Matthias Huss

Determination of the seasonal mass balance of four Alpine glaciers since 1865

Alpine glaciers have suffered major losses of ice in the last century. We compute spatially distributed seasonal mass balances of four glaciers in the Swiss Alps (Grosser Aletschgletscher, Rhonegletscher, Griesgletscher and Silvrettagletscher) for the period 1865 to 2006. The mass balance model is forced by daily air temperature and precipitation data compiled from various long-term data series. The model is calibrated using ice volume changes derived from five to nine high-resolution digital elevation models, annual discharge data and a newly compiled data set of more than 4000 in situ measurements of mass balance covering different subperiods. The cumulative mass balances over the 142 year period vary between -35 and -97 m revealing a considerable mass loss. There is no significant trend in winter balances, whereas summer balances display important fluctuations. The rate of mass loss in the 1940s was higher than in the last decade. Our approach combines different types of field data with mass balance modeling to resolve decadal scale ice volume change observations to seasonal and spatially distributed mass balance series. The results contribute to a better understanding of the climatic forcing on Alpine glaciers in the last century.

Ice-volume changes of selected glaciers in the Swiss Alps since the end of the 19th century

Abstract The evolution of surface topography of glaciers in the Swiss Alps is well documented with high-resolution aerial photographs repeatedly recorded since the 1960s and further back in time with topographic maps including elevation contour lines first surveyed in the mid-19th century. In order to quantify and interpret glacier changes in the Swiss Alps, time series of volume changes over the last 100–150 years have been collected. The available datasets provide a detailed spatial resolution for the retreat period since the end of the Little Ice Age. The spatial distribution as well as temporal variations of the thickness change were analyzed. A significant ice loss since the end of the 19th century was observed in the ablation area, while the changes in the accumulation area were small. We found moderate negative secular rates until the 1960s, followed by steady to positive rates for about two decades and strong ice loss starting in the 1980s which has lasted until the present. An evaluation of 19 glaciers revealed a total ice volume loss of about 13km3 since the 1870s, of which 8.7 km3 occurred since the 1920s and 3.5 km3 since 1980. Decadal mean net balance rates for the periods 1920–60, 1960–80 and 1980–present are –0.29, –0.03 and –0.53ma–1w.e., respectively.

100-year mass changes in the Swiss Alps linked to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Thirty new 100-year records of glacier surface mass balance, accumulation and melt in the Swiss Alps are presented. The time series are based on a comprehensive set of field data and distributed modeling and provide insights into the glacier-climate linkage. Considerable mass loss over the 20th century is evident for all glaciers, but rates differ strongly. Glacier mass loss shows multidecadal variations and was particularly rapid in the 1940s and since the 1980s. Mass balance is significantly anticorrelated to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index assumed to be linked to thermohaline ocean circulation. We show that North Atlantic variability had a recognizable impact on glacier changes in the Swiss Alps for at least 250 years. Citation: Huss, M., R. Hock, A. Bauder, and M. Funk (2010), 100-year mass changes in the Swiss Alps linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10501, doi:.

Homogenization of long-term mass-balance time series

Abstract The re-analysis of long-term mass-balance time series is important to provide bias-corrected mass-balance data for climate-change impact studies. A method to homogenize time series of comprehensive mass-balance monitoring programmes is presented and applied to the nearly 50 year mass-balance records of Griesgletscher and Silvrettagletscher, Switzerland. Using a distributed mass-balance model in daily resolution we correct the mass-balance data for varying observation dates. Direct point measurements are combined with independent geodetic mass changes, a prerequisite for a thorough homogenization of mass-balance records. Differences between mass balance evaluated in the hydrological year or according to the measurement period and the stratigraphic system are analysed and may be up to ±0.5mw.e. a − 1. Cumulative mass balance of both glaciers based on the glaciological method generally agrees well with geodetic mass change on the investigated glaciers. However, for Silvretta-gletscher a significant bias of +0.37mw.e. a − 1 has been detected and corrected for since 1994.

A new model for global glacier change and sea-level rise

The anticipated retreat of glaciers around the globe will pose far-reaching challenges to the management of fresh water resources and significantly contribute to sea-level rise within the coming decades. Here, we present a new model for calculating the 21st century mass changes of all glaciers on Earth outside the ice sheets. The Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM) includes mass loss due to frontal ablation at marine-terminating glacier fronts and accounts for glacier advance/retreat and surface Elevation changes. Simulations are driven with monthly near-surface air temperature and precipitation from 14 Global Circulation Models forced by the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Depending on the scenario, the model yields a global glacier volume loss of 25-48% between 2010 and 2100. For calculating glacier contribution to sea-level rise, we account for ice located below sea-level presently displacing ocean water. This effect reduces glacier contribution by 11-14%, so that our model predicts a sea-level equivalent (multi-model mean +-1 standard deviation) of 79+-24 mm (RCP2.6), 108+-28 mm (RCP4.5) and 157+-31 mm (RCP8.5). Mass losses by frontal ablation account for 10% of total ablation globally, and up to 30% regionally. Regional equilibrium line altitudes are projected to rise by 100-800 m until 2100, but the effect on ice wastage depends on initial glacier hypsometries.

