Matthew E. Kirby

Increasing Great Lake–Effect Snowfall during the Twentieth Century: A Regional Response to Global Warming?

Abstract The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on the climate of surrounding regions is significant, especially in leeward settings where lake-effect snowfall occurs. Heavy lake-effect snow represents a potential natural hazard and plays important roles in winter recreational activities, agriculture, and regional hydrology. Changes in lake-effect snowfall may represent a regional-scale manifestation of hemispheric-scale climate change, such as that associated with global warming. This study examines records of snowfall from several lake-effect and non-lake-effect sites throughout most of the twentieth century in order to 1) determine whether differences in snowfall trends exist between these settings and 2) offer possible linkages between lake-effect snow trends and records of air temperature, water temperature, and ice cover. A new, historic record of oxygen isotope [δ18O(CaCO3)] data from the sediments of three eastern Finger Lakes in central New York is presented as a means of independently asses...

A Heinrich‐like event, H‐0 (DC‐0): Source(s) for detrital carbonate in the North Atlantic during the Younger Dryas Chronozone

In the North Atlantic we define H-0 as a Heinrich-like event which occurred during the Younger Dryas chron. On the SE Baffin shelf prior to 11 ka, surface water productivity was reasonably high, as measured by the numbers of diatom and planktic foraminifera per gram, but an abrupt increase in detrital carbonate (DC-0 event) (from approximately 15% up to 50% carbonate by weight) occurred at 11 ± 14C ka and continued to circa 10 ka. These deposits, 2–6 m thick, are dominated by detrital calcite and silt- and clay-sized sediments. During this event (DC-0/H-0), ice extended onto the inner shelf but did not reach the shelf break and probably originated from a center over Labrador-Ungava. As a consequence, the pattern of ice-rafted debris and sediment provenance shown by H-O in the North Atlantic is different from that during H-1 (14.5 ka) or H-2 (20 ka) when the ice sheet extended along the axis of Hudson Strait and may have reached the shelf break; for example, there is no concrete evidence for DC-O is cores on the floor of the Labrador Sea due east of Hudson Strait (HU75-55,-56), but H-O has been noted in cores off Newfoundland and west of Ireland. A coeval carbonate event to DC-0, but this one dominated by dolomite, occurs in HU82-SU5 on the west side of Davis Strait with a source either from northern Baffin Bay or Cumberland Sound. Although other sources for North Atlantic detrital carbonate cannot be totally excluded, our evidence suggests that H-0 represents the expression of glaciological instability of the Laurentide Ice Sheet within the general region of Hudson Strait and probably to the north (Cumberland Sound and northernmost Baffin Bay). There is one younger DC event, dated circa 8.4 ka, present in sediments along the Labrador margin and in Hudson Strait, which represents the final collapse of the ice sheet within Hudson Strait and Hudson Bay.

Antarctic Peninsula climate variability: historical and paleoenvironmental perspectives

The Antarctic Peninsula region represents our best natural laboratory to investigate how earths major climate systems interact and how such systems respond to rapid regional warming. The scale of environmental changes now taking place across the region is large and their pace rapid but the subsystems involved are still small enough to observe and accurately document cause and affect mechanisms. For example, clarification of ice shelf stability via the Larsen Ice Shelf is vital to understanding the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet, its climate evolution, and its response to and control of sea level. By encompassing the broadest range of interdisciplinary studies, this volume provides the global change research and educational communities a framework in which to advance our knowledge of the causes behind regional warming, the dramatic glacial and ecological responses, and the potential uniqueness of the event within the regions paleoclimate record. The volume also serves as a vital resource for public policy and governmental funding agencies as well as a means to educate the large number of ecotourists that visit the region each austral summer.

Late glacial–Holocene atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the northeast United States inferred from modern calibrated stable oxygen and carbon isotopes

As global climate changes because of anthropogenic influences, it has become critical to better understand past climate and its various forcing mechanisms as a baseline for future comparison. To this end, we present a continental isotopic record from an 11.2-m-long wetland piston core sampled at 10‐50 yr resolution; the core was taken in the heavily populated, economically vibrant northeastern United States (adjacent to Fayetteville Green Lake) and spans 14,600‐3200 cal. yr B.P. We use a historically based correlation between d 18 Ocalcite obtained from individual varves in a box core from Fayetteville Green Lake and winter atmospheric circulation over the northeast United States to examine the way in which changes in winter circulation have influenced d 18 O in precipitation from 14,600 to 3200 cal. yr B.P. Our correlation analysis suggests that in periods during which the circumpolar westerlies are expanded, storms track more frequently from the Gulf of Mexico region, delivering precipitation with relatively high d 18 O values to the study site. By contrast, contracted westerlies result in more frequent low-d 18 Oprecipitation cross-continental storms. By using this relationship we model winter-vortex latitudes over the northeast United States for the prehistoric oxygen isotope record, focusing on millennial-scale

