Matthieu Llorca

SO2 emissions and the environmental Kuznets curve: the case of Chinese provinces

This paper aims at estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for the sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions in a panel of 28 Chinese provinces. First, using a fixed effects model, econometric findings reveal an N shape EKC with a turning point of 4500 yuans (index 1990). However, a Chow test reveals a break in 1995, so that the estimation of the model indicates an increasing linear relationship between GDP per capita and SO2 emissions. The previous results imply that the decrease of the Chinese sulphur dioxide emissions during 1996–1999 did not result from the ECK but from an exogenous public action.

Debt sustainability in the EU New Member States: empirical evidence from a panel of eight Central and East European countries

This article aims to assess the sustainability of fiscal policies in a panel of eight EU New Member States, namely Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. First, using panel data unit-root tests, econometric findings show that the variables public expenditure and revenue are not stationary. However, employing panel cointegration tests, it is found that government spending and revenue are cointegrated. This implies that fiscal policies in these countries are sustainable in the long run, i.e. they are consistent with inter-temporal budget balance in accordance with the present-value approach. Finally, these results are confirmed if we exclude the countries with sound public finances, namely the three Baltic States and Slovenia: we obtain the same conclusion with a panel comprising Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland and the Slovak Republic.