Matthew Cairns

Estimating the potential public health impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in African children

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention, previously known as intermittent preventive treatment in children, is highly effective in areas with a short malaria transmission season. Here we assess seasonality in malaria incidence data and define a predictor of seasonality based on rainfall. We then use spatial rainfall, malaria endemicity and population data to identify areas likely to have highly seasonal malaria incidence, and estimate the population at risk and malaria burden in areas where seasonal malaria chemoprevention would be appropriate. We estimate that in areas suitable for seasonal malaria chemoprevention, there are 39 million children under 5 years of age, who experience 33.7 million malaria episodes and 152,000 childhood deaths from malaria each year. The majority of this burden occurs in the Sahelian or sub-Sahelian regions of Africa. Our data suggest that seasonal malaria chemoprevention has the potential to avert several million malaria cases and tens of thousands of childhood deaths each year if successfully delivered to the populations at risk.

Randomized trial of piperaquine with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine or dihydroartemisinin for malaria intermittent preventive treatment in children.

Background The long terminal half life of piperaquine makes it suitable for intermittent preventive treatment for malaria but no studies of its use for prevention have been done in Africa. We did a cluster randomized trial to determine whether piperaquine in combination with either dihydroartemisin (DHA) or sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is as effective, and better tolerated, than SP plus amodiaquine (AQ), when used for intermittent preventive treatment in children delivered by community health workers in a rural area of Senegal. Methods Treatments were delivered to children 3–59 months of age in their homes once per month during the transmission season by community health workers. 33 health workers, each covering about 60 children, were randomized to deliver either SP+AQ, DHA+PQ or SP+PQ. Primary endpoints were the incidence of attacks of clinical malaria, and the incidence of adverse events. Results 1893 children were enrolled. Coverage of monthly rounds and compliance with daily doses was similar in all groups; 90% of children received at least 2 monthly doses. Piperaquine combinations were better tolerated than SP+AQ with a significantly lower risk of common, mild adverse events. 103 episodes of clinical malaria were recorded during the course of the trial. 68 children had malaria with parasitaemia >3000/µL, 29/671 (4.3%) in the SP+AQ group, compared with 22/604 (3.6%) in the DHA+PQ group (risk difference 0.47%, 95%CI −2.3%,+3.3%), and 17/618 (2.8%) in the SP+PQ group (risk difference 1.2%, 95%CI −1.3%,+3.6%). Prevalences of parasitaemia and the proportion of children carrying Pfdhfr and Pfdhps mutations associated with resistance to SP were very low in all groups at the end of the transmission season. Conclusions Seasonal IPT with SP+PQ in children is highly effective and well tolerated; the combination of two long-acting drugs is likely to impede the emergence of resistant parasites. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00529620

Duration of protection against malaria and anaemia provided by intermittent preventive treatment in infants in Navrongo Ghana.

Background Intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in Infants (IPTi) has been shown to give effective and safe protection against malaria. It has been suggested that IPTi might have long-lasting beneficial effects but, in most settings, the protection provided by IPTi appears to be short-lived. Knowledge of the duration of protection given by IPTi would help interpret the results of existing trials and suggest optimal delivery schedules for IPTi. This study investigated how the protective efficacy of IPTi against malaria and anaemia changes over time. Methods and Findings A secondary analysis of data from a cluster-randomised, placebo-controlled trial of IPTi using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in Ghana was conducted. In this trial IPTi was given to 2485 infants at 3, 4, 9 and 12 months of age; children remained in follow-up until two years of age. Poisson regression with a random effect to adjust for the cluster-randomised design was used to determine protective efficacy of IPTi against clinical malaria and anaemia in defined time strata following administration of IPTi. Analysis of first-or-only clinical malaria episode following the individual IPTi doses showed that some protection against malaria lasted between 4 to 6 weeks. A similar pattern was seen when the incidence of all malaria episodes up to 2 years of age was analysed in relation to the most recent IPT, by pooling the incidence of malaria after the individual IPTi doses. Protective efficacy within four weeks of IPTi was 75.2% (95% CI: 66–82) against malaria, 78.9% (95% CI: 69–86) against high parasite density malaria, and 93.8% (95% CI: 73–99) against anaemia. Protection against these outcomes was short-lived, with evidence of any effect lasting for only 6, 6 and 4 weeks respectively. Protection in children who were parasitaemic when receiving IPTi appeared to be of shorter duration than in uninfected children. There was no evidence of any benefit of IPTi after the immediate period following the IPTi doses. Conclusions Intermittent preventive treatment provides considerable protection against malaria and anaemia for short periods, even in an area of intense seasonal transmission. Due to the relatively short duration of protection provided by each dose of IPTi, this treatment will be of most benefit when delivered at the time of peak malaria incidence.