Mid-Wisconsin Laurentide ice sheet growth and decay: Implications for Heinrich events 3 and 4

A close look at the sedimentology of Heinrich event 4 from the northwest Labrador Sea indicates that an extended ice margin, perhaps greater than before Heinrich events 1 or 2 (H-1 and H-2), existed in the Hudson Strait region pre-Heinrich event 4 (H-4) and, that on the basis of characteristics of the sediment unit, Heinrich event-4 was different than Heinrich events 1 or 2 (i.e., larger ice sheet collapse(?), longer duration(?), “dirtier” icebergs(?)). Other data from across the southern and eastern margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, as well as Greenland and the North Atlantic, support this interpretation, possibly indicating a relative mid-Wisconsin glacial maximum pre-Heinrich event 4. Many of these data also indicate that Heinrich event 4 (35 ka) resulted in serious climatic and oceanographic reorganizations. We suggest that Heinrich event 4 gutted the Hudson Strait, leaving it devoid of ice for Heinrich event 3. We further hypothesize that Heinrich event 3 did not originate from axial ice transport along the Hudson Strait; thus Heinrich event 3 may be more analogous to the proposed northward advancing ice from Ungava Bay during Heinrich event 0 than to the more typical down-the-strait flow during H-1, H-2, and H-4. Consequently, the climatic and oceanographic impacts resulting from Heinrich events are highly susceptible to the type, origin, and magnitude of ice sheet collapse, something which varied per Heinrich event during the last glacial period.

Shelf erosion and glacial ice proximity in the Labrador Sea during and after Heinrich events (H-3 or 4 to H-0) as shown by foraminifera

Abstract Collapses of the marine-based Laurentide Ice Sheet during the last glaciation are documented by large, abrupt influxes of detrital carbonate into the northwest Labrador Sea, known as detrital carbonate or Heinrich events. The extent of grounded ice on the continental shelf is poorly constrained for these events, but has been assumed to be at the shelf edge. Possible grounding line positions of ice streams in Hudson Strait and Cumberland Sound over the last c. 34 ka are delimited using the abundance of shelf-dwelling benthic foraminifera, sediment colour and calcite to dolomite ratios in two Labrador Sea cores (87033-009 LCF and 75-009-IV-55 PC). Heinrich events 1 and 2 contain no evidence of glacial erosion of the continental shelf, suggesting that the Hudson Strait ice stream may have grounded on the Hudson Strait sill or on the inner shelf rather than at the shelf edge during these events. Dark grey, dolomite-rich sediments with abundant shelf-dwelling foraminifera document an advance of Cumberland Sound ice onto the shelf after H-3 or H-4 (c. 34 ka), but before H-2 (c. 21 ka). Cumberland Sound ice readvanced to a position at or near the shelf edge at c. 11.1 ka, during the Younger Dryas chron. This advance is nearly synchronous with an advance of Labradorean ice on the southeastern Baffin Shelf and with a detrital carbonate event in Sunneshine Fjord, to the north, suggesting climatic forcing of separate ice dispersal centres during the Younger Dryas.

A 2500 year sediment record from Fayetteville Green Lake, New York: evidence for anthropogenic impacts and historic isotope shift

A series (N = 12) of short (< 1 m) sediment cores were collected from meromictic Green Lake in Fayetteville, New York to investigate potential anthropogenic impacts on the watershed during historic time and environmental change over the past ~ 2,500 years. Stratigraphic data document an abrupt basinwide change during the early 1800s A.D. from brown laminated sediments to grey varved sediments separated by a transition zone rich in aquatic moss. Deforestation of the region by European settlers during the early 1800s A.D. resulted in a flux of nutrients and increased biological productivity followed by a 7‐fold increase in sediment accumulation rates. Elemental geochemical data document the anthropogenic loading of lead to the to the lake basin via atmospheric fallout. Stable oxygen isotope (δ18O calcite) data also provide evidence for an abrupt shift in the isotopic composition of lake water ~ 150–200 years ago. This isotopic shift could have been a local phenomenon related to an increased supply of summer enriched precipitation following removal of forest vegetation, or it might have reflected broader scale climatic changes. We hypothesize that the δ18O calcite shift was the result of the polar front jet stream migrating from a more southerly prehistoric position to a contracted, northerly configuration ~ 150–200 years ago. Such a shift could have been natural, associated with the end of the Little Ice Age or it may have been anthropogenically forced.

