Matthew Hoddie

Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables

In the wake of negotiated settlements to civil wars, one critical problem involves reassuring people who have been killing one another that conflict is not about to break out again, endangering peoples lives. Those concerned with the success of negotiated settlements have debated how best to enhance the prospects of a stable peace. We address this question by exploring variables that may explain the longevity of negotiated peace settlements. These variables are divided into two categories—one tapping into the potential effects of the environment in which settlements are negotiated and another focusing on the impact of settlement arrangements. On the basis of our analysis of thirty-eight civil war settlements negotiated between 1945 and 1998 we identify the environmental factors and institutional choices that affect the short-term stability of the peace following civil war.

Economic Liberalization via IMF Structural Adjustment: Sowing the Seeds of Civil War?

Previous studies that have explored the effects of economic liberalization on civil war have employed aggregate measures of openness and have failed to account for potential endogeneity bias. In this research note, we suggest two improvements to the study of the relationship between liberalization and civil war. First, emphasizing that it is processes that systematically create new economic winners and losers rather than particular levels of economic openness that have the potential to generate conflict, we consider the effects of one oft-used means of liberalizing economies: the adoption by countries of International Monetary Fund (IMF) structural adjustment programs. Second, we use a bivariate probit model to address issues of endogeneity bias. Analyzing all data available for the period between 1970 and 1999, we identify an association between the adoption of IMF programs and the onset of civil war. This finding suggests that IMF programs to promote economic openness unintentionally may be creating an environment conducive to domestic conflict.

The Art of the Possible: Power Sharing and Post–Civil War Democracy

This article focuses on the role that power-sharing arrangements play in making it possible for some countries to make the transition to democracy successfully after civil war. The authors hypothesize that the adoption of multiple forms of power sharing, measures constructed to end particularly difficult civil wars, facilitate the emergence of a minimalist form of democracy following some intrastate conflicts by helping to assuage warring groups’ security concerns. The authors use a bivariate probit model to account for the possibility that the decisions by wartime rivals to engage in power sharing and whether to adopt democracy or not are interrelated. Employing panel data for all civils wars concluded between 1945 and the end of 2006, they find support for their hypothesis.

From vice to virtue: changing portrayals of minorities in China's official media

This study considers the official medias portrayal of minority groups in the Peoples Republic of China. Based on a content analysis of minority-centered articles appearing in the Peoples Daily newspaper between the years 1950 and 2001, it is found that minorities are most frequently depicted as representatives of primitive cultures. How the government presents this image of primitive minorities, however, has been subject to significant refinement over the years. The government has stepped away from its earlier practice of characterizing ‘primitive’ minority cultures as pathologies detrimental to the political and economic development of the state in favor of a more recent emphasis on the virtues associated with minority lives. The authors suggest that this transformation in government rhetoric is attributable to changes in both Chinese politics and society.

Tibet and the Segment-state Hypothesis

Abstract This study examines the claim that the existence of segment states within a country enhances the likelihood of nation-state crises through an examination of the case of Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) within the Peoples Republic of China. The central argument I present is that the frequent nation-state crises within Tibet are not sufficiently explained through a focus on the influence of the segment state. This is the case for two reasons. First, the TAR cannot be accurately described as a segment state given significant limitations on the autonomy enjoyed by the Tibetan people within their homeland in terms of politics, religion, education and the economy. Second, rather than the existence of a segment state, international factors appear to play an important role in escalating nation-state crises within the TAR.

Introduction: Segment States in the Developing World

Abstract Philip Roeders Where Nation-states Come From: Institutional Change in the Age of Nationalism identifies a causal relationship between the creation of segment states within a countrys borders and the heightened likelihood of both nation-state crises and state disintegration. This paper provides a summary of the key aspects of Roeders theoretical argument. It also introduces the four country case studies that appear later in this volume, considering how they may serve as a means to evaluate the degree to which Roeders theory provides an accurate depiction of the political dynamics within countries that contain segment states.