Matthias Vanmaercke

Moderate seismic activity affects contemporary sediment yields

Current models aiming to simulate contemporary sediment yield (SY) implicitly assume that tectonic effects are either irrelevant or are reflected by catchment topography. In this study we analyse the relation between SY and seismic activity, a component of tectonic processes. Results show a spatial correlation between SY and seismic activity expressed as the estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) with a 10% exceedance probability in 50 years. PGA has a significant impact on the spatial variation of SY, even after correcting for cross-correlations with topography, lithology or other factors that may influence SY. Based on three distinct data sets, we demonstrate that this effect is significant both for small catchments in Europe (0.3–3940 km2) and for large river systems worldwide (1580–6.15×106 km2) and that seismic activity may be even more important for explaining regional variation in SY than land use or many other commonly considered factors (e.g. catchment area, climate). We show that explicitly considering seismic activity may lead to SY-estimates that easily deviate a factor 2 or more compared to estimates that do not consider seismic activity. This is not only the case for highly seismically active regions: also in regions with a weak to moderate seismic regime seismic activity helps explaining regional patterns in SY. We argue that these findings have important implications for a better understanding of SY and its sensitivity to human impacts, as well as for our comprehension of sediment fluxes at longer timescales.