Magnetic stratigraphy and sedimentology of Holocene glacial marine deposits in the Palmer Deep, Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica: implications for climate change?

Abstract The Palmer Deep is a closed bathymetric depression on the Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf. It contains three separate sub-basins. These basins lie along a northeast–southwest axis with water depths ranging from >1400 m to the southwest (Basins II and III) to just over 1000 m to the northeast (Basin I). Six sediment piston cores were collected from the study region; these cores clearly demonstrate the varied sediment character for each basin. Sediments in Basin I are laminated and thinly bedded consisting of diatomaceous, pelagic/hemipelagic sediments, siliciclastic, terrigenous sediments, and ice rafted, hemipelagic sediments. In concurrence with other investigators, we propose that these laminations and thin beds represent climatically forced productivity cycles. Basin II and Basin III sediments alternate between pelagic/hemipelagic units and bio-siliceous mud turbidites. Correlations between cores are based on their remarkable magnetic susceptibility (MS) records which indicate alternating biogenic (low MS) and siliciclastic (high MS) dominated sedimentation; the bio-siliceous mud turbidites are characterized by intermediate to low MS values. Cores taken from within the main axis of the basins are expanded ultra-high resolution sections. A core collected on the sill between Basins II and III represents a condensed sediment section and may contain a complete Holocene record of changing paleoenvironments, one that records the transition from a glacial, ice shelf environment to an open marine, Holocene environment. A sharp drop in magnetic susceptibility at mid-core is a common sedimentological feature of each basin. Presently, we favor a climate change hypothesis for this magnetic lithostratigraphic transition which may reflect the termination of the Holocene Hypsithermal and a marked change in productivity dated ca. 2500 years BP.

Lacustrine isotopic evidence for multidecadal natural climate variability related to the circumpolar vortex over the northeast United States during the past millennium

A pervasive 20-30 yr periodicity is observed in stable oxygen isotope values over the past 1000 yr from varved lacustrine calcite obtained from Fayetteville Green Lake, New York. Correlation analysis between historical oxygen isotope values and winter vortex latitude shows an inverse relationship wherein an expanded vortex is associated with high d 18 Ocalcite values, and vice versa. An expansion of the vortex favors advection of cyclones from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic regions characterized by high d 18 Oprecipitation values, whereas a contracted vortex favors the development of cross-continental storms originating in the Pacific, which preferentially rain out 18 O as they propagate eastward. We hypothesize that changes in the size of the winter vortex every 20-30 yr over the past 1000 yr modify the primary source regions for meteoric precipitation. We propose two possible climate forcings to explain our hypothesis: an external forcing related to solar variability and an internal forcing related to ocean-atmosphere links.

3000 years of environmental change at Zaca Lake, California, USA

Climatic variations of the last few millennia can reveal patterns of variability beyond that recorded by the instrumental record. In this study we use pollen and sediments to generate a high resolution 3000 year record of vegetation and climate along the southern California coast. An increase in Pinus and Quercus pollen found in the top 100 years of the record is a result of known planting and fire suppression by the forest service. In the pre-historic record, a period of high Salix percentages and high pollen concentration from 500-250 cal yr BP represents the wettest period of the record and coincides with the Little Ice Age. We also find evidence for 3 warm periods between 1350 and 650 cal yr BP which are identified in the record by the presence of Pediastrum boryanum var. boryanum. The latter two of these periods, dating from 1070-900 and 700–650 cal yr BP correspond to Medieval Climatic Anomaly droughts identified in other records. In addition to these events, we identify a multi-centennial scale drought between 2700 and 2000 cal yr BP in Zaca Lake, corroborating evidence from across the Great Basin and extending the regional spread of this multi-centennial drought to southern California. Corresponding wetter conditions in the northwest indicate that the modern ENSO precipitation dipole also occurred during this persistent drought. Today this dipole is associated with La Nina conditions and we note a coincidence with intriguing evidence for a change in ENSO dynamics from marine records in the tropical Pacific. This dry period is remarkably persistent and has important implications for understanding the possible durations of drought conditions in the past in California.