Robust changes and sources of uncertainty in the projected hydrological regimes of Swiss catchments

Projections of discharge are key for future water resources management. These projections are subject to uncertainties, which are difficult to handle in the decision process on adaptation strategies. Uncertainties arise from different sources such as the emission scenarios, the climate models and their postprocessing, the hydrological models, and the natural variability. Here we present a detailed and quantitative uncertainty assessment, based on recent climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2011 data set) and covering catchments representative for midlatitude alpine areas. This study relies on a particularly wide range of discharge projections resulting from the factorial combination of 3 emission scenarios, 10–20 regional climate models, 2 postprocessing methods, and 3 hydrological models of different complexity. This enabled us to decompose the uncertainty in the ensemble of projections using analyses of variance (ANOVA). We applied the same modeling setup to six catchments to assess the influence of catchment characteristics on the projected streamflow, and focused on changes in the annual discharge cycle. The uncertainties captured by our setup originate mainly from the climate models and natural climate variability, but the choice of emission scenario plays a large role by the end of the 21st century. The contribution of the hydrological models to the projection uncertainty varied strongly with catchment elevation. The discharge changes were compared to the estimated natural decadal variability, which revealed that a climate change signal emerges even under the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6) by the end of the century. Limiting emissions to RCP2.6 levels would nevertheless reduce the largest regime changes by the end of the century by approximately a factor of two, in comparison to impacts projected for the high emission scenario SRES A2. We finally show that robust regime changes emerge despite the projection uncertainty. These changes are significant and are consistent across a wide range of scenarios and catchments. We propose their identification as a way to aid decision making under uncertainty.

Glacier-dammed lake outburst events of Gornersee, Switzerland

Gornersee, Switzerland, is an ice-marginal lake, which drains almost every year, subglacially, within a few days. We present an analysis of the lake outburst events between 1950 and 2005, as well as results of detailed field investigations related to the lake drainage in 2004 and 2005. The latter include measurements of lake geometry, water pressure in nearby boreholes and glacier surface motion. A distributed temperature-index melt model coupled to a linear-reservoir runoff model is used to calculate hourly discharge from the catchment of Gornergletscher in order to distinguish between the melt/precipitation component and the outburst component of the discharge hydrograph. In this way, drainage volume and timing are determined. From 1950 there is a clear trend for the outburst flood to occur earlier in the melt season, but there is no trend in lake discharge volumes. Peak discharges from the lake lie significantly below the values obtained using the empirical relation proposed by Clague and Mathews (1973). The shapes of the 2004 and 2005 lake outflow hydrographs differ substantially, suggesting different drainage mechanisms. From water balance considerations we infer a leakage of the glacier-dammed lake in 2005, starting 1 week prior to the lake outburst. During the drainage events, up to half of the lake water is temporarily stored in the glacial system, causing substantial uplift of the glacier surface.

Numerical simulation of Rhonegletscher from 1874 to 2100

Due to climatic change, many Alpine glaciers have significantly retreated during the last century. In this study we perform the numerical simulation of the temporal and spatial change of Rhonegletscher, Swiss Alps, from 1874 to 2007, and from 2007 to 2100. Given the shape of the glacier, the velocity of ice u is obtained by solving a 3D nonlinear Stokes problem with a nonlinear sliding law along the bedrock-ice interface. The shape of the glacier is updated by computing the volume fraction of ice @f, which satisfies a transport equation. The accumulation due to snow fall and the ablation due to melting is accounted by adding a source term to the transport equation. A decoupling algorithm allows the two above problems to be solved using different numerical techniques. The nonlinear Stokes problem is solved on a fixed, unstructured finite element mesh consisting of tetrahedrons. The transport equation is solved using a fixed, structured grid of smaller cells. The numerical simulation, from 1874 to 2007, is validated against measurements. Afterwards, three different climatic scenarios are considered in order to predict the shape of Rhonegletscher until 2100. A dramatic retreat of Rhonegletscher during the 21st century is anticipated. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the impact of climatic change on mountain glaciers.

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.

The New Swiss Glacier Inventory SGI2010: Relevance of Using High-Resolution Source Data in Areas Dominated by Very Small Glaciers

Abstract In view of the rapid and accelerating glacier retreat observed in the European Alps during the last decades, the repeated creation of glacier inventories is important to understand the spatio-temporal variability of glacier changes and to support modeling studies. This article presents the latest glacier inventory for the entire Swiss Alps (SGI2010) derived by manual digitization from high-resolution (25 cm) aerial orthophotographs acquired between 2008 and 2011. Its accuracy is assessed by comparing the extents of clean, snow-and/or debris-covered glaciers derived from multiple digitization by several experts. The potential of more precise mapping of debris-covered glaciers is pointed out through the combination of aerial orthophotos with Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) techniques. In order to investigate the accuracy of glacier outlines obtained from medium-resolution satellite remote sensing imagery, a Landsat derived 2003 inventory is directly compared to all glaciers of the eastern Swiss Alps mapped with 2003 aerial orthoimagery. For the Swiss Alps, the total glacierized area mapped for 2010 is 944.3 ±24.1 km2. Resulting area changes are -362.6 km2 (-27.7%, or -0.75% a-1) between 1973 and 2010. It is shown that satellite remote sensing techniques using medium-resolution source data misclassified more than 25% in area of very small glaciers (<0.5 km2). Therefore, use of high-resolution satellite or airborne imagery for future inventory creation in areas dominated by very small glaciers is recommended.