Matti Kummu

Lost food, wasted resources: global food supply chain losses and their impacts on freshwater, cropland, and fertiliser use.

Reducing food losses and waste is considered to be one of the most promising measures to improve food security in the coming decades. Food losses also affect our use of resources, such as freshwater, cropland, and fertilisers. In this paper we estimate the global food supply losses due to lost and wasted food crops, and the resources used to produce them. We also quantify the potential food supply and resource savings that could be made by reducing food losses and waste. We used publically available global databases to conduct the study at the country level. We found that around one quarter of the produced food supply (614 kcal/cap/day) is lost within the food supply chain (FSC). The production of these lost and wasted food crops accounts for 24% of total freshwater resources used in food crop production (27 m(3)/cap/yr), 23% of total global cropland area (31 × 10(-3)ha/cap/yr), and 23% of total global fertiliser use (4.3 kg/cap/yr). The per capita use of resources for food losses is largest in North Africa & West-Central Asia (freshwater and cropland) and North America & Oceania (fertilisers). The smallest per capita use of resources for food losses is found in Sub-Saharan Africa (freshwater and fertilisers) and in Industrialised Asia (cropland). Relative to total food production, the smallest food supply and resource losses occur in South & Southeast Asia. If the lowest loss and waste percentages achieved in any region in each step of the FSC could be reached globally, food supply losses could be halved. By doing this, there would be enough food for approximately one billion extra people. Reducing the food losses and waste would thus be an important step towards increased food security, and would also increase the efficiency of resource use in food production.

Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon? Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia

In this letter we analyse the temporal development of physical population-driven water scarcity, i.e. water shortage, over the period 0 AD to 2005 AD. This was done using population data derived from the HYDE dataset, and water resource availability based on the WaterGAP model results for the period 1961‐90. Changes in historical water resources availability were simulated with the STREAM model, forced by climate output data of the ECBilt‐CLIO‐VECODE climate model. The water crowding index, i.e. Falkenmark water stress indicator, was used to identify water shortage in 284 sub-basins. Although our results show a few areas with moderate water shortage (1000‐1700 m 3 /capita/yr) around the year 1800, water shortage began in earnest at around 1900, when 2% of the world population was under chronic water shortage (<1000 m 3 /capita/yr). By 1960, this percentage had risen to 9%. From then on, the number of people under water shortage increased rapidly to the year 2005, by which time 35% of the world population lived in areas with chronic water shortage. In this study, the effects of changes in population on water shortage are roughly four times more important than changes in water availability as a result of long-term climatic change. Global trends in adaptation measures to cope with reduced water resources per capita, such as irrigated area, reservoir storage, groundwater abstraction, and global trade of agricultural products, closely follow the recent increase in global water shortage.

Impact of the Mekong River Flow Alteration on the Tonle Sap Flood Pulse

Abstract Rapid development in the upper reaches of the Mekong River, in the form of construction of large hydropower dams and reservoirs, large irrigation schemes, and rapid urban development, is putting water resources under stress. Recent studies have concluded that these developments will lead to flow alterations in the Mekong River. These flow alterations would threaten the sensitive ecosystems downstream, particularly Tonle Sap River, Tonle Sap Lake, its floodplain, and its gallery forest and protected areas, by changing the flood-pulse system of the lake. This article estimates the changes in parameters of the Tonle Sap flood pulse due to the aforementioned flow alterations. The impacts on the flooded area and loss of gallery forest and protected areas were analyzed using geographic information system–based methods. Relatively small rises in the dry-season lake water level would permanently inundate disproportionately large areas of floodplain, rendering it inaccessible to floodplain vegetation and eroding the productivity basis of the ecosystem. It is highly important to maintain the natural hydrological pattern of the Mekong River, particularly the dry-season water levels, to preserve Tonle Sap Lakes ecosystem productivity.

From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability

Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965–2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d) has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (<2000 kcal/cap/d) has dropped from 52% to 3%. Largest improvements are seen in the MENA region, Latin America, China and Southeast Asia. Besides, the composition of diets has changed considerably within the study period: the world population living with high supply of animal source food (>15% of dietary energy supply) increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d) has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.

How Close Do We Live to Water? A Global Analysis of Population Distance to Freshwater Bodies

Traditionally, people have inhabited places with ready access to fresh water. Today, over 50% of the global population lives in urban areas, and water can be directed via tens of kilometres of pipelines. Still, however, a large part of the worlds population is directly dependent on access to natural freshwater sources. So how are inhabited places related to the location of freshwater bodies today? We present a high-resolution global analysis of how close present-day populations live to surface freshwater. We aim to increase the understanding of the relationship between inhabited places, distance to surface freshwater bodies, and climatic characteristics in different climate zones and administrative regions. Our results show that over 50% of the worlds population lives closer than 3 km to a surface freshwater body, and only 10% of the population lives further than 10 km away. There are, however, remarkable differences between administrative regions and climatic zones. Populations in Australia, Asia, and Europe live closest to water. Although populations in arid zones live furthest away from freshwater bodies in absolute terms, relatively speaking they live closest to water considering the limited number of freshwater bodies in those areas. Population distributions in arid zones show statistically significant relationships with a combination of climatic factors and distance to water, whilst in other zones there is no statistically significant relationship with distance to water. Global studies on development and climate adaptation can benefit from an improved understanding of these relationships between human populations and the distance to fresh water.

Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

Significance El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects hydrological processes around the globe. However, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of flooding (i.e., flood risk). We present, to our knowledge, the first global assessment of ENSO’s influence on flood risk in terms of economic damage and exposed population and gross domestic product. We show that reliable flood risk anomalies exist during ENSO years in basins spanning almost half of Earth’s surface. These results are significant for flood-risk management. Because ENSO can be predicted with lead times of several seasons with some skill, the findings pave the way for developing probabilistic flood-risk projections. These could be used for improved disaster planning, such as temporarily increasing food and medicine stocks by relief agencies. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

Diet change—a solution to reduce water use?

Water and land resources are under increasing pressure in many parts of the globe. Diet change has been suggested as a measure to contribute to adequate food security for the growing population. This paper assesses the impact of diet change on the blue and green water footprints of food consumption. We first compare the water consumption of the current diets with that of a scenario where dietary guidelines are followed. Then, we assess these footprints by applying four scenarios in which we gradually limit the amount of protein from animal products to 50%, 25%, 12.5% and finally 0% of the total protein intake. We find that the current water use at the global scale would be sufficient to secure a recommended diet and worldwide energy intake. Reducing the animal product contribution in the diet would decrease global green water consumption by 6%, 11%, 15% and 21% within the four applied scenarios, while for blue water, the reductions would be 4%, 6%, 9% and 14%. In Latin America, Europe, Central and Eastern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, diet change mainly reduces green water use, while in the Middle East region, North America, Australia and Oceania, both blue and green water footprints decrease considerably. At the same time, in South and Southeast Asia, diet change does not result in decreased water use. Our results show that reducing animal products in the human diet offers the potential to save water resources, up to the amount currently required to feed 1.8 billion additional people globally; however, our results show that the adjustments should be considered on a local level.

Ecosystem Management of the Tonle Sap Lake: An Integrated Modelling Approach

The monsoon floods of the Mekong River are a key driver of the Tonle Sap Lake ecosystem. This pulsing system together with a large floodplain, rich biodiversity and high annual sedimentation and nutrient fluxes from the Mekong makes the lake one of the most productive fresh water ecosystems in the world. The livelihoods of people living in and around the Tonle Sap are strongly dependent on the lakes natural resources. An integrated modelling system, supported with primary data collection and analysis, has been developed for the Tonle Sap to assess the impacts of planned developments on the lakes ecosystem and riparian communities. Understanding the ecosystem processes and tools for predicting the development impacts are essential for Integrated Water Resources Management, as well as for sustainable basin-wide planning, and national and regional policy-making.

Water Resource Models in the Mekong Basin: A Review

Development of the water resources of the Mekong Basin is the subject of intense debate both within the Mekong region and internationally. Water resources modelling is playing an increasingly important role in the debate, with significant effort in building integrated modelling platforms to describe the hydrological, ecological, social and economic impacts of water resource development. In the hydrological domain, a comprehensive set of models has been effective in building understanding of the system, and in identifying and describing the issues and trade-offs involved in basin-scale water planning. In the ecological and social domains, quantitative modelling has not progressed very far; geo-spatial analysis and qualitative frameworks remain the most commonly used tools. Economic models have been used to assess the costs and benefits of water resources development and to describe the trade-offs between different sectors and users. These analyses are likely to play an important role in the policy and planning debate, but are hampered by uncertainties in valuation of ecosystem services. Future efforts should focus on optimising the use of existing model platforms for the Mekong, including structured comparison of multiple hydrological models to quantify errors and identify an optimum set of modelling tools for different applications. A comprehensive research effort is needed to incorporate groundwater into hydrological models for regional planning. Options for social impact assessment should be reassessed before major investments are made in complex modelling platforms, and participatory social survey methods evaluated as part of an integrated assessment framework.

Quantifying changes in flooding and habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake (Cambodia) caused by water infrastructure development and climate change in the Mekong Basin

The economic value of the Tonle Sap Lake Floodplain to Cambodia is arguably among the highest provided to a nation by a single ecosystem around the world. Nonetheless, the Mekong River Basin is changing rapidly due to accelerating water infrastructure development (hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and water supply) and climate change, bringing considerable modifications to the flood pulse of the Tonle Sap Lake in the foreseeable future. This paper presents research conducted to determine how the historical flooding regime, together with human action, influenced landscape patterns of habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake, and how these habitats might shift as a result of hydrological changes. Maps of water depth, annual flood duration, and flood frequency were created for recent historical hydrological conditions and for simulated future scenarios of water infrastructure development and climate change. Relationships were then established between the historical flood maps and land cover, and these were subsequently applied to assess potential changes to habitat cover in future decades. Five habitat groups were clearly distinguishable based on flood regime, physiognomic patterns, and human activity: (1) Open water, flooded for 12 months in an average hydrological year; (2) Gallery forest, with flood duration of 9 months annually; (3) Seasonally flooded habitats, flooded 5-8 months and dominated by shrublands and grasslands; (4) transitional habitats, flooded 1-5 months and dominated by abandoned agricultural fields, receding rice/floating rice, and lowland grasslands; and (5) Rainfed habitats, flooded up to 1 month and consisting mainly of wet season rice fields and village crops. It was found that water infrastructure development could increase the area of open water (+18 to +21%) and the area of rainfed habitats (+10 to +14%), while reducing the area covered with seasonally flooded habitats (-13 to -22%) and gallery forest (-75 to -83%). Habitat cover shifts as a result of climate change include a net increase of open water (2-21%), as well as a reduction of rainfed habitats by 2-5% and seasonally flooded habitats by 5-11%. Findings from this study will help guide on-going and future conservation and restoration efforts throughout this unique and critical ecosystem.