Matthew G. Slocum

INFLUENCE OF THE EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON FIRE REGIMES IN THE FLORIDA EVERGLADES

Disturbances that are strongly linked to global climatic cycles may occur in a regular, predictable manner that affects composition and distribution of ecological com- munities. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences worldwide precipitation patterns and has occurred with regular periodicity over the last 130 000 years. We hypoth- esized that ENSO, through effects on local weather conditions, has influenced frequency and extent of fires within Everglades National Park (Florida, USA). Using data from 1948 to 1999, we found that the La Nina phase of ENSO was associated with decreased dry- season rainfall, lowered surface water levels, increased lightning strikes, more fires, and larger areas burned. In contrast, the El Nino phase was associated with increased dry-season rainfall, raised surface water levels, decreased lightning strikes, fewer fires, and smaller areas burned. Shifts between ENSO phases every few years have likely influenced vegetation through periodic large-scale fires, resulting in a prevalence of fire-influenced communities in the Everglades landscape.

Effects of sediment slurry enrichment on salt marsh rehabilitation: Plant and soil responses over seven years

In deltaic marshes, mineral sediment promotes positive elevation change and counters subsidence and sea level rise. In many such marshes sediment deficits result in wetland loss. One new way to address sediment deficiency is to supply marshes with sediments in a slurry that deposits the sediment in a thin layer over a large area. The long-term effects of this strategy are poorly understood. In a rapidly submerging,Spartina alterniflora salt marsh, we tested how different amounts of sediment ameliorated the effects of sea level rise and subsidence over 7 yr (1992–1998). Sediment slurry enrichment likely affected plants and soils by two mechanisms. It increased elevation and soil bulk density, leading to increased plant vigor and soil condition. These effects were long lasting, such that by 1998 areas receiving moderate amounts of sediment (5–12 cm relative elevation) had better plant vigor and soil condition compared to areas not receiving sediment (55% cover versus 20%; bulk densities of 0.4–1.0 g cm−3 versus 0.2 g cm−3; 0 mM hydrogen sulfide versus > 1.0 mM). The sediment slurry also had high nutrient content, which resulted in a pulse of growth, especially in areas receiving the most sediment (areas > 12 cm relative elevation initially had >90% cover and canopy heights >1.6 m). This nutrient-induced growth spurt was short lived and faded after 3 yr, at which point the long lasting effects of increased elevation probably became the dominant factor promoting plant vigor and soil condition. Moderate levels of sediment generated the most beneficial and long lasting effects to the vegetation and soils. This degree of sediment slurry addition countered the effects of subsidence and sea level rise, but not so much as to surpass the intertidal position to whichS. alterniflora is best adapted.

Decoupling Natural and Anthropogenic Fire Regimes: a Case Study in Everglades National Park, Florida

Abstract Anthropogenic fire regimes obscure natural fire regimes, reducing the ability to manage fire-frequented habitats ecologically. To address this problem, we attempted to decouple natural and anthropogenic fire regimes by comparing them to seasonal climatic patterns and landscape characteristics in Everglades National Park (1948–1999). Of the total area burned by lightning fires, 57% resulted from ignitions seven days within onset of the wet season, 11% from ignitions starting 7–21 days before onset, and 36% from ignitions > 7 days after onset. In contrast, of the total area burned by incendiary fires, 89% resulted from ignitions > 7 days before onset, and 40% resulted from ignitions > 35 days before onset. Moreover, ~100% of the total area burned by prescribed fires resulted from ignitions > 7 days after onset. Lightning fires occurred most frequently in wet seasonal savanna that had limited accessibility to humans; incendiary fires were most frequent in wet seasonal savanna that had ready accessibility to humans. In addition, 35% of the total area burned by incendiary fires in areas of limited accessibility occurred when incendiary fires spread from readily accessible areas. We propose that, because incendiary fires occurred at the end of the dry season, they burned drier fuels and burned more intensely than lightning fires, which generally occurred following the first rains of the wet season. Incendiary fires thus should be more likely to burn lower elevation areas that normally hinder fire spread. Finally, by occurring later in the wet season, prescribed fires may have burned patchily and insufficiently intensely to achieve restoration goals. Decoupling anthropogenic and natural fire regimes using seasonal climate patterns and landscape characteristics leads us to propose strategies to guide fire management in the park.

