Matthew Wiswall

How do College Students Respond to Public Information about Earnings

Expectations are important determinants of decisions made under uncertainty, and if individuals’ expectations are biased, they can make suboptimal choices. This paper uses a unique “information” experiment in which we provide college students true information about the population distribution of earnings. We find that college students are substantially misinformed about population earnings and revise their earnings beliefs in a sensible way in response to the information. The specificity and informativeness of the signal matters for updating. There is, however, substantial heterogeneity in students’ updating heuristics. We also find that students revise their intended major in response to the information.

Evolution of Gender Differences in Post-Secondary Human Capital Investments: College Majors

Although women in the United States now complete more college degrees than men, the distribution of college majors among college graduates remains unequal, with women about two‐thirds as likely as men to major in business or science. We develop and estimate a dynamic, overlapping generations model of human capital investments and labor supply. We allow for specific college major choices, instead of aggregating these choices to the education level. Results show that changes in skill prices, higher schooling costs, and gender‐specific changes in home value were each important to the long‐term trends.

Beyond LATE with a Discrete Instrument

We show how a discrete instrument can be used to identify the marginal treatment effects under a functional structure that allows for treatment heterogeneity among individuals with the same observed characteristics and self-selection based on the unobserved gain from treatment. Guided by this identification result, we perform a marginal treatment effect analysis of the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. Our estimates reveal that the family size effects vary in magnitude and even sign and that families act as if they possess some knowledge of the idiosyncratic effects in the fertility decision.

Testing the quantity–quality model of fertility: Estimation using unrestricted family size models

We examine the relationship between child quantity and quality. Motivated by the theoretical ambiguity regarding the sign of the marginal effects of additional siblings on childrens outcomes, our empirical model allows for an unrestricted relationship between family size and child outcomes. We find that the conclusion in Black, Devereux, and Salvanes (2005) of no family size effect does not hold after relaxing their linear specification in family size. We find nonzero effects of family size in ordinary least squares estimation with controls for confounding characteristics like birth order and in instrumental variables estimation instrumenting family size with twin births. Estimation using a unrestricted specification for the quality–quantity relationship yields substantial family size effects. This finding suggests that social policies that provide incentives for fertility should account for spillover effects on existing children.

Risk Aversion and Support for Merit Pay: Theory and Evidence from Minnesota's Q Comp Program

Recent research attributes the lack of merit pay in teaching to the resistance of teachers. This article examines whether the structure of merit pay affects the types of teachers who support it. We develop a model of the relative utility teachers receive from merit pay versus the current fixed schedule of raises. We show that if teachers are risk averse, teachers with higher base salaries would be more likely to support a merit pay program that allows them to keep their current base salary and risk only future salary increases. We test the predictions of the model using data from a new merit pay program, the Minnesota Q Comp program, which requires the approval of the teachers in each school district. Consistent with the models predictions, we find that districts with higher base salaries and a higher proportion of teachers with masters degrees are more likely to approve merit pay.

Does Small High School Reform Lift Urban Districts? Evidence From New York City

Research finds that small high schools deliver better outcomes than large high schools for urban students. An important outstanding question is whether this better performance is gained at the expense of losses elsewhere: Does small school reform lift the whole district? We explore New York City’s small high school reform in which hundreds of new small high schools were built in less than a decade. We use rich individual student data on four cohorts of New York City high school students and estimate effects of schools on student outcomes. Our results suggest that the introduction of small schools improved outcomes for students in all types of schools: large, small, continuously operating, and new. Small school reform lifted all boats.