Matthew Cummins

When the Global Crisis and Youth Bulge Collide: Double the Jobs Trouble for Youth

This working paper: (i) describes recent labour market trends; (ii) analyzes how young people are experiencing a double employment crisis as a result of the demographic phenomenon known as the ‘youth bulge,’ which aggravates the already low demand for labour during the economic downturn; (iii) explores the household level impacts of the jobs crisis, with particular attention to the severe risks posed to children and young workers; (iv) discusses policy responses during the two phases of the crisis—fiscal expansion (2008-09) and fiscal contraction (2010- ); and (v) presents a UN agenda on how to generate decent employment, which covers macroeconomic and sector policy options along with labour-specific strategies to place jobs, especially for youth, at the center of recovery efforts.

Austerity Measures in Developing Countries: Public Expenditure Trends and the Risks to Children and Women

This study examines how austerity measures may have adversely affected children and women in a sample of 128 developing countries in 2012. It relies on International Monetary Fund (IMF) fiscal projections and IMF country reports to gauge how social assistance and other public spending decisions have evolved since the start of the global economic crisis. The study finds that most developing countries boosted total expenditures during the first phase of the crisis (2008–09); but beginning in 2010, budget contraction became widespread, with ninety-one governments cutting overall spending in 2012. Moreover, the data suggest that nearly one-quarter of developing countries underwent excessive fiscal contraction, defined as cutting expenditures below pre-crisis levels. Governments considered four main options to achieve fiscal consolidation – wage bill cuts/caps, phasing out subsidies, further targeting social safety nets, and reforming old-age pensions – each of which would be likely to have a disproportionately negative impact on children and women.

Uganda's Experience with Real Time Monitoring: mTrac and U-Report

This report reviews two real time monitoring initiatives in Uganda that utilize Rapid Short Message Service (RapidSMS) technology: mTrac and U-report. mTrac is a routine data system that uses RapidSMS to accelerate the submission of community and health facility data from local to district to national levels, including disease surveillance, malaria treatment and drug stock indicators. This new system replaced the older paper-based reporting system and makes it possible for staff at health facilities to use their own mobile phones to report on stock levels and usage rates for anti-malarial medicines, with data made instantly available on a web-based dashboard to government managers. To improve response and strengthen accountability, the system also incorporates crowd-sourcing reports of service delivery complaints through an anonymous SMS hotline. In addition to providing information in a timelier manner and making information more accessible, mTrac has found widespread acceptance across local and national levels, and Uganda’s Ministry of Health has taken full ownership of its operation. Although mTrac was initially piloted in a few selected districts in late 2011, it is expected to cover all 5,000 health facilities across the country in 2013.The early experiences of mTrac offer a number of important lessons for RTM. First, the success of the rolling out of mTrac in Uganda suggests that such this type of routine data system could be adapted in many countries to achieve both cost-savings and more efficient and accurate monitoring of key supply and demand health indicators in vulnerable areas. Second, adapting multiple reporting mechanisms can maximize the quality of information received by a RTM initiative. In the case of mTrac, this is achieved by cross-checking the SMS data submitted by the health facilities with information received from the anonymous SMS hotline as well as independent reports sent by volunteer health teams at the community level. Third, RapidSMS reporting holds vast potential to enhance the inclusivity and effectiveness of service delivery systems that are tracked by integrated RTM initiatives. Not only has the electronic reporting system reduced leakage of drugs from the public health system, but mTrac has also introduced more transparency and accountability into the health system, empowered district and national managers with actionable information and helped to ensure the availability of antimalarial treatment for all Ugandan citizens. Lastly, mTrac demonstrates that systematic RTM initiatives can also serve as effective sub-national service delivery tools and support decentralization objectives.U-report, in contrast, was conceived as a social and community-based monitoring system that uses RapidSMS. It offers young Ugandans a chance to voice their opinions on issues that they care about by giving them access to a free SMS service through which they can send in text messages, respond to polls, and receive factual information and results. UNICEF developed the software application and built a web platform for managing communications between the social monitors, called U-reporters, and the central managers. Although the overall objective is to empower youth in general, specific issues tackled by U-reporters often address the needs of vulnerable children, and U-report further possesses the capability of soliciting information from specific areas as well as age groups that are vulnerable. Regarding uses, U-report raises awareness on different issues, supports community-led development, fosters information sharing, including with parliamentarians, and serves as a tool for local and national policy advocacy. At the end of 2012, there were more than 170,000 U-reporters across Uganda (average of 24) and over 200 polls posted on the website..