Effect of Climate on Wildfire Size: A Cross-Scale Analysis

Theory predicts that wildfires will encounter spatial thresholds where different drivers may become the dominant influence on continued fire spread. Studying these thresholds, however, is limited by a lack of sufficiently detailed data sets. To address this problem, we searched for scale thresholds in data describing wildfire size at the Avon Park Air Force Range, south-central Florida. We used power-law statistics to describe the “heavy-tail” of the fire size distribution, and quantile regression to determine how the edges of data distributions of fire size were related to climate. Power-law statistics revealed a heavy-tail, a pattern consistent with scale threshold theory, which predicts that large fires will be rare because only fires that cross all thresholds will become large. Results from quantile regression suggested that different climate conditions served as critical thresholds, influencing wildfire size at different spatial scales. Modeling at higher quantiles (≥75th) implicated drought as driving the spread of larger fires, whereas modeling at lower quantiles (≤25th) implicated that wind governed the spread of smaller fires. Fires of intermediate size were negatively associated with relative humidity. Our results are consistent with the idea that fire spread involves scale thresholds, with the small-scale drivers allowing fires to spread after ignition, but with further spread only being possible when large-scale drivers are favorable. These results suggest that other data sets that have heavy-tailed distributions may contain patterns generated by scale thresholds, and that these patterns may be revealed using quantile regression.

Accurate Quantification of Seasonal Rainfall and Associated Climate–Wildfire Relationships

Abstract Wildfires are often governed by rapid changes in seasonal rainfall. Therefore, measuring seasonal rainfall on a temporally finescale should facilitate the prediction of wildfire regimes. To explore this hypothesis, daily rainfall data over a 58-yr period (1950–2007) in south-central Florida were transformed into cumulative rainfall anomalies (CRAs). This transformation allowed precise estimation of onset dates and durations of the dry and wet seasons, as well as a number of other variables characterizing seasonal rainfall. These variables were compared with parameters that describe ENSO and a wildfire regime in the region (at the Avon Park Air Force Range). Onset dates and durations were found to be highly variable among years, with standard deviations ranging from 27 to 41 days. Rainfall during the two seasons was distinctive, with the dry season having half as much as the wet season despite being nearly 2 times as long. The precise quantification of seasonal rainfall led to strong statistical m...

Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of natural lightning ignitions should be useful as a basis for ecological fire management of humid savanna-grassland landscapes worldwide.

Fuels and fires influence vegetation via above‐ and belowground pathways in a high‐diversity plant community

Summary Fire strongly influences plant populations and communities around the world, making it an important agent of plant evolution. Fire influences vegetation through multiple pathways, both above- and belowground. Few studies have yet attempted to tie these pathways together in a mechanistic way through soil heating even though the importance of soil heating for plants in fire-prone ecosystems is increasingly recognized. Here we combine an experimental approach with structural equation modelling (SEM) to simultaneously examine multiple pathways through which fire might influence herbaceous vegetation. In a high-diversity longleaf pine groundcover community in Louisiana, USA, we manipulated fine-fuel biomass and monitored the resulting fires with high-resolution thermocouples placed in vertical profile above- and belowground. We predicted that vegetation response to burning would be inversely related to fuel load owing to relationships among fuels, fire temperature, duration and soil heating. We found that fuel manipulations altered fire properties and vegetation responses, of which soil heating proved to be a highly accurate predictor. Fire duration acting through soil heating was important for vegetation response in our SEMs, whereas fire temperature was not. Our results indicate that in this herbaceous plant community, fire duration is a good predictor of soil heating and therefore of vegetation response to fire. Soil heating may be the key determinant of vegetation response to fire in ecosystems wherein plants persist by resprouting or reseeding from soil-stored propagules. Synthesis. Our SEMs demonstrate how the complex pathways through which fires influence plant community structure and dynamics can be examined simultaneously. Comparative studies of these pathways across different communities will provide important insights into the ecology, evolution and conservation of fire-prone ecosystems.

A Structural Equation Model Analysis of Relationships among ENSO, Seasonal Descriptors and Wildfires

Seasonality drives ecological processes through networks of forcings, and the resultant complexity requires creative approaches for modeling to be successful. Recently ecologists and climatologists have developed sophisticated methods for fully describing seasons. However, to date the relationships among the variables produced by these methods have not been analyzed as networks, but rather with simple univariate statistics. In this manuscript we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to analyze a proposed causal network describing seasonality of rainfall for a site in south-central Florida. We also described how this network was influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and how the network in turn affected the site’s wildfire regime. Our models indicated that wet and dry seasons starting later in the year (or ending earlier) were shorter and had less rainfall. El Niño conditions increased dry season rainfall, and via this effect decreased the consistency of that season’s drying trend. El Niño conditions also negatively influenced how consistent the moistening trend was during the wet season, but in this case the effect was direct and did not route through rainfall. In modeling wildfires, our models showed that area burned was indirectly influenced by ENSO via its effect on dry season rainfall. Area burned was also indirectly reduced when the wet season had consistent rainfall, as such wet seasons allowed fewer wildfires in subsequent fire seasons. Overall area burned at the study site was estimated with high accuracy (R 2 score = 0.63). In summary, we found that by using SEMs, we were able to clearly describe causal patterns involving seasonal climate, ENSO and wildfire. We propose that similar approaches could be effectively applied to other sites where seasonality exerts strong and complex forcings on ecological processes.