Matthew J. McQueen

Effect of potentially modifiable risk factors associated with myocardial infarction in 52 countries (the INTERHEART study): case-control study

BACKGROUND Although more than 80% of the global burden of cardiovascular disease occurs in low-income and middle-income countries, knowledge of the importance of risk factors is largely derived from developed countries. Therefore, the effect of such factors on risk of coronary heart disease in most regions of the world is unknown. METHODS We established a standardised case-control study of acute myocardial infarction in 52 countries, representing every inhabited continent. 15152 cases and 14820 controls were enrolled. The relation of smoking, history of hypertension or diabetes, waist/hip ratio, dietary patterns, physical activity, consumption of alcohol, blood apolipoproteins (Apo), and psychosocial factors to myocardial infarction are reported here. Odds ratios and their 99% CIs for the association of risk factors to myocardial infarction and their population attributable risks (PAR) were calculated. FINDINGS Smoking (odds ratio 2.87 for current vs never, PAR 35.7% for current and former vs never), raised ApoB/ApoA1 ratio (3.25 for top vs lowest quintile, PAR 49.2% for top four quintiles vs lowest quintile), history of hypertension (1.91, PAR 17.9%), diabetes (2.37, PAR 9.9%), abdominal obesity (1.12 for top vs lowest tertile and 1.62 for middle vs lowest tertile, PAR 20.1% for top two tertiles vs lowest tertile), psychosocial factors (2.67, PAR 32.5%), daily consumption of fruits and vegetables (0.70, PAR 13.7% for lack of daily consumption), regular alcohol consumption (0.91, PAR 6.7%), and regular physical activity (0.86, PAR 12.2%), were all significantly related to acute myocardial infarction (p<0.0001 for all risk factors and p=0.03 for alcohol). These associations were noted in men and women, old and young, and in all regions of the world. Collectively, these nine risk factors accounted for 90% of the PAR in men and 94% in women. INTERPRETATION Abnormal lipids, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, abdominal obesity, psychosocial factors, consumption of fruits, vegetables, and alcohol, and regular physical activity account for most of the risk of myocardial infarction worldwide in both sexes and at all ages in all regions. This finding suggests that approaches to prevention can be based on similar principles worldwide and have the potential to prevent most premature cases of myocardial infarction.

RISK FACTORS FOR ISCHAEMIC AND INTRACEREBRAL HAEMORRHAGIC STROKE IN 22 COUNTRIES (THE INTERSTROKE STUDY): A CASE-CONTROL STUDY

BACKGROUND The contribution of various risk factors to the burden of stroke worldwide is unknown, particularly in countries of low and middle income. We aimed to establish the association of known and emerging risk factors with stroke and its primary subtypes, assess the contribution of these risk factors to the burden of stroke, and explore the differences between risk factors for stroke and myocardial infarction. METHODS We undertook a standardised case-control study in 22 countries worldwide between March 1, 2007, and April 23, 2010. Cases were patients with acute first stroke (within 5 days of symptoms onset and 72 h of hospital admission). Controls had no history of stroke, and were matched with cases for age and sex. All participants completed a structured questionnaire and a physical examination, and most provided blood and urine samples. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and population-attributable risks (PARs) for the association of all stroke, ischaemic stroke, and intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke with selected risk factors. FINDINGS In the first 3000 cases (n=2337, 78%, with ischaemic stroke; n=663, 22%, with intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke) and 3000 controls, significant risk factors for all stroke were: history of hypertension (OR 2.64, 99% CI 2.26-3.08; PAR 34.6%, 99% CI 30.4-39.1); current smoking (2.09, 1.75-2.51; 18.9%, 15.3-23.1); waist-to-hip ratio (1.65, 1.36-1.99 for highest vs lowest tertile; 26.5%, 18.8-36.0); diet risk score (1.35, 1.11-1.64 for highest vs lowest tertile; 18.8%, 11.2-29.7); regular physical activity (0.69, 0.53-0.90; 28.5%, 14.5-48.5); diabetes mellitus (1.36, 1.10-1.68; 5.0%, 2.6-9.5); alcohol intake (1.51, 1.18-1.92 for more than 30 drinks per month or binge drinking; 3.8%, 0.9-14.4); psychosocial stress (1.30, 1.06-1.60; 4.6%, 2.1-9.6) and depression (1.35, 1.10-1.66; 5.2%, 2.7-9.8); cardiac causes (2.38, 1.77-3.20; 6.7%, 4.8-9.1); and ratio of apolipoproteins B to A1 (1.89, 1.49-2.40 for highest vs lowest tertile; 24.9%, 15.7-37.1). Collectively, these risk factors accounted for 88.1% (99% CI 82.3-92.2) of the PAR for all stroke. When an alternate definition of hypertension was used (history of hypertension or blood pressure >160/90 mm Hg), the combined PAR was 90.3% (85.3-93.7) for all stroke. These risk factors were all significant for ischaemic stroke, whereas hypertension, smoking, waist-to-hip ratio, diet, and alcohol intake were significant risk factors for intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke. INTERPRETATION Our findings suggest that ten risk factors are associated with 90% of the risk of stroke. Targeted interventions that reduce blood pressure and smoking, and promote physical activity and a healthy diet, could substantially reduce the burden of stroke. FUNDING Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Pfizer Cardiovascular Award, Merck, AstraZeneca, and Boehringer Ingelheim.

