Matti Suominen

Banking efficiency in the Nordic countries

Abstract Evidence of the relative competitiveness of the banking industries in three Nordic countries is provided, by applying Data Envelopment Analysis of productivity on the national and the pooled data sets. The analysis produces a detailed account of how well banks from different countries and different sizes may be prepared to meet the more intense competition of a common European banking market.

Corporate Governance, Finance, and the Real Sector

We present a theory of the linkages between corporate governance, corporate finance, and the real sector of an economy. Using a structural model of industry equilibrium with endogenous entry, we show that poor corporate governance leads to low levels of competition, and to firms with high insider ownership and leverage. In contrast, good corporate governance promotes the adoption of more efficient technologies and development of sectors more exposed to moral hazard. We use our model to study equity market liberalization, and we show that liberalizations facilitate entry and adoption of more productive technologies, especially in countries with good corporate governance.

A Structural Model of Short-Term Reversals

We present a structural model of the stock market where a subset of the investors is infrequently present at the market. In our model the stocks’ return reversal pattern is exponential and the amount of return reversal, the speed of return reversal and stock’s transitory volatility are all related to liquidity. In contrast to common perception, fast return reversal is typically a sign of inefficient, illiquid markets, thus not a sign of efficiency. Other results are that the stock’s return liquidity premium and the cost of immediacy to transitory investors are non-monotonic in several structural parameters of the model, such as the number of market makers. Based on the entire available return history for NYSE and Amex traded stocks, we find that, on average, 24% of NYSE and Amex traded stocks’ excess returns revert within a week, that the pattern of return reversal is exponential, and that nearly 20% of daily volatility is transitory. Both the speed of return reversal and the amount of transitory volatility depend on the stock’s liquidity: For illiquid stocks, return reversals are faster and a greater amount of the volatility, 27%, is transitory. Our estimates of the total costs of immediacy suffered by investors, as a percentage of stock’s market capitalization, are non-monotonic in stock’s liquidity.

Dash for Cash: Month-End Liquidity Needs and the Predictability of Stock Returns

We present broad-based evidence that the monthly payment cycle induces systematic patterns in liquid markets around the globe. First, we document temporary increases in the costs of debt and equity capital that coincide with key dates associated with month-end cash needs. Second, we present direct and indirect evidence on the role of institutions in the genesis of these patterns and derive estimates of the associated costs borne by market participants. Finally, we investigate the limits to arbitrage that prevent markets from functioning efficiently. Our results indicate that many investors and their agents, including mutual funds, suffer from liquidity-related trading.

Mutual Funds’ Returns from Providing Liquidity and Costs of Immediacy

We present evidence that some mutual funds systematically act as contrarian traders, and earn returns in the stock market by providing liquidity to investors that demand immediacy, while others systematically realize costs of immediacy. On average, the mutual funds’ costs of immediacy exceed their returns from providing liquidity. The funds with outflows, flows that correlate with industry flows, high market beta funds, and funds highly exposed to the momentum strategy suffer the most in costs of immediacy. The mutual funds’ average underperformance can be explained with their costs of immediacy. Finally, the funds’ historical costs of immediacy predict their alphas.

Hedge Funds, Misvaluation, and The HML Factor Returns

We measure misvaluation using the discounted residual income model of Ohlson (1990, 1995). We show that there are significant returns on a long-short portfolio that buys under- and sells short overvalued shares. These returns are highly correlated with the Fama and French HML factor returns and including the returns in a factor model yields the HML factor redundant. Misvaluation spread, defined as the difference in misvaluation between over- and undervalued shares, forecasts both the misvaluation portfolio’s and the HML factor returns. Hedge fund flows reduce the misvaluation spread and the expected returns on the misvaluation portfolio and the HML factor.

Industry equilibrium with outside financing and moral hazard: Implications for market integration

Abstract In this paper, we study industry equilibrium under the assumptions that (1) firms need outside financing and (2) they have a moral hazard problem in taking potentially excessive risks. We characterize an industry equilibrium with credit rationing, where firms choose not to take risks, and compare this to the industry equilibrium in the absence of credit rationing. In both cases, we show that competition increases and prices decline as markets integrate. However, in markets with credit rationing there is typically more exit, a smaller decline in prices and, most strikingly, the market value of the industry increases rather than decreases.

Cross-Asset Signals and Time Series Momentum

We document a new phenomenon in bond and equity markets that we call cross-asset time series momentum. Using data from 20 countries, we show that past bond market returns are positive predictors of future equity market returns, and past equity market returns are negative predictors of future bond market returns. We use this predictability to construct a diversified cross-asset time series momentum portfolio that yields a Sharpe ratio 45% higher than a standard time series momentum portfolio. We present evidence that time series momentum and cross-asset time series momentum are driven by slow-moving capital in bond and equity markets.

Slow Trading and Stock Return Predictability

The state of market returns positively predicts the size premium (or the difference in the return on small and large firms). A simple trading strategy that buys small firms and sells large firms following positive market return states, and switches to selling small firms and buying large firms after negative market states yields large, risk-adjusted monthly profits of 1.8%, 3.0% or 4.3% when rebalanced monthly, weekly or daily. Moreover, this predictability is also present in actively traded ETFs and in recent years. We uncover that trading patterns by institutional investors contribute to the predictability. Specifically, when rebalancing portfolios, institutional investors appear to execute trades in large-cap stocks swiftly, but are slower in trading small firms.

Industry Equilibrium With Outside Financing and Moral Hazard: Effects of Market Integration

In this paper we study industry equilibrium and the effects of integration under the assumptions that 1) firms must use outside financing and 2) they face a moral hazard problem due to the possibility of taking excessive risks. These are typical features of banking and insurance, for instance. We examine an industry equilibrium where firms choose not to take excessive risks and compare this with the equilibrium in industries that do not have a moral hazard problem. We show that, as markets integrate, competition intensifies and prices fall in both types of industry. In markets with moral hazard there are relatively more exits, a smaller fall in prices and, contrary to the other case, the market value of the industry increases.