Matthew T. Clark

A new algorithm for detecting central apnea in neonates

Apnea of prematurity is an important and common clinical problem, and is often the rate-limiting process in NICU discharge. Accurate detection of episodes of clinically important neonatal apnea using existing chest impedance (CI) monitoring is a clinical imperative. The technique relies on changes in impedance as the lungs fill with air, a high impedance substance. A potential confounder, however, is blood coursing through the heart. Thus, the cardiac signal during apnea might be mistaken for breathing. We report here a new filter to remove the cardiac signal from the CI that employs a novel resampling technique optimally suited to remove the heart rate signal, allowing improved apnea detection. We also develop an apnea detection method that employs the CI after cardiac filtering. The method has been applied to a large database of physiological signals, and we prove that, compared to the presently used monitors, the new method gives substantial improvement in apnea detection.

Anemia, Apnea of Prematurity, and Blood Transfusions

OBJECTIVE To compare the frequency and severity of apneic events in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants before and after blood transfusions using continuous electronic waveform analysis. STUDY DESIGN We continuously collected waveform, heart rate, and oxygen saturation data from patients in all 45 neonatal intensive care unit beds at the University of Virginia for 120 weeks. Central apneas were detected using continuous computer processing of chest impedance, electrocardiographic, and oximetry signals. Apnea was defined as respiratory pauses of >10, >20, and >30 seconds when accompanied by bradycardia (<100 beats per minute) and hypoxemia (<80% oxyhemoglobin saturation as detected by pulse oximetry). Times of packed red blood cell transfusions were determined from bedside charts. Two cohorts were analyzed. In the transfusion cohort, waveforms were analyzed for 3 days before and after the transfusion for all VLBW infants who received a blood transfusion while also breathing spontaneously. Mean apnea rates for the previous 12 hours were quantified and differences for 12 hours before and after transfusion were compared. In the hematocrit cohort, 1453 hematocrit values from all VLBW infants admitted and breathing spontaneously during the time period were retrieved, and the association of hematocrit and apnea in the next 12 hours was tested using logistic regression. RESULTS Sixty-seven infants had 110 blood transfusions during times when complete monitoring data were available. Transfusion was associated with fewer computer-detected apneic events (P < .01). Probability of future apnea occurring within 12 hours increased with decreasing hematocrit values (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS Blood transfusions are associated with decreased apnea in VLBW infants, and apneas are less frequent at higher hematocrits.

Accurate automated apnea analysis in preterm infants.

OBJECTIVE In 2006 the apnea of prematurity (AOP) consensus group identified inaccurate counting of apnea episodes as a major barrier to progress in AOP research. We compare nursing records of AOP to events detected by a clinically validated computer algorithm that detects apnea from standard bedside monitors. STUDY DESIGN Waveform, vital sign, and alarm data were collected continuously from all very low-birth-weight infants admitted over a 25-month period, analyzed for central apnea, bradycardia, and desaturation (ABD) events, and compared with nursing documentation collected from charts. Our algorithm defined apnea as > 10 seconds if accompanied by bradycardia and desaturation. RESULTS Of the 3,019 nurse-recorded events, only 68% had any algorithm-detected ABD event. Of the 5,275 algorithm-detected prolonged apnea events > 30 seconds, only 26% had nurse-recorded documentation within 1 hour. Monitor alarms sounded in only 74% of events of algorithm-detected prolonged apnea events > 10 seconds. There were 8,190,418 monitor alarms of any description throughout the neonatal intensive care unit during the 747 days analyzed, or one alarm every 2 to 3 minutes per nurse. CONCLUSION An automated computer algorithm for continuous ABD quantitation is a far more reliable tool than the medical record to address the important research questions identified by the 2006 AOP consensus group.