Renal outcomes with telmisartan, ramipril, or both, in people at high vascular risk (the ONTARGET study): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, controlled trial

BACKGROUND Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB) and angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors are known to reduce proteinuria. Their combination might be more effective than either treatment alone, but long-term data for comparative changes in renal function are not available. We investigated the renal effects of ramipril (an ACE inhibitor), telmisartan (an ARB), and their combination in patients aged 55 years or older with established atherosclerotic vascular disease or with diabetes with end-organ damage. METHODS The trial ran from 2001 to 2007. After a 3-week run-in period, 25 620 participants were randomly assigned to ramipril 10 mg a day (n=8576), telmisartan 80 mg a day (n=8542), or to a combination of both drugs (n=8502; median follow-up was 56 months), and renal function and proteinuria were measured. The primary renal outcome was a composite of dialysis, doubling of serum creatinine, and death. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00153101. FINDINGS 784 patients permanently discontinued randomised therapy during the trial because of hypotensive symptoms (406 on combination therapy, 149 on ramipril, and 229 on telmisartan). The number of events for the composite primary outcome was similar for telmisartan (n=1147 [13.4%]) and ramipril (1150 [13.5%]; hazard ratio [HR] 1.00, 95% CI 0.92-1.09), but was increased with combination therapy (1233 [14.5%]; HR 1.09, 1.01-1.18, p=0.037). The secondary renal outcome, dialysis or doubling of serum creatinine, was similar with telmisartan (189 [2.21%]) and ramipril (174 [2.03%]; HR 1.09, 0.89-1.34) and more frequent with combination therapy (212 [2.49%]: HR 1.24, 1.01-1.51, p=0.038). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) declined least with ramipril compared with telmisartan (-2.82 [SD 17.2] mL/min/1.73 m(2)vs -4.12 [17.4], p<0.0001) or combination therapy (-6.11 [17.9], p<0.0001). The increase in urinary albumin excretion was less with telmisartan (p=0.004) or with combination therapy (p=0.001) than with ramipril. INTERPRETATION In people at high vascular risk, telmisartans effects on major renal outcomes are similar to ramipril. Although combination therapy reduces proteinuria to a greater extent than monotherapy, overall it worsens major renal outcomes.

