Matthew J. Bechle

Electric Vehicles in China: Emissions and Health Impacts

E-bikes in China are the single largest adoption of alternative fuel vehicles in history, with more than 100 million e-bikes purchased in the past decade and vehicle ownership about 2× larger for e-bikes as for conventional cars; e-car sales, too, are rapidly growing. We compare emissions (CO(2), PM(2.5), NO(X), HC) and environmental health impacts (primary PM(2.5)) from the use of conventional vehicles (CVs) and electric vehicles (EVs) in 34 major cities in China. CO(2) emissions (g km(-1)) vary and are an order of magnitude greater for e-cars (135-274) and CVs (150-180) than for e-bikes (14-27). PM(2.5) emission factors generally are lower for CVs (gasoline or diesel) than comparable EVs. However, intake fraction is often greater for CVs than for EVs because combustion emissions are generally closer to population centers for CVs (tailpipe emissions) than for EVs (power plant emissions). For most cities, the net result is that primary PM(2.5) environmental health impacts per passenger-km are greater for e-cars than for gasoline cars (3.6× on average), lower than for diesel cars (2.5× on average), and equal to diesel buses. In contrast, e-bikes yield lower environmental health impacts per passenger-km than the three CVs investigated: gasoline cars (2×), diesel cars (10×), and diesel buses (5×). Our findings highlight the importance of considering exposures, and especially the proximity of emissions to people, when evaluating environmental health impacts for EVs.

National Satellite-Based Land-Use Regression: NO2 in the United States

Land-use regression models (LUR) estimate outdoor air pollution at high spatial resolution. Previous LURs have generally focused on individual cities. Here, we present an LUR for year-2006 ground-level NO(2) concentrations throughout the contiguous United States. Our approach employs ground- and satellite-based NO(2) measurements, and geographic characteristics such as population density, land-use (based on satellite data), and distance to major and minor roads. The results provide reliable estimates of ambient NO(2) air pollution as measured by the U.S. EPA (R(2) = 0.78; bias = 22%) at a spatial resolution (∼ 30 m) that is capable of capturing within-urban and near-roadway gradients in NO(2). We explore several aspects of temporal (time-of-day; day-of-week; season) and spatial (urban versus rural; U.S. region) variability in the model. Results are robust to spatial autocorrelation, to selection of an alternative input data set, and to minor perturbations in input data (using 90% of the data to predict the remaining 10%). The modeled population-weighted (unweighted) mean outdoor concentration in the United States is 10.7 (4.8) ppb. Our approach could be implemented in other areas of the world given sufficient road network and pollutant monitoring data. To facilitate future use and evaluation of the results, concentration estimates for the ∼ 8 million U.S. Census blocks in the contiguous United States are publicly available via the Supporting Information.

Western european land use regression incorporating satellite- and ground-based measurements of NO2 and PM10

Land use regression (LUR) models typically investigate within-urban variability in air pollution. Recent improvements in data quality and availability, including satellite-derived pollutant measurements, support fine-scale LUR modeling for larger areas. Here, we describe NO2 and PM10 LUR models for Western Europe (years: 2005-2007) based on >1500 EuroAirnet monitoring sites covering background, industrial, and traffic environments. Predictor variables include land use characteristics, population density, and length of major and minor roads in zones from 0.1 km to 10 km, altitude, and distance to sea. We explore models with and without satellite-based NO2 and PM2.5 as predictor variables, and we compare two available land cover data sets (global; European). Model performance (adjusted R(2)) is 0.48-0.58 for NO2 and 0.22-0.50 for PM10. Inclusion of satellite data improved model performance (adjusted R(2)) by, on average, 0.05 for NO2 and 0.11 for PM10. Models were applied on a 100 m grid across Western Europe; to support future research, these data sets are publicly available.

National Spatiotemporal Exposure Surface for NO2: Monthly Scaling of a Satellite-Derived Land-Use Regression, 2000-2010.

Land-use regression (LUR) is widely used for estimating within-urban variability in air pollution. While LUR has recently been extended to national and continental scales, these models are typically for long-term averages. Here we present NO2 surfaces for the continental United States with excellent spatial resolution (∼100 m) and monthly average concentrations for one decade. We investigate multiple potential data sources (e.g., satellite column and surface estimates, high- and standard-resolution satellite data, and a mechanistic model [WRF-Chem]), approaches to model building (e.g., one model for the whole country versus having separate models for urban and rural areas, monthly LURs versus temporal scaling of a spatial LUR), and spatial interpolation methods for temporal scaling factors (e.g., kriging versus inverse distance weighted). Our core approach uses NO2 measurements from U.S. EPA monitors (2000-2010) to build a spatial LUR and to calculate spatially varying temporal scaling factors. The model captures 82% of the spatial and 76% of the temporal variability (population-weighted average) of monthly mean NO2 concentrations from U.S. EPA monitors with low average bias (21%) and error (2.4 ppb). Model performance in absolute terms is similar near versus far from monitors, and in urban, suburban, and rural locations (mean absolute error 2-3 ppb); since low-density locations generally experience lower concentrations, model performance in relative terms is better near monitors than far from monitors (mean bias 3% versus 40%) and is better for urban and suburban locations (1-6%) than for rural locations (78%, reflecting the relatively clean conditions in many rural areas). During 2000-2010, population-weighted mean NO2 exposure decreased 42% (1.0 ppb [∼5.2%] per year), from 23.2 ppb (year 2000) to 13.5 ppb (year 2010). We apply our approach to all U.S. Census blocks in the contiguous United States to provide 132 months of publicly available, high-resolution NO2 concentration estimates.