Intermittent preventive treatment against malaria: an update

Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) against malaria is a malaria control strategy aimed at reducing the burden of malaria in certain high-risk groups, namely pregnant women and children. Three strategies – IPT in pregnancy (IPTp), infants (IPTi) and children (IPTc) – are reviewed here focusing on the mechanism of action, choice of drugs available, controversies and future research. Drugs for IPT need to be co-formulated, long acting, safe and preferably administered as a single dose. There is no obvious replacement for sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine, the most commonly utilized drug combination. All strategies face similar problems of rising drug resistance, falling malaria transmission and a policy shift from controlling disease to malaria elimination and eradication. IPT is an accepted form of malaria control, but to date only IPTp has been adopted as policy.

Contrasting benefits of different artemisinin combination therapies as first-line malaria treatments using model-based cost-effectiveness analysis.

There are currently several recommended drug regimens for uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Africa. Each has different properties that determine its impact on disease burden. Two major antimalarial policy options are artemether–lumefantrine (AL) and dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine (DHA–PQP). Clinical trial data show that DHA–PQP provides longer protection against reinfection, while AL is better at reducing patient infectiousness. Here we incorporate pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic factors, transmission-reducing effects and cost into a mathematical model and simulate malaria transmission and treatment in Africa, using geographically explicit data on transmission intensity and seasonality, population density, treatment access and outpatient costs. DHA–PQP has a modestly higher estimated impact than AL in 64% of the population at risk. Given current higher cost estimates for DHA–PQP, there is a slightly greater cost per case averted, except in areas with high, seasonally varying transmission where the impact is particularly large. We find that a locally optimized treatment policy can be highly cost effective for reducing clinical malaria burden.

Getting antimalarials on target: impact of national roll-out of malaria rapid diagnostic tests on health facility treatment in three regions of Tanzania

Parasitological confirmation of malaria prior to treatment is recommended for patients of all ages, with malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) an important tool to target artemisinin‐based combination therapies (ACTs) to patients with malaria. To evaluate the impact on case management practices of routine government implementation of mRDTs, we conducted large‐scale health facility surveys in three regions of Tanzania before and after mRDT roll‐out.

Duration of protection against clinical malaria provided by three regimens of intermittent preventive treatment in tanzanian infants.

Background Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) is a new malaria control tool. However, it is uncertain whether IPTi works mainly through chemoprophylaxis or treatment of existing infections. Understanding the mechanism is essential for development of replacements for sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) where it is no longer effective. This study investigated how protection against malaria given by SP, chlorproguanil-dapsone (CD) and mefloquine (MQ), varied with time since administration of IPTi. Methods and Findings A secondary analysis of data from a randomised, placebo-controlled trial in an area of high antifolate resistance in Tanzania was conducted. IPTi using SP, CD, MQ or placebo was given to 1280 infants at 2, 3 and 9 months of age. Poisson regression with random effects to adjust for potential clustering of malaria episodes within children was used to calculate incidence rate ratios for clinical malaria in defined time strata following IPTi. The short-acting antimalarial CD gave no protection against clinical malaria, whereas long-acting MQ gave two months of substantial protection (protective efficacy (PE) 73.1% (95% CI: 23.9, 90.5) and 73.3% (95% CI: 0, 92.9) in the first and second month respectively). SP gave some protection in the first month after treatment (PE 64.5% (95% CI: 10.6, 85.9)) although it did not reduce the incidence of malaria up to 12 months of age. There was no evidence of either long-term protection or increased risk of malaria for any of the regimens. Conclusion Post-treatment chemoprophylaxis appears to be the main mechanism by which IPTi protects children against malaria. Long-acting antimalarials are therefore likely to be the most effective drugs for IPTi, but as monotherapies could be vulnerable to development of drug resistance. Due to concerns about tolerability, the mefloquine formulation used in this study is not suitable for IPTi. Further investigation of combinations of long-acting antimalarials for IPTi is needed. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00158574

A Non-Inferiority, Individually Randomized Trial of Intermittent Screening and Treatment versus Intermittent Preventive Treatment in the Control of Malaria in Pregnancy