Differences in risk factors, atherosclerosis, and cardiovascular disease between ethnic groups in Canada: the Study of Health Assessment and Risk in Ethnic groups (SHARE)

BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease rates vary greatly between ethnic groups in Canada. To establish whether this variation can be explained by differences in disease risk factors and subclinical atherosclerosis, we undertook a population-based study of three ethnic groups in Canada: South Asians, Chinese, and Europeans. METHODS 985 participants were recruited from three cities (Hamilton, Toronto, and Edmonton) by stratified random sampling. Clinical cardiovascular disease was defined by history or electrocardiographic findings. Carotid atherosclerosis was measured with B-mode ultrasonography. Conventional (smoking, hypertension, diabetes, raised cholesterol) and novel risk factors (markers of a prothrombotic state) were measured. FINDINGS Within each ethnic group and overall, the degree of carotid atherosclerosis was associated with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease. South Asians had the highest prevalence of this condition compared with Europeans and Chinese (11%, 5%, and 2%, respectively, p=0.0004). Despite this finding, Europeans had more atherosclerosis (mean of the maximum intimal medial thickness 0.75 [0.16] mm) than South Asians (0.72 [0.15] mm), and Chinese (0.69 [0.16] mm). South Asians had an increased prevalence of glucose intolerance, higher total and LDL cholesterol, higher triglycerides, and lower HDL cholesterol, and much greater abnormalities in novel risk factors including higher concentrations of fibrinogen, homocysteine, lipoprotein (a), and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1. INTERPRETATION Although there are differences in conventional and novel risk factors between ethnic groups, this variation and the degree of atherosclerosis only partly explains the higher rates of cardiovascular disease among South Asians compared with Europeans and Chinese. The increased risk of cardiovascular events could be due to factors affecting plaque rupture, the interaction between prothrombotic factors and atherosclerosis, or as yet undiscovered risk factors.

Lipids, lipoproteins, and apolipoproteins as risk markers of myocardial infarction in 52 countries (the INTERHEART study): a case-control study

BACKGROUND Whether lipoproteins are better markers than lipids and lipoproteins for coronary heart disease is widely debated. Our aim was to compare the apolipoproteins and cholesterol as indices for risk of acute myocardial infarction. METHODS We did a large, standardised case-control study of acute myocardial infarction in 12,461 cases and 14,637 age-matched (plus or minus 5 years) and sex-matched controls in 52 countries. Non-fasting blood samples were available from 9345 cases and 12,120 controls. Concentrations of plasma lipids, lipoproteins, and apolipoproteins were measured, and cholesterol and apolipoprotein ratios were calculated. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI, and population-attributable risks (PARs) were calculated for each measure overall and for each ethnic group by comparison of the top four quintiles with the lowest quintile. FINDINGS The apolipoprotein B100 (ApoB)/apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1) ratio had the highest PAR (54%) and the highest OR with each 1 SD difference (1.59, 95% CI 1.53-1.64). The PAR for ratio of LDL cholesterol/HDL cholesterol was 37%. PAR for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol was 32%, which was substantially lower than that of the ApoB/ApoA1 ratio (p<0.0001). These results were consistent in all ethnic groups, men and women, and for all ages. INTERPRETATION The non-fasting ApoB/ApoA1 ratio was superior to any of the cholesterol ratios for estimation of the risk of acute myocardial infarction in all ethnic groups, in both sexes, and at all ages, and it should be introduced into worldwide clinical practice.

Defining Obesity Cut Points in a Multiethnic Population

Background— Body mass index (BMI) is widely used to assess risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Cut points for the classification of obesity (BMI >30 kg/m2) have been developed and validated among people of European descent. It is unknown whether these cut points are appropriate for non-European populations. We assessed the metabolic risk associated with BMI among South Asians, Chinese, Aboriginals, and Europeans. Methods and Results— We randomly sampled 1078 subjects from 4 ethnic groups (289 South Asians, 281 Chinese, 207 Aboriginals, and 301 Europeans) from 4 regions in Canada. Principal components factor analysis was used to derive underlying latent or “hidden” factors associated with 14 clinical and biochemical cardiometabolic markers. Ethnic-specific BMI cut points were derived for 3 cardiometabolic factors. Three primary latent factors emerged that accounted for 56% of the variation in markers of glucose metabolism, lipid metabolism, and blood pressure. For a given BMI, elevated levels of glucose- and lipid-related factors were more likely to be present in South Asians, Chinese, and Aboriginals compared with Europeans, and elevated levels of the blood pressure–related factor were more likely to be present among Chinese compared with Europeans. The cut point to define obesity, as defined by distribution of glucose and lipid factors, is lower by ≈6 kg/m2 among non-European groups compared with Europeans. Conclusions— Revisions may be warranted for BMI cut points to define obesity among South Asians, Chinese, and Aboriginals. Using these revised cut points would greatly increase the estimated burden of obesity-related metabolic disorders among non-European populations.

Urinary Sodium and Potassium Excretion and Risk of Cardiovascular Events

CONTEXT The precise relationship between sodium and potassium intake and cardiovascular (CV) risk remains uncertain, especially in patients with CV disease. OBJECTIVE To determine the association between estimated urinary sodium and potassium excretion (surrogates for intake) and CV events in patients with established CV disease or diabetes mellitus. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Observational analyses of 2 cohorts (N = 28,880) included in the ONTARGET and TRANSCEND trials (November 2001-March 2008 from initial recruitment to final follow-up). We estimated 24-hour urinary sodium and potassium excretion from a morning fasting urine sample (Kawasaki formula). We used restricted cubic spline plots to describe the association between sodium and potassium excretion and CV events and mortality, and to identify reference categories for sodium and potassium excretion. We used Cox proportional hazards multivariable models to determine the association of urinary sodium and potassium with CV events and mortality. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and hospitalization for congestive heart failure (CHF). RESULTS At baseline, the mean (SD) estimated 24-hour excretion for sodium was 4.77 g (1.61); and for potassium was 2.19 g (0.57). After a median follow-up of 56 months, the composite outcome occurred in 4729 (16.4%) participants, including 2057 CV deaths, 1412 with MI, 1282 with stroke, and 1213 with hospitalization for CHF. Compared with the reference group with estimated baseline sodium excretion of 4 to 5.99 g per day (n = 14,156; 6.3% participants with CV death, 4.6% with MI, 4.2% with stroke, and 3.8% admitted to hospital with CHF), higher baseline sodium excretion was associated with an increased risk of CV death (9.7% for 7-8 g/day; hazard ratio [HR], 1.53; 95% CI, 1.26-1.86; and 11.2% for >8 g/day; HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.31-2.10), MI (6.8%; HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.11-1.98 for >8 g/day), stroke (6.6%; HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.09-2.01 for >8 g/day), and hospitalization for CHF (6.5%; HR, 1.51; 1.12-2.05 for >8 g/day). Lower sodium excretion was associated with an increased risk of CV death (8.6%; HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.02-1.39 for 2-2.99 g/day; 10.6%; HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.09-1.73 for <2 g/day), and hospitalization for CHF (5.2%; HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.01-1.49 for 2-2.99 g/day) on multivariable analysis. Compared with an estimated potassium excretion of less than 1.5 g per day (n = 2194; 6.2% with stroke), higher potassium excretion was associated with a reduced risk of stroke (4.7% [HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.63-0.94] for 1.5-1.99 g/day; 4.3% [HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.59-0.90] for 2-2.49 g/day; 3.9% [HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56-0.91] for 2.5-3 g/day; and 3.5% [HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.49-0.92] for >3 g/day) on multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS The association between estimated sodium excretion and CV events was J-shaped. Compared with baseline sodium excretion of 4 to 5.99 g per day, sodium excretion of greater than 7 g per day was associated with an increased risk of all CV events, and a sodium excretion of less than 3 g per day was associated with increased risk of CV mortality and hospitalization for CHF. Higher estimated potassium excretion was associated with a reduced risk of stroke.

