Maureen D. Agnew

Sunlight exposure, antioxidants, and age-related macular degeneration

OBJECTIVE To examine the association of sunlight exposure and antioxidant level with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS Four thousand seven hundred fifty-three participants aged 65 years or older in the European Eye Study underwent fundus photography, were interviewed for adult lifetime sunlight exposure, and gave blood for antioxidant analysis. Blue light exposure was estimated by combining meteorologic and questionnaire data. RESULTS Data on sunlight exposure and antioxidants were available in 101 individuals with neovascular AMD, 2182 with early AMD, and 2117 controls. No association was found between blue light exposure and neovascular or early AMD. Significant associations were found between blue light exposure and neovascular AMD in individuals in the quartile of lowest antioxidant level-vitamin C, zeaxanthin, vitamin E, and dietary zinc-with an odds ratio of about 1.4 for 1 standard deviation unit increase in blue light exposure. Higher odds ratios for blue light were observed with combined low antioxidant levels, especially vitamin C, zeaxanthin, and vitamin E (odds ratio, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-8.9), which were also associated with early stages of AMD. CONCLUSIONS Although it is not possible to establish causality between sunlight exposure and neovascular AMD, our results suggest that people in the general population should use ocular protection and follow dietary recommendations for the key antioxidant nutrients.

Pond biodiversity and habitat loss in the UK

Ponds are common landscape features but have been poorly studied compared to other freshwater habitats in the UK, despite their high frequency of occurrence. In the last century, many ponds have been lost and those that remain face increasing pressure due to agricultural land drainage, pollution and urban development. However, ponds provide important habitats for diverse floral and faunal communities, including a number of rare taxa of conservation interest. This paper examines the biodiversity and wider environmental value of ponds, with particular reference to the aquatic invertebrate and amphibian communities they support, and the adverse impact of anthropogenic activity on their aquatic habitats.

Flow variations and macroinvertebrate community responses in a small groundwater-dominated stream in south east England

Changes in the macroinvertebrate community in response to flow variations in the Little Stour River, Kent, UK, were examined over a 6 year period (1992-1997). This period included the final year of the 1988-1992 drought, followed by some of the wettest conditions recorded this century and a second period of drought between 1996 and 1997. Each year, samples were collected from 15 sites during late-summer base-flow conditions. Correspondence analysis identified clear differences between samples from upstream and downstream sites, and between drought and non-drought years. Step-wise multiple regression was used to identify hydrological indicators of community variation. Several different indices were used to describe the macroinvertebrate community, including macroinvertebrate community abundance, number of families and species, and individual species. Site characteristics were fundamental in accounting for variation in the unstandardized macroinvertebrate community. However, when differences between sites were controlled, hydrological conditions were found to play a dominant role in explaining ecological variation. Indices of high discharge (or their absence), 4-7 months prior to sampling (i.e. winter-spring), were found to be the most important variables for describing the late-summer community. The results are discussed in relation to the role of flow variability in shaping instream communities and management implications.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on International Tourism

Global temperatures rose by over 0.5°C during the 20th century and current estimates suggest that they will continue to rise at between 0.2 and 0.3°C per decade during the course of the 21st century. This increasing trend towards warmer temperatures could have major consequences for the tourism industry, which is heavily dependent on present climatic and environmental conditions. The ecosystems of many international holiday destinations are potentially vulnerable to climate change. This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change for ten international tourist destinations. The most serious impacts will result from the effects of sea-level rise on small island states. Other impacts likely to affect tourism include coral bleaching, outbreaks of fire, changed migration patterns of animals and birds, flooding, the spread of vector-borne diseases and shorter skiing seasons. Without appropriate adaptive measures, climate change could produce a shift in the comparative attractiveness of tourist destinations around the globe.

THE IMPACT OF THE ANOMALOUS WEATHER OF 1995 ON THE U.K. ECONOMY

This study assesses selected impacts on tertiary activities of the anomalously hot summer of 1995 and warm period from November 1994 through October 1995 in the U.K. Over this period, the mean Central England temperature was 1.6 °C above the 1961–1990 normal, representing the highest mean 12-month temperature since the start of the Central England temperature record in 1659. The study is distinguished by its breadth of coverage, for it includes tertiary sectors and activities. Although impacts in tertiary activities are often not included in assessments of the potential impacts of climatic change, many of these activities are very important to the U.K. economy, and therefore even a small perturbation in output due to a weather extreme can have significant implications for the economy as a whole. The activities and sectors studied include energy consumption, retailing and manufacturing, construction and buildings, tourism, health, human behaviour, and fires. Both negative and positive impacts were incurred within most sectors. Net positive impacts (to the general public) were found convincingly for energy consumption and health, and clear negative impacts for buildings insurance and fires. Sectors which show clear differences in their response to winter and summer warm anomalies are energy consumption, tourism and health (greater sensitivity to winter anomalies) and buildings insurance and fires (greater sensitivity to summer anomalies). Changes in sensitivity to climate extremes may have occurred over time, and a comparison of impacts of the 1995 anomalous weather with the unusually warm dry period of 1975–1976 is approached for several series.

Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.

