Matthew G. Richards

On-Orbit Servicing: A New Value Proposition for Satellite Design and Operation

The use of humans to service satellites designed for servicing has been adequately demonstrated on the Hubble Space Telescope and International Space Station. Currently, robotic on-orbit servicing technology is maturing with risk reduction programs such asOrbital Express. Robotic servicing appears to be technically feasible and provides a set of capabilities which range from satellite inspection to physical upgrade of components. However, given the current design and operation paradigms of satellite architectures, it appears that on-orbit servicing will not be heavily used, and, as a result, is not likely to be economically viable. To achieve the vision of on-orbit servicing, the development of a newvalue proposition for satellite architectures is necessary. This new value proposition is oriented around rapid response to technological or market change and design of satellites with less redundancy.

A Framework for Incorporating "ilities" in Tradespace Studies

Non-traditional design criteria such as flexibility, robustness, survivability and others (collectively referred to as the “ilities”) are increasingly recognized as critical system properties for the success of aerospace programs. While most decision makers would agree that the ilities are important system properties, they are neither well-defined nor easily evaluated in isolation. While some evaluation methodologies do exist (e.g., real options for flexibility), there is a need for a holistic framework for describing systems with these properties. This paper will explore the use of these “ilities” properties as selection criteria in tradespace studies. A framework is described that can be used to incorporate ilities into conceptual design and tradespace studies in a systematic way. The framework is based on describing ilities in terms of changes in three dimensions: changes in the context, changes in the needs, and changes in the systems itself. The ilities are then interpreted as methods of navigating changes in this space. Quantitative analysis can be accomplished through Epoch/Era Analysis linking multiple discrete tradespace studies into a coherent timeline. An extended example is presented to demonstrate an analysis and visualization of the survivability of a space tug system to LEO orbital debris over a ten year lifetime. The results indicate that passive shielding for satellites in LEO provides only marginal benefit, at best, given the debris distribution. The smaller satellite designs in the tradespace display an unfavorable tradeoff of cost versus survivability. The example case study is a simple application of the framework, and points out the potential challenges of displaying multidimensional, non-aggregate data in “ilities” dynamic tradespace studies. The framework and case study suggest that using Epoch/Era Analysis, “ilities” will emerge as properties describing how systems change across epochs, and can be prescribed as visual and quantitative strategies that can be traded in terms of benefit and cost over time.

Responsive Systems Comparison Method: Case Study in Assessing Future Designs in the Presence of Change

In this short paper, the Responsive Systems Comparison (RSC) method is introduced. RSC is a structured method for collecting information and conducting analysis to characterize a wide variety of possible futures in order to enable the comparison of the performance of proposed systems in those futures. A case study uses the RSC to analyze a satellite radar system. The needs and expectations of a user community for such a system, the context it will operate in, and its technical basis are determined both at the present time, and with possible changes over the next 15 years. This information is used to set up an analysis that should be able to highlight systems that will deliver value under a wide variety of future situations. The case study illustrates the practicality of the method, and provides lessons for improvement and implementation.

Scenario planning in dynamic multi-attribute tradespace exploration

The long time scales associated with complex system design and operation necessitate front-end systems engineering methodologies that enable consideration of alternative futures. This paper advances scenario planning techniques through a parameterization and ordering of potential future contexts and stakeholder expectations (e.g., articulated system attributes, available technology, funding levels, and supporting infrastructures). After surveying existing approaches for scenario planning, a methodology for specifying and analyzing large numbers of alternative system timelines is presented. A satellite radar case study is used to motivate and illustrate the value of this approach. Benefits of the methodology include: (1) broader and more rigorous consideration of alternative future needs, contexts, and timelines, (2) identification of gaps in traditionally-derived scenario sets, (3) identification of passively value-robust system alternatives, and (4) providing a basis for evaluating system evolution strategies that enable sustainment of value delivery across potential timelines.

What the hare can teach the tortoise about make‐buy strategies for radical innovations

Purpose of this paper – The purpose of this investigation is to help establish: whether or not strong relationships between suppliers and customers improve performance; and if prescriptive frameworks on outsourcing radical innovations are dependent on industry clockspeed. Design/methodology/approach – A survey of UK-based manufacturers, followed by a statistical analysis. Findings – Long-term supplier links seem not to play a role in the development of radical innovations. Moreover, industry clockspeed has no significant bearing on the success or failure of any outsourcing strategy for radically new technologies. Research limitations/implications – Literature about outsourcing in the face of radical innovation can be more confidently applied to industries of all clockspeeds. Practical implications – Prescriptions for fast clockspeed industries should be applied more broadly: all industries should maintain a high degree of vertical integration in the early days of a radical innovation. Originality/value – Prior papers had explored whether or not a company should outsource radical innovations, but none had determined if this is equally true for slow industries and fast ones. Therein lies the original contribution of this paper.

