Matthew Craig

The effect of earlier or automatic collision notification on traffic mortality by survival analysis.

Objective: This article explores the effects of earlier emergency medical services (EMS) or automatic collision notification (ACN) and EMS arrival on passenger/driver survivability within the short time frame following traffic crashes. Methods: Survival analysis techniques are used extensively in this study, because traffic crash and EMS data are closely associated with time. The Kaplan-Meier estimator and life curves are applied to compare the survival rates between 2 or more conditions (e.g., earlier verus late EMS notification); The Weibull model with 3 parameters is used to predict mortality over time; furthermore, the Cox proportional hazard model explores multiple risk factors related to traffic mortality. Results: Based on Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data from 2005 to 2009, Kaplan-Meier life curves clearly showed the benefits associated with earlier notifications (approximately 1.84% fatality reduction within a time frame of 6 h after a crash) and earlier arrivals, and the Weibull model with 3 parameters reasonably predicted the fatality trends. The relative risks (RRs) associated with collision notification, arrival, location, and age were obtained from a multiple Cox regression model, and the relatively higher fatality hazard (2.4% higher) associated with the later notification of more than 1 min was studied in detail. Conclusions: This article obtains the driver/passenger survival probabity differences over time under different conditions of collision notifications, EMS arrivals, and crash locations; furthermore, this analysis provides an estimation of the lives that could potentially be saved (approximately 154 to 290 per year) due to earlier ACN.

Real-World Rib Fracture Patterns in Frontal Crashes in Different Restraint Conditions

Objective: The purpose of this study was to use the detailed medical injury information in the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) to evaluate patterns of rib fractures in real-world crash occupants in both belted and unbelted restraint conditions. Fracture patterns binned into rib regional levels were examined to determine normative trends associated with belt use and other possible contributing factors. Methods: Front row adult occupants with Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 3+ rib fractures, in frontal crashes with a deployed frontal airbag, were selected from the CIREN database. The circumferential location of each rib fracture (with respect to the sternum) was documented using a previously published method (Ritchie et al. 2006) and digital computed tomography scans. Fracture patterns for different crash and occupant parameters (restraint use, involved physical component, occupant kinematics, crash principal direction of force, and occupant age) were compared qualitatively and quantitatively. Results: There were 158 belted and 44 unbelted occupants included in this study. For belted occupants, fractures were mainly located near the path of the shoulder belt, with the majority of fractures occurring on the inboard (with respect to the vehicle) side of the thorax. For unbelted occupants, fractures were approximately symmetric and distributed across both sides of the thorax. There were negligible differences in fracture patterns between occupants with frontal (0°) and near side (330° to 350° for drivers; 10° to 30° for passengers) crash principal directions of force but substantial differences between groups when occupant kinematics (and contacts within the vehicle) were considered. Age also affected fracture pattern, with fractures tending to occur more anteriorly in older occupants and more laterally in younger occupants (both belted and unbelted). Conclusions: Results of this study confirmed with real-world data that rib fracture patterns in unbelted occupants were more distributed and symmetric across the thorax compared to belted occupants in crashes with a deployed frontal airbag. Other factors, such as occupant kinematics and occupant age, also produced differing patterns of fractures. Normative data on rib fracture patterns in real-world occupants can contribute to understanding injury mechanisms and the role of different causation factors, which can ultimately help prevent fractures and improve vehicle safety.

Estimate of mortality reduction with implementation of advanced automatic collision notification

ABSTRACT Objective: Advanced Automatic Collision Notification (AACN) is a system on a motor vehicle that notifies a public safety answering point (PSAP), either directly or through a third party, that the vehicle has had a crash. AACN systems enable earlier notification of a motor vehicle crash and provide an injury prediction that can help dispatchers and first responders make better decisions about how and where to transport the patient, thus getting the patient to definitive care sooner. The purposes of the current research are to identify the target population that could benefit from AACN, and to develop a reasonable estimate range of potential lives saved with implementation of AACN within the vehicle fleet. Methods: Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) years 2009–2015 and National Automotive Sampling System–Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) years 2000–2015 were obtained. FARS data were used to determine absolute estimates of the target population who may receive benefit from AACN. These estimates accounted for a number of factors, such as whether a fatal occupant had nearby access to a trauma center and also was correctly identified by the injury severity prediction algorithm as having a “high probability of severe injury.” NASS-CDS data were used to provide relative comparisons among subsets of the population. Specifically, relative survival rate ratios between occupants treated at trauma centers versus at non-trauma centers were determined using the nonparametric Kaplan–Meier estimator. Finally, the fatality reduction rate associated with trauma center care was combined with the previously published fatality reduction rate for faster notification time to develop a range for possible lives saved. Results: Two relevant target populations were identified. A larger subset of 6893 fatalities can benefit only from earlier notification associated with AACN. A smaller subgroup of between 1495 and 2330 fatalities can benefit from both earlier notification and change in treatment destination (i.e., non-trauma center to trauma center). A Kaplan–Meier life curve and a multiple proportional hazard model were used to predict the benefits associated with transport to a trauma center. The resulting range for potential lives saved annually was 360 to 721. Conclusions: This analysis provides the estimates of lives that could potentially be saved with full implementation of AACN and universal cell coverage availability. This represents a fatality reduction of approximately 1.6% to 3.3% per year, and more than double the lives saved by earlier notification alone. In conclusion, AACN is a postcrash technology with a promising potential for safety benefit. AACN is therefore a key component of integrated safety systems that aim to protect occupants across the entire crash spectrum.