Breath-by-breath analysis of cardiorespiratory interaction for quantifying developmental maturity in premature infants

In healthy neonates, connections between the heart and lungs through brain stem chemosensory pathways and the autonomic nervous system result in cardiorespiratory synchronization. This interdependence between cardiac and respiratory dynamics can be difficult to measure because of intermittent signal quality in intensive care settings and variability of heart and breathing rates. We employed a phase-based measure suggested by Schäfer and coworkers (Schäfer C, Rosenblum MG, Kurths J, Abel HH. Nature 392: 239-240, 1998) to obtain a breath-by-breath analysis of cardiorespiratory interaction. This measure of cardiorespiratory interaction does not distinguish between cardiac control of respiration associated with cardioventilatory coupling and respiratory influences on the heart rate associated with respiratory sinus arrhythmia. We calculated, in sliding 4-min windows, the probability density of heartbeats as a function of the concurrent phase of the respiratory cycle. Probability density functions whose Shannon entropy had a <0.1% chance of occurring from random numbers were classified as exhibiting interaction. In this way, we analyzed 18 infant-years of data from 1,202 patients in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit at University of Virginia. We found evidence of interaction in 3.3 patient-years of data (18%). Cardiorespiratory interaction increased several-fold with postnatal development, but, surprisingly, the rate of increase was not affected by gestational age at birth. We find evidence for moderate correspondence between this measure of cardiorespiratory interaction and cardioventilatory coupling and no evidence for respiratory sinus arrhythmia, leading to the need for further investigation of the underlying mechanism. Such continuous measures of physiological interaction may serve to gauge developmental maturity in neonatal intensive care patients and prove useful in decisions about incipient illness and about hospital discharge.

Heart rate dynamics preceding hemorrhage in the intensive care unit.

Occult hemorrhage in surgical/trauma intensive care unit (STICU) patients is common and may lead to circulatory collapse. Continuous electrocardiography (ECG) monitoring may allow for early identification and treatment, and could improve outcomes. We studied 4,259 consecutive admissions to the STICU at the University of Virginia Health System. We collected ECG waveform data captured by bedside monitors and calculated linear and non-linear measures of the RR interbeat intervals. We tested the hypothesis that a transfusion requirement of 3 or more PRBC transfusions in a 24 hour period is preceded by dynamical changes in these heart rate measures and performed logistic regression modeling. We identified 308 hemorrhage events. A multivariate model including heart rate, standard deviation of the RR intervals, detrended fluctuation analysis, and local dynamics density had a C-statistic of 0.62. Earlier detection of hemorrhage might improve outcomes by allowing earlier resuscitation in STICU patients.

Predictive monitoring for respiratory decompensation leading to urgent unplanned intubation in the neonatal intensive care unit

Background:Infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and especially those born with very low birth weight (VLBW; <1,500 g), are at risk for respiratory decompensation requiring endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation. Intubation and mechanical ventilation are associated with increased morbidity, particularly in urgent unplanned cases.Methods:We tested the hypothesis that the systemic response associated with respiratory decompensation can be detected from physiological monitoring and that statistical models of bedside monitoring data can identify infants at increased risk of urgent unplanned intubation. We studied 287 VLBW infants consecutively admitted to our NICU and found 96 events in 51 patients, excluding intubations occurring within 12 h of a previous extubation.Results:In order of importance in a multivariable statistical model, we found that the characteristics of reduced O2 saturation, especially as heart rate was falling; increased heart rate correlation with respiratory rate; and the amount of apnea were all significant independent predictors. The predictive model, validated internally by bootstrap, had a receiver-operating characteristic area of 0.84 ± 0.04.Conclusion:We propose that predictive monitoring in the NICU for urgent unplanned intubation may improve outcomes by allowing clinicians to intervene noninvasively before intubation is required.