Background The efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) in pregnancy is threatened in parts of Africa by the emergence and spread of resistance to SP. Intermittent screening with a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and treatment of positive women (ISTp) is an alternative approach. Methods and Findings An open, individually randomized, non-inferiority trial of IPTp-SP versus ISTp was conducted in 5,354 primi- or secundigravidae in four West African countries with a low prevalence of resistance to SP (The Gambia, Mali, Burkina Faso and Ghana). Women in the IPTp-SP group received SP on two or three occasions whilst women in the ISTp group were screened two or three times with a RDT and treated if positive for malaria with artemether-lumefantrine (AL). ISTp-AL was non-inferior to IPTp-SP in preventing low birth weight (LBW), anemia and placental malaria, the primary trial endpoints. The prevalence of LBW was 15.1% and 15.6% in the IPTp-SP and ISTp-AL groups respectively (OR = 1.03 [95% CI: 0.88, 1.22]). The mean hemoglobin concentration at the last clinic attendance before delivery was 10.97g/dL and 10.94g/dL in the IPTp-SP and ISTp-AL groups respectively (mean difference: -0.03 g/dL [95% CI: -0.13, +0.06]). Active malaria infection of the placenta was found in 24.5% and in 24.2% of women in the IPTp-SP and ISTp-AL groups respectively (OR = 0.95 [95% CI 0.81, 1.12]). More women in the ISTp-AL than in the IPTp-SP group presented with malaria parasitemia between routine antenatal clinics (310 vs 182 episodes, rate difference: 49.4 per 1,000 pregnancies [95% CI 30.5, 68.3], but the number of hospital admissions for malaria was similar in the two groups. Conclusions Despite low levels of resistance to SP in the study areas, ISTp-AL performed as well as IPTp-SP. In the absence of an effective alternative medication to SP for IPTp, ISTp-AL is a potential alternative to IPTp in areas where SP resistance is high. It may also have a role in areas where malaria transmission is low and for the prevention of malaria in HIV positive women receiving cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in whom SP is contraindicated. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01084213 Pan African Clinical trials Registry PACT201202000272122

A model of parity-dependent immunity to placental malaria

Plasmodium falciparum placental infection during pregnancy is harmful for both mother and child. Protection from placental infection is parity-dependent, that is, acquired over consecutive pregnancies. However, the infection status of the placenta can only be assessed at delivery. Here, to better understand the mechanism underlying this parity-dependence, we fitted a model linking malaria dynamics within the general population to observed placental histology. Our results suggest that immunity resulting in less prolonged infection is a greater determinant of the parity-specific patterns than immunity that prevents placental sequestration. Our results also suggest the time when maternal blood first flows into the placenta is a high-risk period. Therefore, preventative strategies implementable before or early in pregnancy, such as insecticide-treated net usage in women of child-bearing age or any future vaccine, could substantially reduce the number of women who experience placental infection.

Protective Efficacy of Intermittent Preventive Treatment of Malaria in Infants (IPTi) Using Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine and Parasite Resistance

Background Intermittent Preventive Treatment of malaria in infants using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP-IPTi) is recommended by WHO for implementation in settings where resistance to SP is not high. Here we examine the relationship between the protective efficacy of SP-IPTi and measures of SP resistance. Methods and Results We analysed the relationship between protective efficacy reported in the 7 SP-IPTi trials and contemporaneous data from 6 in vivo efficacy studies using SP and 7 molecular studies reporting frequency of dhfr triple and dhps double mutations within 50km of the trial sites. We found a borderline significant association between frequency of the dhfr triple mutation and protective efficacy to 12 months of age of SP-IPTi. This association is significantly biased due to differences between studies, namely number of doses of SP given and follow up times. However, fitting a simple probabilistic model to determine the relationship between the frequency of the dhfr triple, dhps double and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations associated with resistance to SP and protective efficacy, we found a significant inverse relationship between the dhfr triple mutation frequency alone and the dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations and efficacy at 35 days post the 9 month dose and up to 12 months of age respectively. Conclusions A significant relationship was found between the frequency of the dhfr triple mutation and SP-IPTi protective efficacy at 35 days post the 9 month dose. An association between the protective efficacy to 12 months of age and dhfr triple and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations was found but should be viewed with caution due to bias. It was not possible to define a more definite relationship based on the data available from these trials.