Male and female WorldSID and post mortem human subject responses in full-scale vehicle tests

ABSTRACT Objective: This study compares the responses of male and female WorldSID dummies with post mortem human subject (PMHS) responses in full-scale vehicle tests. Methods: Tests were conducted according to the FMVSS-214 protocols and using the U.S. Side Impact New Car Assessment Program change in velocity to match PMHS experiments, published earlier. Moving deformable barrier (MDB) tests were conducted with the male and female surrogates in the left front and left rear seats. Pole tests were performed with the male surrogate in the left front seat. Three-point belt restraints were used. Sedan-type vehicles were used from the same manufacturer with side airbags. The PMHS head was instrumented with a pyramid-shaped nine-axis accelerometer package, with angular velocity transducers on the head. Accelerometers and angular velocity transducers were secured to T1, T6, and T12 spinous processes and sacrum. Three chest bands were secured around the upper, middle, and lower thoraces. Dummy instrumentation included five infrared telescoping rods for assessment of chest compression (IR-TRACC) and a chest band at the first abdomen rib, head angular velocity transducer, and head, T1, T4, T12, and pelvis accelerometers. Results: Morphological responses of the kinematics of the head, thoracic spine, and pelvis matched in both surrogates for each pair. The peak magnitudes of the torso accelerations were lower for the dummy than for the biological surrogate. The brain rotational injury criterion (BrIC) response was the highest in the male dummy for the MDB test and PMHS. The probability of AIS3+ injuries, based on the head injury criterion, ranged from 3% to 13% for the PMHS and from 3% to 21% for the dummy from all tests. The BrIC-based metrics ranged from 0 to 21% for the biological and 0 to 48% for the dummy surrogates. The deflection profiles from the IR-TRACC sensors were unimodal. The maximum deflections from the chest band placed on the first abdominal rib were 31.7 mm and 25.4 mm for the male and female dummies in the MDB test, and 37.4 mm for the male dummy in the pole test. The maximum deflections computed from the chest band contours at a gauge equivalent to the IR-TRACC location were 25.9 mm and 14.8 mm for the male and female dummies in the MDB test, and 37.4 mm for the male dummy in the pole test. Other data (static vehicle deformation profiles, accelerations histories of different body regions, and chest band contours for the dummy and PMHS) are given in the appendix. Conclusions: This is the first study to compare the responses of PMHS and male and female dummies in MDB and pole tests, done using the same recent model year vehicles with side airbag and head curtain restraints. The differences between the dummy and PMHS torso accelerations suggest the need for design improvements in the WorldSID dummy. The translation-based metrics suggest low probability of head injury. As the dummy internal sensor underrecorded the peak deflection, multipoint displacement measures are therefore needed for a more accurate quantification of deflection to improve the safety assessment of occupants.

Development of thoracic injury risk functions for the THOR ATD

The Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR) 50th percentile male anthropomorphic test device (ATD) aims to improve the ability to predict the risk of chest injury to restrained automobile occupants by measuring dynamic chest deflection at multiple locations. This research aimed to describe the methods for developing a thoracic injury risk function (IRF) using the multi-point chest deflection metrics from the 50th percentile male THOR Metric ATD with the SD-3 shoulder and associating to post-mortem human subjects (PMHS) outcomes that were matched on identical frontal and frontal-oblique impact sled testing conditions. Several deflection metrics were assessed as potential predictor variables for AIS 3+ injury risk, including a combined metric, called PC Score, which was generated from a principal component analysis. A parametric survival analysis (specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) with Weibull distribution) was assessed in the development of the IRF. Model fit was assessed using various modeling diagnostics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Models based on resultant deflection consistently exhibited improved fit compared to models based on x-axis deflection or chord deflection. Risk functions for the THOR PC Score and Cmax (maximum resultant deflection) were qualitatively equivalent, producing AUCs of 0.857 and 0.861, respectively. Adjusting for the potential confounding effects of age, AFT survival models with Cmax or PC Score as the primary deflection metric resulted in the THOR injury risk models with the best combination of biomechanical appropriateness, potential utility and model fit, and may be recommended as injury predictors.