Urinary Sodium and Potassium Excretion, Mortality, and Cardiovascular Events

BACKGROUND The optimal range of sodium intake for cardiovascular health is controversial. METHODS We obtained morning fasting urine samples from 101,945 persons in 17 countries and estimated 24-hour sodium and potassium excretion (used as a surrogate for intake). We examined the association between estimated urinary sodium and potassium excretion and the composite outcome of death and major cardiovascular events. RESULTS The mean estimated sodium and potassium excretion was 4.93 g per day and 2.12 g per day, respectively. With a mean follow-up of 3.7 years, the composite outcome occurred in 3317 participants (3.3%). As compared with an estimated sodium excretion of 4.00 to 5.99 g per day (reference range), a higher estimated sodium excretion (≥ 7.00 g per day) was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.30), as well as increased risks of death and major cardiovascular events considered separately. The association between a high estimated sodium excretion and the composite outcome was strongest among participants with hypertension (P=0.02 for interaction), with an increased risk at an estimated sodium excretion of 6.00 g or more per day. As compared with the reference range, an estimated sodium excretion that was below 3.00 g per day was also associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.44). As compared with an estimated potassium excretion that was less than 1.50 g per day, higher potassium excretion was associated with a reduced risk of the composite outcome. CONCLUSIONS In this study in which sodium intake was estimated on the basis of measured urinary excretion, an estimated sodium intake between 3 g per day and 6 g per day was associated with a lower risk of death and cardiovascular events than was either a higher or lower estimated level of intake. As compared with an estimated potassium excretion that was less than 1.50 g per day, higher potassium excretion was associated with a lower risk of death and cardiovascular events. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).

Association of Urinary Sodium and Potassium Excretion with Blood Pressure

BACKGROUND Higher levels of sodium intake are reported to be associated with higher blood pressure. Whether this relationship varies according to levels of sodium or potassium intake and in different populations is unknown. METHODS We studied 102,216 adults from 18 countries. Estimates of 24-hour sodium and potassium excretion were made from a single fasting morning urine specimen and were used as surrogates for intake. We assessed the relationship between electrolyte excretion and blood pressure, as measured with an automated device. RESULTS Regression analyses showed increments of 2.11 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure and 0.78 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure for each 1-g increment in estimated sodium excretion. The slope of this association was steeper with higher sodium intake (an increment of 2.58 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure per gram for sodium excretion >5 g per day, 1.74 mm Hg per gram for 3 to 5 g per day, and 0.74 mm Hg per gram for <3 g per day; P<0.001 for interaction). The slope of association was steeper for persons with hypertension (2.49 mm Hg per gram) than for those without hypertension (1.30 mm Hg per gram, P<0.001 for interaction) and was steeper with increased age (2.97 mm Hg per gram at >55 years of age, 2.43 mm Hg per gram at 45 to 55 years of age, and 1.96 mm Hg per gram at <45 years of age; P<0.001 for interaction). Potassium excretion was inversely associated with systolic blood pressure, with a steeper slope of association for persons with hypertension than for those without it (P<0.001) and a steeper slope with increased age (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS In this study, the association of estimated intake of sodium and potassium, as determined from measurements of excretion of these cations, with blood pressure was nonlinear and was most pronounced in persons consuming high-sodium diets, persons with hypertension, and older persons. (Funded by the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario and others.).

A Meta-Analysis of Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, Non-High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, and Apolipoprotein B as Markers of Cardiovascular Risk

Background— Whether apolipoprotein B (apoB) or non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) adds to the predictive power of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) for cardiovascular risk remains controversial. Methods and Results— This meta-analysis is based on all the published epidemiological studies that contained estimates of the relative risks of non-HDL-C and apoB of fatal or nonfatal ischemic cardiovascular events. Twelve independent reports, including 233 455 subjects and 22 950 events, were analyzed. All published risk estimates were converted to standardized relative risk ratios (RRRs) and analyzed by quantitative meta-analysis using a random-effects model. Whether analyzed individually or in head-to-head comparisons, apoB was the most potent marker of cardiovascular risk (RRR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35 to 1.51), LDL-C was the least (RRR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.33), and non-HDL-C was intermediate (RRR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.24 to 1.44). The overall comparisons of the within-study differences showed that apoB RRR was 5.7%>non-HDL-C (P<0.001) and 12.0%>LDL-C (P<0.0001) and that non-HDL-C RRR was 5.0%>LDL-C (P=0.017). Only HDL-C accounted for any substantial portion of the variance of the results among the studies. We calculated the number of clinical events prevented by a high-risk treatment regimen of all those >70th percentile of the US adult population using each of the 3 markers. Over a 10-year period, a non-HDL-C strategy would prevent 300 000 more events than an LDL-C strategy, whereas an apoB strategy would prevent 500 000 more events than a non-HDL-C strategy. Conclusions— These results further validate the value of apoB in clinical care.