Design Principles for Survivable System Architecture

A key challenge confronting system architects is the specification, development, procurement, operation, and maintenance of systems with critical survivability requirements. To address this challenge, a generic framework for analyzing system interactions with natural and synthetic hostile environments is introduced and twelve design principles are proposed for the achievement of survivable system architecture.

System of Systems Architecture: The Case of Space Situational Awareness

The presence of space situational awareness is one approach to mitigating the long-term risks associated with space debris in low Earth orbit (LEO). As the U.S. and other nations continue to develop the space situational awareness mission area, questions arise as to how stakeholders should act to mitigate the effects of resident space objects and how our understanding of the physics of LEO inform the evolution of groundand space-based sensors. To characterize interactions among international stakeholders, space situational awareness is modeled as a system of systems with technical and social elements. Through the use of game-theoretic cooperation archetypes and System Dynamics modeling, possible futures are explored. Extensions in space situational awareness capabilities are modeled as mechanisms to improve satellite survivability. Finally, general implications for system architecture and systems of systems are elucidated.

Empirical Validation of Design Principles for Survivable System Architecture

Survivability, the ability of a system to minimize the impact of a finite-duration disturbance on end-user value delivery, is increasingly recognized beyond military contexts as an enabler of maintaining system performance in operational environments characterized by dynamic disturbances. Seventeen general design principles are proposed to inform concept generation of survivable system architectures. Six of these design principles focus on a survivability strategy of susceptibility reduction: (1.1) prevention, (1.2) mobility, (1.3) concealment, (1.4) deterrence, (1.5) preemption, and (1.6) avoidance. Eleven of the principles focus on vulnerability reduction: (2.1) hardness, (2.2) redundancy, (2.3) margin, (2.4) heterogeneity, (2.5) distribution, (2.6) failure mode reduction, (2.7) fail-safe, (2.8) evolution, (2.9) containment, (2.10) replacement, and (2.11) repair. In this paper, the completeness, taxonomic precision, and domain-specific applicability of the design principle framework is empirically tested through case applications to survivability features of the F-16C combat aircraft and Iridium satellite system. Integrating results of these two tests with previous tests (e.g., UH-60A Blackhawk helicopter, A-10A aircraft), the validity of the design principle framework for aerospace systems is demonstrated.

Assessing the challenges to a geosynchronous space tug system

A space tug vehicle is designed to rendezvous and dock with a space object; make an assessment of its current position, orientation, and operational status; and then either stabilize the object in its current orbit or move the object to a new location with subsequent release. A subset of on-orbit servicing, space tug missions in the geosynchronous belt include stationkeeping of satellites which have lost attitude control and repositioning of satellites. Repositioning of spacecraft may be desirable as a means to rescue satellites launched into incorrect orbits, for the retirement of satellites into “graveyard” orbits, and for on-demand maneuvers that support flexible mission requirements. This paper aims to unify the political, legal, operational, and financial aspects of the space tug concept and highlight the challenges that stand in the way of an operational space tug vehicle. U.S. Space Transportation Policy is reviewed, and a space tug operation is recognized as an enabler of emerging national space transportation requirements. Customary international and United States laws are explored as potential constraining forces on future tug missions. A concept of operations in geosynchronous orbit, including parking orbit selection and approach strategies, is analyzed with emphasis placed on safety and reliability. Potential financing models and the issue of insurance for space tugs are discussed and identified as the principal challenges facing implementation of a space tug system. This paper offers a positive forecast for the future of on-orbit servicing and endorses continued government support for proof-of-concept missions.

Implications of DoD Acquisition Policy for Innovation: The Case of Operationally Responsive Space

This paper uses an innovation theory lens to assess the potential for operationally responsive space to increase the ability of government space acquisition to meet the emerging needs of Joint Combatant Commanders. Two core challenges of generating innovation in national security space are identified: 1) enabling bottom-up initiative in a monopsony market structure; and 2) fostering an entrepreneurial environment for both component and system level concept development within an increasingly risk-averse system. The current military acquisition system addresses these challenges through a two-tiered process which separates technology development from project-based acquisition. However, this method of separation is not a complete solution as: 1) it fails to value the importance of architectural innovation; 2) it creates a disaggregated knowledge base which exacerbates the difficulty of top-down specification and bottom-up integration; and 3) fails to generate an entrepreneurial supply-side spirit. The operationally responsive space paradigm has the potential to resolve parts of this issue by generating a more dynamic acquisition environment; however, it remains to be seen whether the required significant philosophical change can be achieved in practice.