Matthew D. Phillips

Explaining Systematic Bias in Self-Reported Measures: Factors that Affect the Under- and Over-Reporting of Self-Reported Arrests

The self-report method of collecting data on delinquency, crime, and arrests continues to be one of the most popular techniques of examining the causes of such behavior and assessing the bias in the responses to it. However, the problem of systematic bias in reporting such data continues to cloud its use. Self-report data from a longitudinal study of youth at high risk for serious delinquent behavior are compared with data from official police records to examine systematic bias in both the under-reporting and over-reporting of self-reported arrests. Although under-reporting and over-reporting occur in nearly equal proportions in our data, we find that these two phenomena operate quite differently. Further, we show that systematic bias of self-reported arrests is largely a function of the number of official arrests, and that the effect is non-linear. We offer explanations for these findings, and discuss their implications for the future use of self-report methods.

Shelter During the Storm: A Search for Factors That Protect At-Risk Adolescents From Violence

Using data from the Rochester Youth Development Study, the authors show that trajectories of past violence predict future violence better than other more traditional measures of risk. The authors then evaluate whether factors that can be manipulated during this time can both promote less violence for all individuals as well as protect against violence among those who are most at risk for more violence. This article finds that several factors protect youth from violent behavior but not from gun or weapon carrying. Implications of these findings for future research on risk and protective factors of youth violence and for strategies for preventing such behavior are discussed.

Are Risky Youth Less Protectable As They Age? The Dynamics of Protection During Adolescence and Young Adulthood.

Research on recidivism in criminal justice and desistance in criminology are not integrated. Yet, both fields are moving towards models that look at how positive elements in a person’s environment can impact a person’s behavior, conditional on different levels of risk. This study builds on this observation by applying interactional theory and the concept of Risk–Needs–Responsivity to theorize that both Needs and Responsivity will change over time in predictable ways. We then use a novel empirical approach with the Rochester Youth Development Study to show that even in late adolescence, individuals who are at risk for violence can be protected from future violence and risky behavior like gun carrying with positive events in their environment and personal life. In young adulthood, fewer people are still at risk for violence, and those who are at risk are harder to protect from future violence and gun carrying.

The Overall Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime

Abstract This paper analyses the 13 business cycles since 1933 to provide evidence on the old question of whether recessions cause crime. Using data from the United States, we find that recessions are consistently associated with an uptick in burglary and robbery, and a reduction in theft of motor vehicles. There is no statistical association with homicide. These patterns are suggestive of the relative importance of the various channels by which economic conditions influence crime.

Assessing the Impact of Drug Use and Drug Selling on Violent Offending in a Panel of Delinquent Youth

Despite a vast number of empirical studies arguing for or against a causal relationship between illegal drug use and selling and violent behavior, the debate continues. In part this is due to methodological weaknesses of previous research. Using data from the Rochester Youth Development Study, the current study seeks to improve on prior research designs to allow for a more precise examination of the mechanisms that lead from an individual’s drug use (chiefly, marijuana use in the current sample) and drug selling to violent action. Results will allow for greater confidence in making causal inference regarding a long-standing concern in the discipline.

The Net Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime and Violence

The paper analyzes the causal effects of the business cycle on crime. Among the main conclusions are that robbery and burglary are countercyclical, motor vehicle theft is pro-cyclical, and criminal homicide is acyclical. We also analyze suicide patterns, finding that while suicide rates overall are countercyclical, suicide rates by younger teens are actually procyclical. The paper begins with a discussion of causal mechanisms linking economic conditions to crime and violence, both overall and for youths. We investigate the effect of short-term fluctuations in economic activity on crime and violence (and on arrest rates) using the quasi-experimental analysis of the last 13 business cycles (beginning in 1933). We then develop and implement a second approach, a regression analysis on detrended data, and report the results. The regression analysis generally confirms the qualitative results from the quasi-experimental approach, and provides estimates of magnitudes.

Understanding modern terror and insurgency through the lens of street gangs: ISIS as a case study

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to use nearly a century’s worth of gang research to inform us about modern terrorist groups, specifically the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Design/methodology/approach A case study approach is employed, comparing and contrasting the competing theoretical frameworks of gangs and terrorist organisations to understand group structure, demographics, patterns of behaviour (e.g. territoriality, strategic, and instrumental violence), goals, and membership patterns of ISIS. Findings The qualitative differences of ISIS make them more comparable to street gangs than other terrorist groups. Practical implications ISIS, while being qualitatively different from other terrorist groups, actually has many similarities with street gangs allowing for the adaptation of effective gang prevention, intervention, and suppression strategies. This paper highlights how the expansive literature on street gangs is able to inform practical interventions to directly target ISIS and deradicalise potential recruits. By introducing a gang-terror nexus on the crime-terror continuum, this paper provides a useful perspective on the decentralised but dynamic nature of modern era insurgencies. This paper urges similar case studies of terrorist organisations to determine the extent to which they conform to street gang characteristics. Originality/value Terrorist groups are often compared to street gangs, yet it has not been until the last few years that gang researchers (Curry, 2011; Decker and Pyrooz, 2011, 2015a, b) have begun to compare and contrast these two deviant group archetypes. The goal of this paper is to use nearly a hundred years of gang research to better equip scholars and practitioners with a broader understanding of terrorism and insurgency in the era of globalisation by presenting a case study of ISIS using a street gang perspective.

On the Association Between Repeat Bully Victimizations and Carrying a Firearm Evidence in a National Sample

Bullying is a significant public concern. The purpose of the present study is to investigate whether being repeatedly victimized by a bully during childhood and adolescence is associated with gun carrying in adolescence and adulthood. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, we found that just over one fourth of the respondents reported carrying a gun at some point in their lifetime. Respondents experiencing repeat bully victimizations reported higher rates of gun carrying during the last 12 months and the last 30 days. No support was found for the association of repeat bully victimizations and carrying a gun to school. Individuals victimized during childhood (before the age of 12) and during adolescence were found to be at risk of carrying a gun later in the life course. Repeat bully victimizations should be considered a marker for gun-carrying behaviors in adolescence and adulthood.

Adult Consequences of Bully Victimization: Are Children or Adolescents More Vulnerable to the Victimization Experience?

Although evidence exists that bully victimizations are related to a range of negative outcomes later in the life course, existing research has largely ignored the timing of the victimization experience. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, the present study uses propensity score matching to investigate the adult consequences of victims experiencing repeated bullying in childhood, adolescence, or both developmental periods. Individuals victimized as children reported higher instances of arrests, convictions, violence, and substance use than child nonvictims. The results point to the importance of implementing effective prevention programs early in the life course.

Exploring Resiliency Within Schools An Investigation of the Effects of Protective Factors

Although research has explored the effects of protective factors on fostering resiliency within individuals, the same level of inquiry has not emerged investigating the causes of why high-risk organizations are resilient to serious violent delinquency. One type of organization that seems particular appropriate for research inquiry is the school. Using a sample of 307 school principals from the School Survey on Crime and Safety, this study investigates how protective factors are individually and cumulatively related to resiliency against serious violence within schools. The findings indicate schools may be more reactive than proactive in their efforts to remain resilient. The theoretical and policy implications of these findings are discussed.