Matthew E. Oster

Temporal trends in survival among infants with critical congenital heart defects.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the trends in survival for infants with critical congenital heart defects (CCHDs) and to examine the potential impact of timing of diagnosis and other prognostic factors on survival. METHODS: We performed a retrospective population-based cohort study in infants born with structural congenital heart defects (CHDs) between 1979 and 2005 and ascertained by the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program. We estimated Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities for 12 CCHD phenotypes by birth era and timing of diagnosis among infants without noncardiac defects or chromosomal disorders and used stratified Cox proportional hazards models to assess potential prognostic factors. RESULTS: Of 1 056 541 births, there were 6965 infants with CHDs (1830 with CCHDs). One-year survival was 75.2% for those with CCHDs (n = 1336) vs 97.1% for those with noncritical CHDs (n = 3530; P < .001). One-year survival for infants with CCHDs improved from 67.4% for the 1979–1993 birth era to 82.5% for the 1994–2005 era (P < .001). One-year survival was 71.7% for infants with CCHDs diagnosed at ≤1 day of age (n = 890) vs 82.5% for those with CCHDs diagnosed at >1 day of age (n = 405; P < .001). There was a significantly higher risk of 1-year mortality for infants with an earlier birth era, earlier diagnosis, and low birth weight and whose mothers were <30 years old. CONCLUSIONS: One-year survival for infants with CCHDs has been improving over time, yet mortality remains high. Later diagnosis is associated with improved 1-year survival. These benchmark data and identified prognostic factors may aid future evaluations of the impact of pulse oximetry screening on survival from CCHDs.

Congenital Heart Defects in the United States Estimating the Magnitude of the Affected Population in 2010

Background: Because of advancements in care, there has been a decline in mortality from congenital heart defects (CHDs) over the past several decades. However, there are no current empirical data documenting the number of people living with CHDs in the United States. Our aim was to estimate the CHD prevalence across all age groups in the United States in the year 2010. Methods: The age-, sex-, and severity-specific observed prevalence of CHDs in Québec, Canada, in the year 2010 was assumed to equal the CHD prevalence in the non-Hispanic white population in the United States in 2010. A race-ethnicity adjustment factor, reflecting differential survival between racial-ethnic groups through 5 years of age for individuals with a CHD and that in the general US population, was applied to the estimated non-Hispanic white rates to derive CHD prevalence estimates among US non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics. Confidence intervals for the estimated CHD prevalence rates and case counts were derived from a combination of Taylor series approximations and Monte Carlo simulation. Results: We estimated that ≈2.4 million people (1.4 million adults, 1 million children) were living with CHDs in the United States in 2010. Nearly 300 000 of these individuals had severe CHDs. Conclusions: Our estimates highlight the need for 2 important efforts: planning for health services delivery to meet the needs of the growing population of adults with CHD and the development of surveillance data across the life span to provide empirical estimates of the prevalence of CHD across all age groups in the United States.Background: Because of advancements in care, there has been a decline in mortality from congenital heart defects (CHDs) over the past several decades. However, there are no current empirical data documenting the number of people living with CHDs in the United States. Our aim was to estimate the CHD prevalence across all age groups in the United States in the year 2010. Methods: The age-, sex-, and severity-specific observed prevalence of CHDs in Quebec, Canada, in the year 2010 was assumed to equal the CHD prevalence in the non-Hispanic white population in the United States in 2010. A race-ethnicity adjustment factor, reflecting differential survival between racial-ethnic groups through 5 years of age for individuals with a CHD and that in the general US population, was applied to the estimated non-Hispanic white rates to derive CHD prevalence estimates among US non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics. Confidence intervals for the estimated CHD prevalence rates and case counts were derived from a combination of Taylor series approximations and Monte Carlo simulation. Results: We estimated that ≈2.4 million people (1.4 million adults, 1 million children) were living with CHDs in the United States in 2010. Nearly 300 000 of these individuals had severe CHDs. Conclusions: Our estimates highlight the need for 2 important efforts: planning for health services delivery to meet the needs of the growing population of adults with CHD and the development of surveillance data across the life span to provide empirical estimates of the prevalence of CHD across all age groups in the United States. # Clinical Perspective {#article-title-32}

Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Screening for Critical Congenital Heart Disease in US Newborns

OBJECTIVES: Clinical evidence indicates newborn critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) screening through pulse oximetry is lifesaving. In 2011, CCHD was added to the US Recommended Uniform Screening Panel for newborns. Several states have implemented or are considering screening mandates. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of routine screening among US newborns unsuspected of having CCHD. METHODS: We developed a cohort model with a time horizon of infancy to estimate the inpatient medical costs and health benefits of CCHD screening. Model inputs were derived from new estimates of hospital screening costs and inpatient care for infants with late-detected CCHD, defined as no diagnosis at the birth hospital. We estimated the number of newborns with CCHD detected at birth hospitals and life-years saved with routine screening compared with no screening. RESULTS: Screening was estimated to incur an additional cost of

Late Detection of Critical Congenital Heart Disease Among US Infants: Estimation of the Potential Impact of Proposed Universal Screening Using Pulse Oximetry

6.28 per newborn, with incremental costs of

Racial and ethnic disparities in post-operative mortality following congenital heart surgery.

20 862 per newborn with CCHD detected at birth hospitals and

Estimated Number of Infants Detected and Missed by Critical Congenital Heart Defect Screening

40 385 per life-year gained (2011 US dollars). We estimated 1189 more newborns with CCHD would be identified at birth hospitals and 20 infant deaths averted annually with screening. Another 1975 false-positive results not associated with CCHD were estimated to occur, although these results had a minimal impact on total estimated costs. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first US cost-effectiveness analysis of CCHD screening in the United States could be reasonably cost-effective. We anticipate data from states that have recently approved or initiated CCHD screening will become available over the next few years to refine these projections.

