Matthew Fulakeza

Dynamic Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Predictions over Brazil

Abstract Climate projections for March–April–May (MAM) 1985 and 1997 made with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM over South America on a 4° latitude by 5° longitude grid are “downscaled” to 0.5° grid spacing. This is accomplished by interpolating the GCM simulation product in time and space to create lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for synchronous nested simulations by the regional climate model (RCM) of the GISS/Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research. Both the GCM and the RCM simulations use sea surface temperature (SST) predictions based on persisted February SST anomalies. Each downscaled prediction is evaluated from an ensemble of five simulations and each is compared to a control ensemble of five RCM simulations driven by synchronous NCEP reanalysis data. An additional five-run control ensemble for MAM 1997 tests the impact of “perfect” SST predictions on the RCM forecast. Results are compared to observational evidence that includes NCEP reanalysis data, Clim...

Regional model simulations of African wave disturbances

A regional climate simulation model is run at 50 km horizontal resolution over West Africa to study synoptic systems, such as African wave disturbances (AWDs). The study examines the results of 18 simulations, the longest of them covering the period August 8-15, 1988. Simulations were initialized with European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) gridded analysis data which also supply the lateral boundary conditions. Daily means of 700 mbar circulation and other model diagnostics are compared with ECMWF and National Centers for Environmental Prediction analyses to assess the skill of the model in simulating the evolution of synoptic systems. Trajectories of AWDs are tracked on time-longitude cross sections of 700 mbar vorticity, lower tropospheric divergence and precipitation rates. Cloud clusters on satellite imagery relate rather well to synoptic features on observational analyses as well as to spatial patterns of rain gage measurements but not consistently to simulated precipitation. Movement of major AWDs and the generation of new waves are handled realistically by the model. Model dynamics and physics appear to be more important than lateral boundary conditions in determining the course of simulations.

The Sensitivity of WRF Daily Summertime Simulations over West Africa to Alternative Parameterizations. Part 1: African Wave Circulation

AbstractThe performance of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a West African regional-atmospheric model is evaluated. The study tests the sensitivity of WRF-simulated vorticity maxima associated with African easterly waves to 64 combinations of alternative parameterizations in a series of simulations in September. In all, 104 simulations of 12-day duration during 11 consecutive years are examined. The 64 combinations combine WRF parameterizations of cumulus convection, radiation transfer, surface hydrology, and PBL physics. Simulated daily and mean circulation results are validated against NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2. Precipitation is considered in a second part of this two-part paper. A wide range of 700-hPa vorticity validation scores demonstrates the influence of alternative parameterizations. The best WRF performers achieve correlations against reanalysis of 0.40–0.60 and realisti...

The Sensitivity of WRF Daily Summertime Simulations over West Africa to Alternative Parameterizations. Part II: Precipitation

This paper evaluates the performance of the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional-atmospheric model over West Africa. It tests WRF sensitivity to 64 configurations of alternative parameterizations in a series of 104 twelve-day September simulations during eleven consecutive years, 2000-2010. The 64 configurations combine WRF parameterizations of cumulus convection, radiation, surface-hydrology, and PBL. Simulated daily and total precipitation results are validated against Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. Particular attention is given to westward-propagating precipitation maxima associated with African Easterly Waves (AEWs). A wide range of daily precipitation validation scores demonstrates the influence of alternative parameterizations. The best WRF performers achieve time-longitude correlations (against GPCP) of between 0.35-0.42 and spatiotemporal variability amplitudes only slightly higher than observed estimates. A parallel simulation by the benchmark Regional Model-v.3 achieves a higher correlation (0.52) and realistic spatiotemporal variability amplitudes. The largest favorable impact on WRF precipitation validation is achieved by selecting the Grell-Devenyi convection scheme, resulting in higher correlations against observations than using the Kain-Fritch convection scheme. Other parameterizations have less obvious impact. Validation statistics for optimized WRF configurations simulating the parallel period during 2000-2010 are more favorable for 2005, 2006, and 2008 than for other years. The selection of some of the same WRF configurations as high scorers in both circulation and precipitation validations supports the notion that simulations of West African daily precipitation benefit from skillful simulations of associated AEW vorticity centers and that simulations of AEWs would benefit from skillful simulations of convective precipitation.

Propagation of Convective Complexes Observed by TRMM in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic

Precipitation maxima during the West African summer monsoon propagate generally westward in tandem with African easterly waves. A heretofore unreported, repeating pattern of northward drift of precipitation maxima is detected on Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM satellite) time-latitude distributions of daily accumulations over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Corresponding 3-hourly TRMM accumulations show that the northward drifting envelopes of precipitation during August 2006 are often comprised of individual swaths propagating towards the southwest, presumably as mesoscale squall lines. The implied northward drift on the time-latitude distribution is a component of a resultant northwestward movement. The study examines the entire available record of TRMM precipitation observations, 1998-2010, to summarize TRMM maxima propagation over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Meridional displacements of precipitation maxima are most prevalent in June-September 2006, occurring less frequently during other summers. An investigation of geopotential and circulation fields, limited to two case studies, suggests mechanisms to explain some of the observed propagation of TRMM maxima. In one event, northward drift of the precipitation envelope is consistent with the corresponding displacement of the intertropical convergence zone trough, although the southwest propagation of individual mesoscale convection maxima does not correspond to any synoptic feature on reanalysis circulation or reanalysis downscaled by a regional model. One speculation is that southwestward propagation of precipitation maxima could be caused by regeneration of convection at outflow boundaries of mature thunderstorms.

Regional Climate Model Applications for West Africa and the Tropical Eastern Atlantic

The chapter reviews applications of a regional climate model for studies of climate variability over West Africa and the adjacent eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Fig. 1a shows the region and identifies some of the geographic features mentioned in the chapter. The savannah region south of the Sahara Desert, known as the Sahel (situated between 10-15°N), is of particular interest to climate scientists because of its vulnerability to recurring drought. The West African monsoon (WAM) is characterized by the advance of precipitation northward to the Sahel region during late June or early July (onset) and its southward retreat during September. Below normal Sahel rainfall during some summers is associated with an abbreviated northward advance of this rain belt (Hastenrath and Polzin, 2010). A shortfall in seasonal rainfall has an especially severe negative impact on the pastoral and agricultural economies of the region, causing famine and widespread social upheaval in worst case scenarios. The socio-economic repercussions of drought or even floods lend importance to the ultimate goals of climate model research relevant to this area: improving seasonal forecasts, predicting monsoon onset dates, determining the role of sea-surface temperature anomalies and land surface characteristics on the variability of the developing monsoon and creating reliable projections of the future Sahel climate under a range of greenhouse warming scenarios. Early warning of imminent drought, for example, can allow mitigation strategies to blunt some of the negative impacts. In addition, research is also devoted to better understanding African easterly wave disturbances (AEWs). AEWs enter the tropical Atlantic from West Africa during the summer and can develop into tropical cyclones, and occasionally into hurricanes.