Matthew Knuiman

Onset of NIDDM occurs at least 4-7 Yr before clinical diagnosis

Objective To investigate duration of the period between diabetes onset and its clinical diagnosis. Research Design and Methods Two population-based groups of white patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes (NIDDM) in the United States and Australia were studied. Prevalence of retinopathy and duration of diabetes subsequent to clinical diagnosis were determined for all subjects. Weighted linear regression was used to examine the relationship between diabetes duration and prevalence of retinopathy. Results Prevalence of retinopathy at clinical diagnosis of diabetes was estimated to be 20.8% in the U.S. and 9.9% in Australia and increased linearly with longer duration of diabetes. By extrapolating this linear relationship to the time when retinopathy prevalence was estimated to be zero, onset of detectable retinopathy was calculated to have occurred ∼ 4–7 yr before diagnosis of NIDDM. Because other data indicate that diabetes may be present for 5 yr before retinopathy becomes evident, onset of NIDDM may occur 9–12 yr before its clinical diagnosis. Conclusions These findings suggest that undiagnosed NIDDM is not a benign condition. Clinically significant morbidity is present at diagnosis and for years before diagnosis. During this preclinical period, treatment is not being offered for diabetes or its specific complications, despite the fact that reduction in hyperglycemia, hypertension, and cardiovascular risk factors is believed to benefit patients. Imprecise dating of diabetes onset also obscures investigations of the etiology of NIDDM and studies of the nature and importance of risk factors for diabetes complications.

Complications of cholecystectomy: risks of the laparoscopic approach and protective effects of operative cholangiography: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND Previous studies suggest that laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) is associated with an increased risk of intraoperative injury involving the bile ducts, bowel, and vascular structures compared with open cholecystectomy (OC). Population-based studies are required to estimate the magnitude of the increased risk, to determine whether this is changing over time, and to identify ways by which this might be reduced. METHODS Suspected cases of intraoperative injury associated with cholecystectomy in Western Australia in the period 1988 to 1994 were identified from routinely collected hospital statistical records and lists of persons undergoing postoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. The case records of suspect cases were reviewed to confirm the nature and site of injury. Ordinal logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of injury associated with LC compared with OC after adjusting for confounding factors. RESULTS After the introduction of LC in 1991, the proportion of all cholecystectomy cases with intraoperative injury increased from 0.67% in 1988-90 to 1.33% in 1993-94. Similar relative increases were observed in bile duct injuries, major bile leaks, and other injuries to bowel or vascular structures. Increases in intraoperative injury were observed in both LC and OC. After adjustment for age, gender, hospital type, severity of disease, intraoperative cholangiography, and calendar period, the odds ratio for intraoperative injury in LC compared with OC was 1.79. Operative cholangiography significantly reduced the risk of injury. CONCLUSION Operative cholangiography has a protective effect for complications of cholecystectomy. Compared with OC, LC carries a nearly twofold higher risk of major bile, vascular, and bowel complications. Further study is required to determine the extent to which potentially preventable factors contribute to this risk.

NAFLD as a risk factor for the development of diabetes and the metabolic syndrome: an eleven-year follow-up study.

OBJECTIVES:Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) uncommonly results in cirrhosis and liver-related death; however, its impact on the development of metabolic complications remains unclear. We sought to determine whether NAFLD with elevated aminotransaminase (ALT) levels was a risk factor for incident diabetes or the metabolic syndrome (MS) over an 11-year period.METHODS:Adult residents of Busselton, Western Australia underwent assessment in 1994–1995 as part of the Busselton Health Survey. NAFLD was diagnosed on the basis of a raised ALT (>40 IU/l) after the exclusion of alcohol, viral, metabolic, and autoimmune liver disease. NAFLD and non-NAFLD subjects were reassessed in 2005 for liver complications, diabetes, and the MS.RESULTS:A total of 358 subjects, 68% male (109 NAFLD, 249 non-NAFLD), mean age (s.d.) 59.9 (11.6) years, attended follow-up 11.1 years after the initial assessment. After excluding subjects with diabetes at baseline, those with NAFLD were more likely to have developed diabetes on follow-up (20/106, 18.9% vs. 15/246, 6.1%; P<0.001). After excluding subjects with MS at baseline, those with NAFLD were more likely to have developed MS at follow-up (27/81, 33.3% vs. 51/226, 22.6%; P=0.056). However, in multivariate logistic regression models, NAFLD was no longer a significant independent predictor of the development of diabetes or MS after adjusting for baseline waist circumference, hypertension, and insulin resistance. None of the subjects developed liver complications.CONCLUSIONS:Subjects with NAFLD and elevated ALT levels are at an increased risk of developing diabetes and the MS. This may be because of the presence of associated metabolic risk factors.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality.

IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Determinants of long-term survival after intensive care

Objective:To identify prognostic determinants of long-term survival for patients treated in intensive care units (ICUs) who survived to hospital discharge. Design:An ICU clinical cohort linked to state-wide hospital records and death registers. Setting and Patients:Adult patients admitted to a 22-bed ICU at a major teaching hospital in Perth, Western Australia, between 1987 and 2002 who survived to hospital discharge (n = 19,921) were followed-up until December 31, 2003. Measurements:The main outcome measures are crude and adjusted survival. Main Results:The risk of death in the first year after hospital discharge was high for patients who survived the ICU compared with the general population (standardized mortality rate [SMR] at 1 yr = 2.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.73–3.08) and remained higher than the general population for every year during 15 yrs of follow up (SMR at 15 yrs = 2.01, 95% CI 1.64–2.46). Factors that were independently associated with survival during the first year were older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.09; 95% CI 3.20–5.23), severe comorbidity (HR = 5.23; 95% CI 4.25–6.43), ICU diagnostic group (HR range 2.20 to 8.95), new malignancy (HR = 4.60; 95% CI 3.68–5.76), high acute physiology score on admission (HR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.23–1.96), and peak number of organ failures (HR = 1.51; 95% CI 1.11–2.04). All of these factors were independently associated with subsequent survival for those patients who were alive 1 yr after discharge from the hospital with the addition of male gender (HR = 1.17; 95% CI 1.10–1.25) and prolonged length of stay in ICU (HR = 1.42; 95% CI 1.29–1.55). Conclusions:Patients who survived an admission to the ICU have worse survival than the general population for at least 15 yrs. The factors that determine long-term survival include age, comorbidity, and primary diagnosis. Severity of illness was also associated with long-term survival and this suggests that an episode of critical illness, or its treatment, may shorten life-expectancy.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration

IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Lung Function, Respiratory Symptoms, and Mortality: Results from the Busselton Health Study

PURPOSE This study examines the association between lung function [percentage predicted FEV, (forced expiratory volume in 1 s)] and respiratory symptoms (asthma, bronchitis, wheeze, dyspnea) and mortality from all causes; coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and respiratory disease in a cohort of 2,100 men and 2,177 women in the Busselton Health Study followed for 20-26 years for mortality. METHODS A total of 840 men and 637 women died during the follow-up period, and Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the relationships between risk factors and mortality. RESULTS Lung function was significantly and independently predictive of mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, cancer, and respiratory disease in both men and women, and of mortality from stroke in women. There was evidence that, among men, the association was stronger in current and former smokers as compared to those who never smoked. After adjustment for age, smoking, lung function, coronary heart disease, blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, total cholesterol, body mass index, and alcohol consumption, dyspnea was significantly related to total mortality in men and women and to respiratory disease mortality in men, and asthma was significantly related to respiratory disease mortality in women. CONCLUSIONS Lung function is associated with mortality from many diseases independent of smoking and respiratory symptoms. Although most respiratory symptoms are associated with smoking and lung function, after controlling for smoking and lung function, only dyspnea is associated with mortality from nonrespiratory causes.

Risk of death in prisoners after release from jail

Objective: To compare the risk of death in a cohort of Western Australian released prisoners with the risk experienced by the general population of Western Australia.

Investigations of thyroid hormones and antibodies based on a community health survey: the Busselton thyroid study

Objective  Overt or subclinical thyroid dysfunction is common within the community, yet the significance of subtle anomalies in thyroid function tests remains contentious. The aims of this study were to: (a) establish reference intervals for serum‐free thyroxine (FT4), thyroid‐stimulating hormone (TSH) and thyroid antibodies (antithyroperoxidase, TPOAb and antithyroglobulin, TgAb) in the Busselton community of south‐western Western Australia; and (b) determine the prevalence of thyroid hormone anomalies in this community.

Understanding Dog Owners’ Increased Levels of Physical Activity: Results From RESIDE

We examined the influence of dog ownership on physical activity, independent of demographic, intrapersonal, and perceived environmental factors, in a cross-sectional survey of 1813 adults. Although only 23% of the dog owners walked their dogs 5 or more times per week, the adjusted odds of achieving sufficient physical activity and walking were 57% to 77% higher among dog owners compared with those not owning dogs (P< .05). Dog ownership was independently associated with physical activity and walking. Actively encouraging more dog walking may increase community physical activity levels.