Real Time Monitoring for the Most Vulnerable: UNICEF's Experience in Uganda

This article reviews two Real Time Monitoring (RTM) initiatives in Uganda that utilise RapidSMS technology. mTrac uses mobile phones to transmit local health information, including disease surveillance, malaria treatment and drug stocks. This electronic‐based reporting system replaced a paper‐based one, enabling actionable information to be delivered more quickly. Its early success in Uganda suggests that similar systems could be introduced elsewhere to achieve cost‐savings and more efficient monitoring of key supply and demand health indicators in vulnerable areas. U‐report offers young Ugandans a chance to voice their opinions on pertinent issues by giving them access to a free SMS service through which they can send in text messages, respond to polls, and receive factual information and results. Although the objective is to empower all youth, U‐reporters often tackle issues that address the needs of vulnerable children and communities. The ability to target polls by regions is an exciting feature, and further research is warranted to better understand U‐reports sampling potential.

Introduction: Real Time Monitoring for the Most Vulnerable - Investing in Common Guidance for Equity and Quality

Growth in the use of real‐time digital information for monitoring has been rapid in developing countries across all the social sectors, and in the health sector has been remarkable. Commonly these Real Time Monitoring (RTM) initiatives involve partnerships between the state, civil society, donors and the private sector. There are differences between partners in understanding objectives, and further divergence often occurs due to adoption of specific technology‐driven approaches and because profit‐making is a part of the equation for some partners. With the swarming, especially of pilot mHealth initiatives, in many countries there is risk of chaotic disconnects, of confrontation between rights and profits, and of overall failure to encourage appropriate alliances to build sustainable and effective national RTM systems. What is needed is a country‐led process for strengthening the quality and equity sensitivity of real‐time monitoring initiatives. This article proposes the development of an effective learning and action agenda centred on the adoption of common guidance.

From 'What Happened?' to 'What's Happening?' Equity in Action Through Real Time Monitoring

The use of real time monitoring (RTM) of key social services and socio-economic conditions is growing exponentially in rich and poor countries alike as a tool for better and faster decision-making. Service providers, development actors and civil society activists have recognised its potential for identifying emerging priorities, pinpointing bottlenecks in service delivery, increasing accountability and providing a voice for marginalised populations. UNICEF country offices are part of this trend, increasingly supporting initiatives that aim to harness the potential of RTM for children.This report presents evidence and proposes ideas on how RTM can be utilised to advance social inclusion, equity and child rights. The information is the result of a UNICEF learning initiative which sought to better understand how RTM could make a difference for the most vulnerable. The learning initiative assessed selected UNICEF-supported RTM initiatives, conducted an extensive literature review related to RTM experiences and consulted with key practitioners both within UNICEF and beyond.The main finding is that RTM is making a difference in the design of policies and programmes for children: empowering vulnerable populations, improving local planning and service delivery, strengthening crisis or emergency preparedness, and enhancing equity-focused policies, plans and budgets. Preliminary evidence also indicates that RTM is contributing to concrete results for children, including saving lives by improving supply chain management, preventing infant and maternal deaths by strengthening demand for health services, and providing better support to children who are most at risk of violence by speedier entry and sharing of case management information. Such RTM results occur when initiatives go beyond rapid data collection to speedy use and responsive action. Ensuring that RTM initiatives are guided by a systemic approach (e.g. paying attention to each of the distinct components that define effective RTM — data analysis, reporting and response capacity) is crucial to maximize the potential of future initiatives.

The Capacity Continuum: Tracking the Capacity of State Institutions in Driving Human Development

This paper examines the relationship between a state’s institutional capacity and human development. After analyzing human development trends since 1980 and the state’s role in helping to explain variance, the paper carries out a series of empirical exercises using a proxy variable for institutional state capacity — the Government Effectiveness Index (GEI) from the World Governance Indicators — and human development as measured by UNDP’s Human Development Index (HDI). The panel data, which captures more than a decade of performance, suggests a strong, positive relationship between a state’s institutional capacity and its progress on human development. Plotting the data further reveals a ‘capacity continuum’ in which countries seem to follow a common trajectory over time. The data trends suggest that countries with low institutional capacity and low levels of human development struggle to escape the capacity-deficit trap. Conversely, states that boast high levels of human development and low levels of institutional capacity remain highly vulnerable to shocks and are oftentimes those hardest hit. The data trends also suggest that countries characterized by strong state institutions and high levels of human development are those that are most resilient and best able to withstand and manage shocks even during short-term downturns. Given the context-specificity and idiosyncratic nature of institutional change, the paper provides illustrations of the different typologies of countries along the capacity continuum. The investigation concludes by offering the capacity continuum as an analytical tool to support policymakers in their prioritization of policies and investments.