Matthieu Ferry

Active tectonics of the eastern Himalaya: New constraints from the first tectonic geomorphology study in southern Bhutan

How convergent systems distribute strain among frontal thrusts is a major concern regarding seismic hazard assessment. Along the 2500 km Himalayan arc, the seismic behavior of the Bhutan region is unknown, because it corresponds to the only portion of the arc where no evidence of major earthquakes has been reported. This can be due either to the fact that no active tectonic studies have been conducted or to continental shortening being absorbed by the Shillong plateau 150 km farther south. Analyzing offset fluvial terraces in south-central Bhutan shows that two major earthquakes ruptured the Himalayan frontal thrust during the last millennium, and that a comparable rate of Holocene deformation (∼20 mm/yr) is accommodated across the Himalaya in Bhutan as in central Nepal. Thus, the propensity for great earthquakes in Bhutan is similar to what is observed in neighboring portions of the Himalaya arc. This in turn suggests that the shortening process beneath the Shillong plateau has little effect on how strain accumulates within the Bhutanese Himalaya.

Palaeoseismology of the North Anatolian Fault near the Marmara Sea: implications for fault segmentation and seismic hazard

Abstract We conducted palaeoseismic studies along the North Anatolian fault both east and west of the Marmara Sea to evaluate its recent surface rupture history in relation to the well-documented historical record of earthquakes in the region, and to assess the hazard of this major fault to the city of Istanbul, one of the largest cities in the Middle East. Across the 1912 rupture of the Ganos strand of the North Anatolian fault west of the Marmara Sea, we excavated 26 trenches to resolve slip and constrain the earthquake history on a channel–fan complex that crosses the fault at a high angle. A distinctive, well-sorted fine sand channel that served as a marker unit was exposed in 21 trenches totaling over 300 m in length. Isopach mapping shows that the sand is channelized north of the fault, and flowed as an overflow fan complex across a broad fault scarp to the south. Realignment of the feeder channel thalweg to the fan apex required about 9±1 m of reconstruction. Study of the rupture history in several exposures demonstrates that this displacement occurred as two large events. Analysis of radiocarbon dates places the age of the sand channel as post ad 1655, so we attribute the two surface ruptures to the large regional earthquakes of 1766 and 1912. If each was similar in size, then about 4–5 m of slip can be attributed to each event, consistent with that reported for 1912 farther east. We also found evidence for two additional surface ruptures after about ad 900, which probably correspond to the large regional earthquakes of 1063 and 1344 (or 1354). These observations suggest fairly periodic occurrence of large earthquakes (RI=c. 283±113 years) for the past millennium, and a rate of c. 16 mm/a if all events experienced similar slip. We excavated six trenches at two sites along the 1999 Izmit rupture to study the past earthquake history along that segment of the North Anatolian fault. One site, located in the township of Köseköy east of Izmit, revealed evidence for three surface ruptures (including 1999) during the past 400 years. The other trench was sited in an Ottoman canal that was excavated (but never completed) in 1591. There is evidence for three large surface rupturing events in the upper 2 m of alluvial fill within the canal at that site, located only a few kilometres from the Köseköy site. One of the past events is almost certainly the large earthquake of 1719, for which historical descriptions of damage are nearly identical to that of 1999. Other earthquakes that could plausibly be attributed to the other recognized rupture of the Izmit segment are the 1754, 1878 or 1894 events, all of which produced damage in the region and for which the source faults are poorly known. Our palaeoseismic observations suggest that the Izmit segment of the North Anatolia fault ruptures every one and a half centuries or so, consistent with the historical record for the region, although the time between ruptures may be as short as 35 years if 1754 broke the Izmit segment. Release of about 4 m of seismic slip both west and east of the Marmara Sea this past century (1912, 1999) support the contention that Istanbul is at high risk from a pending large earthquake. In that historical records suggest that the last large central Marmara Sea event occurred in 1766, there may be a similar 4 m of accumulated strain across the Marmara basin segment of the North Anatolian fault.

Ground-penetrating radar investigations along the North Anatolian fault near Izmit, Turkey: Constraints on the right-lateral movement and slip history

We analyze ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiles made across and parallel to the August 1999 earthquake ruptures of the North Anatolian fault in Turkey. The profiles document cumulative right-lateral offset of stream channels and the successive faulting of a medieval (Ottoman) canal. The dominance of fine sand to coarse gravel in the sections imaged allows for reasonably deep penetration, and processed radar signals clearly image visible reflectors within the uppermost 5 m. Near Kosekoy, buried fluvial-channel deposits, exposed in some trenches dug to determine paleoseismicity, are also visible on profiles and show a maximum 6.7–7.4 m of lateral displacement. Younger channel units display 4.5–4.9 m of right-lateral displacement at 2–3 m depth and show that the penultimate rupture along the Izmit segment produced a similar amount of displacement as in 1999. At the Ottoman canal site, GPR profiles complement a trench study and provide consistent results showing the occurrence of three faulting events after A.D. 1591, the date of canal construction. This study demonstrates that the use of GPR method in paleoseismology contributes to better identification of cumulative slip along active faults.

