies demonstrate the capabilities of the multimodel energy system simulation and LAPIS.

The Policy of Risk Management

Agricultural and food production is fundamentally different than other forms of production in the economy, and the differences require alternate methods of risk management. This chapter reviews the primary tools available to producers for the management of price and quantity risk, including insurance, government programs, and market-based instruments. Each of these tools is explained in both historical context and for how it impacts on market function. Current controversies in policy and markets and marketing are then discussed, as are recent research findings and proposed solutions. Some of the controversies addressed are the impact of speculation, packer ownership of cattle, and planting restrictions for decoupled payments.