Public Health Science Agenda for Congenital Heart Defects: Report From a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Experts Meeting

IMPORTANCE Critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) was added to the Recommended Uniform Screening Panel for Newborns in the United States in 2011. Many states have recently adopted or are considering requirements for universal CCHD screening through pulse oximetry in birth hospitals. Limited previous research is directly applicable to the question of how many US infants with CCHD might be identified through screening. OBJECTIVES To estimate the proportion of US infants with late detection of CCHD (>3 days after birth) based on existing clinical practice and to investigate factors associated with late detection. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Descriptive and multivariable analysis. Data were obtained from a multisite population-based study of birth defects in the United States, the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). We included all live-born infants with estimated dates of delivery from January 1, 1998, through December 31, 2007, and nonsyndromic, clinically verified CCHD conditions potentially detectable through screening via pulse oximetry. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The main outcome measure was the proportion of infants with late detection of CCHD through echocardiography or at autopsy under the assumption that universal screening at birth hospitals might reduce the number of such late diagnoses. Secondary outcome measures included prevalence ratios for associations between selected demographic and clinical factors and late detection of CCHD. RESULTS Of 3746 live-born infants with nonsyndromic CCHD, late detection occurred in 1106 (29.5% [95% CI, 28.1%-31.0%]), including 6 (0.2%) (0.1%-0.4%) first receiving a diagnosis at autopsy more than 3 days after birth. Late detection varied by CCHD type from 9 of 120 infants (7.5% [95% CI, 3.5%-13.8%]) with pulmonary atresia to 497 of 801 (62.0% [58.7%-65.4%]) with coarctation of the aorta. In multivariable analysis, late detection varied significantly by CCHD type and study site, and infants with extracardiac defects were significantly less likely to have late detection of CCHD (adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.49-0.69]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE We estimate that 29.5% of live-born infants with nonsyndromic CCHD in the NBDPS received a diagnosis more than 3 days after birth and therefore might have benefited from routine CCHD screening at birth hospitals. The number of infants in whom CCHD was detected through screening likely varies by several factors, including CCHD type. Additional population-based studies of screening in practice are needed.

Intervention for Recoarctation in the Single Ventricle Reconstruction Trial Incidence, Risk, and Outcomes

OBJECTIVES This study assessed racial/ethnic disparities in post-operative mortality after surgery for congenital heart disease (CHD) and explored whether disparities persist after adjusting for access to care. STUDY DESIGN We used the Pediatric Health Information System database to perform a retrospective cohort study of 44,017 patients with 49,833 CHD surgery encounters in 2004-2008 at 41 childrens hospitals. We used χ(2) analysis to compare unadjusted mortality rates by race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, Hispanic) and constructed Poisson regression models to determine adjusted mortality risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS In-hospital post-operative mortality rate was 3.4%; non-Hispanic whites had the lowest mortality rate (2.8%), followed by non-Hispanic blacks (3.6%) and Hispanics (3.9%) (P < .0001). After adjusting for age, sex, genetic syndrome, and surgery risk category, the RR of death was 1.32 for non-Hispanic blacks (CI, 1.14-1.52) and 1.21 for Hispanics (CI, 1.07-1.37), both compared with non-Hispanic whites. After adjusting for access to care (insurance type and hospital of surgery), these estimates did not appreciably change (non-Hispanic blacks: RR, 1.27; CI, 1.09-1.47; Hispanics: RR, 1.22; CI, 1.05-1.41). CONCLUSIONS There are notable racial/ethnic disparities in post-operative mortality after CHD surgery that do not appear to be explained by differences in access to care.

A population-based study of the association of prenatal diagnosis with survival rate for infants with congenital heart defects.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In 2011, the US Secretary of Health and Human Services recommended universal screening of newborns for critical congenital heart defects (CCHDs), yet few estimates of the number of infants with CCHDs likely to be detected through universal screening exist. Our objective was to estimate the number of infants with nonsyndromic CCHDs in the United States likely to be detected (true positives) and missed (false negatives) through universal newborn CCHD screening. METHODS: We developed a simulation model based on estimates of birth prevalence, prenatal diagnosis, late detection, and sensitivity of newborn CCHD screening through pulse oximetry to estimate the number of true-positive and false-negative nonsyndromic cases of the 7 primary and 5 secondary CCHD screening targets identified through screening. RESULTS: We estimated that 875 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 705–1060) US infants with nonsyndromic CCHDs, including 470 (95% UI: 360–585) infants with primary CCHD screening targets, will be detected annually through newborn CCHD screening. An additional 880 (UI: 700–1080) false-negative screenings, including 280 (95% UI: 195–385) among primary screening targets, are expected. We estimated that similar numbers of CCHDs would be detected under scenarios comparing “lower” (∼19%) and “higher” (∼41%) than current prenatal detection prevalences. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial number of nonsyndromic CCHD cases are likely to be detected through universal CCHD screening; however, an equal number of false-negative screenings, primarily among secondary targets of screening, are likely to occur. Future efforts should document the true impact of CCHD screening in practice.

An update on cardiovascular malformations in congenital rubella syndrome

Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most common type of birth defect, affecting ≈1% of births per year.[1][1] Although survival has been improving over time, there remain numerous gaps in the understanding of the public health impact of CHDs across the lifespan. Recognizing that there was “a