Background: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. Objectives: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. Methods: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed’s range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose–response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Results: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041–2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Conclusions: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385–391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173

Climate Impact Assessments

This chapter highlights key climate impacts, hazards and vulnerabilities and associated indicators that have been used to assess current (recent) climate impacts at each of the case-study sites. The aim is to illustrate some of the wide range of information available from individual case studies and highlight common themes that are evident across multiple case-study locations. This is used to demonstrate linkages and sensitivities between the specific climate impacts of relevance for each case-study type (urban, rural and coastal) and the key climate hazards and biogeophysical and social vulnerabilities representing the underlying drivers and site conditions. For some impacts, there are clear, direct links with climate events, such as heat stress and flooding, while for others, such as energy supply and demand, the causal relationships are more indirect, via a cascade of climate, social and economic influences. Water availability and extreme temperatures are common drivers of current climate impacts across all case studies, including, for example, freshwater supply and heat stress for urban populations; irrigation capacity and growing season length for agricultural regions; and saltwater intrusion of aquifers and tourist visitor numbers at coastal locations. At some individual case-study locations, specific impacts, hazards and/or vulnerabilities are observed, such as peri-urban fires in Greater Athens, infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding in Alexandria, groundwater levels in Tel Hadya and vector-borne diseases in the Gulf of Oran. Throughout this chapter, evidence of current climate impacts, hazards and vulnerabilities from each of the case studies is detailed and assessed relative to other case studies. This provides a foundation for considering the wider perspective of the Mediterranean region as a whole, and for providing a context from which to assess consequences of future climate projections and consider suitable adaptation options.

Integration of the Climate Impact Assessments with Future Projections

Climate projections are essential in order to extend the case-study impacts and vulnerability assessments to encompass future climate change. Thus climate-model based indicators for the future (to 2050 and for the A1B emissions scenario) are presented for the climate and atmosphere theme (including indices of temperature and precipitation extreme events), together with biogeophysical and socioeconomic indicators encompassing the other case-study themes. For the latter, the specific examples presented here include peri-urban fires, air pollution, human health risks, energy demand, alien marine species and tourism (attractiveness and socio-economic consequences). The primary source of information about future climate is the set of global and regional model simulations performed as part of CIRCE. These have the main novel characteristic of incorporating a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea including coupling between sea and atmosphere. These projections are inevitably subject to uncertainties relating to unpredictability, model structural uncertainty and value uncertainty. These uncertainties are addressed by taking a multi-model approach, but problems remain, for example, due to a systematic cold bias in the CIRCE models. In the context of the case-study integrated assessments, there are also uncertainties ‘downstream’ of climate modeling and the construction of climate change projections – largely relating to the modeling of impacts. In addition, there are uncertainties associated with all socio-economic projections used in the case studies – such as population projections. Thus there are uncertainties inherent to all stages of the integrated assessments and it is important to consider all these aspects in the context of adaptation decision making.

Synthesis and the Assessment of Adaptation Measures

The final stage of the CIRCE case-studies integrated assessment involved identification and evaluation of the effectiveness of local and regional adaptation options in collaboration with stakeholders, and in the context of wider national adaptation policies and strategies. This stage provides a synthesis of both the case-study work and the wider CIRCE project since it draws on the case-study indicators for present and future periods together with wider CIRCE work on adaptation options, particularly in the thematic areas of agriculture, forestry and ecosystems, and Mediterranean communities. This synthesis and evaluation links impacts and vulnerability with adaptation, and also benefits strongly from the local stakeholder workshops held towards the end of the project. Lessons learnt and key messages from the CIRCE case studies are presented. While the objectives of the CIRCE case studies have generally been achieved, a number of research gaps and needs remain.

Modifiable Risk Factors for Common Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) Allergy and Disease in Children: A Case-Control Study

Ragweed allergy is a major public health concern. Within Europe, ragweed is an introduced species and research has indicated that the amounts of ragweed pollen are likely to increase over Europe due to climate change, with corresponding increases in ragweed allergy. To address this threat, improving our understanding of predisposing factors for allergic sensitisation to ragweed and disease is necessary, specifically focusing upon factors that are potentially modifiable (i.e., environmental). In this study, a total of 4013 children aged 2–13 years were recruited across Croatia to undergo skin prick tests to determine sensitisation to ragweed and other aeroallergens. A parental questionnaire collected home environment, lifestyle, family and personal medical history, and socioeconomic information. Environmental variables were obtained using Geographical Information Systems and data from nearby pollen, weather, and air pollution stations. Logistic regression was performed (clustered on school) focusing on risk factors for allergic sensitisation and disease. Ragweed sensitisation was strongly associated with ragweed pollen at levels over 5000 grains m–3 year−1 and, above these levels, the risk of sensitisation was 12–16 times greater than in low pollen areas with about 400 grains m–3 year−1. Genetic factors were strongly associated with sensitisation but nearly all potentially modifiable factors were insignificant. This included measures of local land use and proximity to potential sources of ragweed pollen. Rural residence was protective (odds ratio (OR) 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55–0.98), but the factors underlying this association were unclear. Being sensitised to ragweed doubled (OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.59–2.96) the risk of rhinoconjunctivitis. No other potentially modifiable risk factors were associated with rhinoconjunctivitis. Ragweed sensitisation was strongly associated with ragweed pollen, and sensitisation was significantly associated with rhinoconjunctivitis. Apart from ragweed pollen levels, few other potentially modifiable factors were significantly associated with ragweed sensitisation. Hence, strategies to lower the risk of sensitisation should focus upon ragweed control.