Evidence for a wide and gently dipping Main Himalayan Thrust in western Bhutan

The Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is the source of great earthquakes that have been documented along the range. Its geometry is a key parameter that influences accommodation of tectonic loading and earthquake magnitudes along the Himalayan Arc. Although seismic images are available for both the western and the central part of the range, this geometry remains poorly constrained for the Bhutanese Himalayas. Here we address this issue using a 10Be cosmogenic nuclides denudation transect across western Bhutan. We observe a wide low denudation rate domain between 50 km and 110 km from the front followed by a strong northward increase. Using a joint inversion of denudation rates, GPS data, and Holocene uplift rates, we interpret this pattern as a consequence of a flat-ramp transition along the MHT. Compared to central Nepal and Sikkim, this location of the ramp suggests a wider decollement, with implications for greater seismogenic potential of the MHT in western Bhutan.

First paleoseismic evidence for great surface-rupturing earthquakes in the Bhutan Himalayas

The seismic behavior of the Himalayan arc between central Nepal and Arunachal Pradesh remains poorly understood due to the lack of observations concerning the timing and size of past major and great earthquakes in Bhutan. We present here the first paleoseismic study along the Himalayan topographic front conducted at two sites in southern central Bhutan. Paleoseismological excavations and related OxCal modeling reveal that Bhutan experienced at least two great earthquakes in the last millennium: one between the seventeenth and eighteenth century and one during medieval times, producing a total cumulative vertical offset greater than 10 m. Along with previous studies that reported similar medieval events in Central Nepal, Sikkim, and Assam, our investigations support the occurrence of either (i) a series of great earthquakes between A.D. 1025 and A.D. 1520 or (ii) a single giant earthquake between A.D. 1090 and A.D. 1145. In the latter case, the surface rupture may have reached a total length of ~800 km and could be associated with an earthquake of magnitude Mw = 8.7–9.1.

Geologic Inheritance and Earthquake Rupture Processes: The 1905 M ≥ 8 Tsetserleg‐Bulnay Strike‐Slip Earthquake Sequence, Mongolia

In 1905, 14 days apart, two M ~ 8 continental strike‐slip earthquakes, the Tsetserleg and Bulnay earthquakes, occurred on the Bulnay fault system, in Mongolia. Together, they ruptured four individual faults, with a total length of ~676 km. Using submetric optical satellite images “Pleiades” with ground resolution of 0.5 m, complemented by field observation, we mapped in detail the entire surface rupture associated with this earthquake sequence. Surface rupture along the main Bulnay fault is ~388 km in length, striking nearly E‐W. The rupture is formed by a series of fault segments that are 29 km long on average, separated by geometric discontinuities. Although there is a difference of about 2 m in the average slip between the western and eastern parts of the Bulnay rupture, along‐fault slip variations are overall limited, resulting in a smooth slip distribution, except for local slip deficit at segment boundaries. We show that damage, including short branches and secondary faulting, associated with the rupture propagation, occurred significantly more often along the western part of the Bulnay rupture, while the eastern part of the rupture appears more localized and thus possibly structurally simpler. Eventually, the difference of slip between the western and eastern parts of the rupture is attributed to this difference of rupture localization, associated at first order with a lateral change in the local geology. Damage associated to rupture branching appears to be located asymmetrically along the extensional side of the strike‐slip rupture and shows a strong dependence on structural geologic inheritance.

The shape of watersheds

Since the 1950s river networks have been intensely researched in geosciences and hydrology. This led to the definition of scaling laws that described the organisation of landscapes under fluvial incision and were later explored by statistical physics and fractal mathematics. The emblematic Hack’s Law proposes a power-law relationship between watershed area and main stream length. Though extensively documented, a wide range of values is still reported for Hack’s parameters. Some authors associate this dispersion to local geologic and climatic conditions. Here based on the analysis of large sets of river basins in various climatic and geological settings, we confirm the geometric similarity of river networks. We demonstrate that basin shape is mostly related to Hack’s coefficient and not to the exponent, independently of external forcing such as lithology and pluviometry.River networks worldwide follow the emblematic Hack’s Law, which expresses the length of a stream as a function of its watershed area. Here the authors show this law does not depend on lithology or rainfall, but on the shape of watersheds and confirms the self-similarity of river networks.