Development of West-European PM2.5 and NO2 land use regression models incorporating satellite-derived and chemical transport modelling data

Satellite-derived (SAT) and chemical transport model (CTM) estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 are increasingly used in combination with Land Use Regression (LUR) models. We aimed to compare the contribution of SAT and CTM data to the performance of LUR PM2.5 and NO2 models for Europe. Four sets of models, all including local traffic and land use variables, were compared (LUR without SAT or CTM, with SAT only, with CTM only, and with both SAT and CTM). LUR models were developed using two monitoring data sets: PM2.5 and NO2 ground level measurements from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) and from the European AIRBASE network. LUR PM2.5 models including SAT and SAT+CTM explained ~60% of spatial variation in measured PM2.5 concentrations, substantially more than the LUR model without SAT and CTM (adjR2: 0.33-0.38). For NO2 CTM improved prediction modestly (adjR2: 0.58) compared to models without SAT and CTM (adjR2: 0.47-0.51). Both monitoring networks are capable of producing models explaining the spatial variance over a large study area. SAT and CTM estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 significantly improved the performance of high spatial resolution LUR models at the European scale for use in large epidemiological studies.

Satellite-Based NO2 and Model Validation in a National Prediction Model Based on Universal Kriging and Land-Use Regression

Epidemiological studies increasingly rely on exposure prediction models. Predictive performance of satellite data has not been evaluated in a combined land-use regression/spatial smoothing context. We performed regionalized national land-use regression with and without universal kriging on annual average NO2 measurements (1990-2012, contiguous U.S. EPA sites). Regression covariates were dimension-reduced components of 418 geographic variables including distance to roadway. We estimated model performance with two cross-validation approaches: using randomly selected groups and, in order to assess predictions to unmonitored areas, spatially clustered cross-validation groups. Ground-level NO2 was estimated from satellite-derived NO2 and was assessed as an additional regression covariate. Kriging models performed consistently better than nonkriging models. Among kriging models, conventional cross-validated R(2) (R(2)cv) averaged over all years was 0.85 for the satellite data models and 0.84 for the models without satellite data. Average spatially clustered R(2)cv was 0.74 for the satellite data models and 0.64 for the models without satellite data. The addition of either kriging or satellite data to a well-specified NO2 land-use regression model each improves prediction. Adding the satellite variable to a kriging model only marginally improves predictions in well-sampled areas (conventional cross-validation) but substantially improves predictions for points far from monitoring locations (clustered cross-validation).

Long-term nitrogen dioxide exposure assessment using back-extrapolation of satellite-based land-use regression models for Australia

&NA; Assessing historical exposure to air pollution in epidemiological studies is often problematic because of limited spatial and temporal measurement coverage. Several methods for modelling historical exposures have been described, including land‐use regression (LUR). Satellite‐based LUR is a recent technique that seeks to improve predictive ability and spatial coverage of traditional LUR models by using satellite observations of pollutants as inputs to LUR. Few studies have explored its validity for assessing historical exposures, reflecting the absence of historical observations from popular satellite platforms like Aura (launched mid‐2004). We investigated whether contemporary satellite‐based LUR models for Australia, developed longitudinally for 2006–2011, could capture nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations during 1990–2005 at 89 sites around the country. We assessed three methods to back‐extrapolate year‐2006 NO2 predictions: (1) ‘do nothing’ (i.e., use the year‐2006 estimates directly, for prior years); (2) change the independent variable ‘year’ in our LUR models to match the years of interest (i.e., assume a linear trend prior to year‐2006, following national average patterns in 2006–2011), and; (3) adjust year‐2006 predictions using selected historical measurements. We evaluated prediction error and bias, and the correlation and absolute agreement of measurements and predictions using R2 and mean‐square error R2 (MSE‐R2), respectively. We found that changing the year variable led to best performance; predictions captured between 41% (1991; MSE‐R2 = 31%) and 80% (2003; MSE‐R2 = 78%) of spatial variability in NO2 in a given year, and 76% (MSE‐R2 = 72%) averaged over 1990–2005. We conclude that simple methods for back‐extrapolating prior to year‐2006 yield valid historical NO2 estimates for Australia during 1990–2005. These results suggest that for the time scales considered here, satellite‐based LUR has a potential role to play in long‐term exposure assessment, even in the absence of historical predictor data. HighlightsWe assessed how well a year‐2006 satellite‐based LUR model captures historical NO2.We used three methods to estimate annual mean NO2 during 1990–2005.We measured their performance using standard LUR validation techniques.Back‐extrapolated 2006 levels captured up to 76% of spatial variability (90–05).