Very long apnea events in preterm infants

Apnea is nearly universal among very low birth weight (VLBW) infants, and the associated bradycardia and desaturation may have detrimental consequences. We describe here very long (>60 s) central apnea events (VLAs) with bradycardia and desaturation, discovered using a computerized detection system applied to our database of over 100 infant years of electronic signals. Eighty-six VLAs occurred in 29 out of 335 VLBW infants. Eighteen of the 29 infants had a clinical event or condition possibly related to the VLA. Most VLAs occurred while infants were on nasal continuous positive airway pressure, supplemental oxygen, and caffeine. Apnea alarms on the bedside monitor activated in 66% of events, on average 28 s after cessation of breathing. Bradycardia alarms activated late, on average 64 s after cessation of breathing. Before VLAs oxygen saturation was unusually high, and during VLAs oxygen saturation and heart rate fell unusually slowly. We give measures of the relative severity of VLAs and theoretical calculations that describe the rate of decrease of oxygen saturation. A clinical conclusion is that very long apnea (VLA) events with bradycardia and desaturation are not rare. Apnea alarms failed to activate for about one-third of VLAs. It appears that neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) personnel respond quickly to bradycardia alarms but not consistently to apnea alarms. We speculate that more reliable apnea detection systems would improve patient safety in the NICU. A physiological conclusion is that the slow decrease of oxygen saturation is consistent with a physiological model based on assumed high values of initial oxygen saturation.

External validation in an intermediate unit of a respiratory decompensation model trained in an intensive care unit

Background. Preventing urgent intubation and upgrade in level of care in patients with subclinical deterioration could be of great utility in hospitalized patients. Early detection should result in decreased mortality, duration of stay, and/or resource use. The goal of this study was to externally validate a previously developed, vital sign‐based, intensive care unit, respiratory instability model on a separate population, intermediate care patients. Methods. From May 2014 to May 2016, the model calculated relative risk of adverse events every 15 minutes (n = 373,271 observations) for 2,050 patients in a surgical intermediate care unit. Results. We identified 167 upgrades and 57 intubations. The performance of the model for predicting upgrades within 12 hours was highly significant with an area under the curve of 0.693 (95% confidence interval, 0.658–0.724). The model was well calibrated with relative risks in the highest and lowest deciles of 2.99 and 0.45, respectively (a 6.6‐fold increase). The model was effective at predicting intubation, with a demonstrated area under the curve within 12 hours of the event of 0.748 (95% confidence interval, 0.685–0.800). The highest and lowest deciles of observed relative risk were 3.91 and 0.39, respectively (a 10.1‐fold increase). Univariate analysis of vital signs showed that transfer upgrades were associated, in order of importance, with rising respiration rate, rising heart rate, and falling pulse‐oxygen saturation level. Conclusion. The respiratory instability model developed previously is valid in intermediate care patients to predict both urgent intubations and requirements for upgrade in level of care to an intensive care unit.

Identifying the low risk patient in surgical intensive and intermediate care units using continuous monitoring

Background. Continuous predictive monitoring has been employed successfully to predict subclinical adverse events. Should low values on these models, however, reassure us that a patient will not have an adverse outcome? Negative predictive values of such models could help predict safe patient discharge. The goal of this study was to validate the negative predictive value of an ensemble model for critical illness (using previously developed models for respiratory instability, hemorrhage, and sepsis) based on bedside monitoring data in the intensive care units and intermediate care unit. Methods. We calculated the relative risk of 3 critical illnesses for all patients every 15 minutes (n = 124,588) for 2,924 patients downgraded from the surgical intensive care units and intermediate care unit between May 2014 to May 2016. We constructed an ensemble model to estimate at the time of intensive care units or intermediate care unit discharge the probability of favorable outcome after downgrade. Results. Outputs form the ensemble model stratified patients by risk of favorable and bad outcomes in both intensive care units/intermediate care unit; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = .639/.629 respectively for favorable outcomes and .645/.641 for adverse events. These performance characteristics are commensurate with published models for predicting readmission. The ensemble model remained a statistically significant predictor after adjusting for hospital duration of stay and admitting service. The rate of favorable outcome in the highest and lowest deciles in the intensive care units were 76.2% and 27.3% (2.8‐fold decrease) and 88.3% and 33.2% in the intermediate care unit (2.7‐fold decrease), respectively. Conclusion. An ensemble model for critical illness predicts favorable outcome after downgrade and safe patient discharge (hospital stay <7 days, no readmission, upgrade, or death).

Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants.

A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm-stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events-may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge.