Maurice D. Van Arsdol

Patterns of City Growth

Residential construction is proposed as the mechanism whereby city-wide population growth is translated into population redistribution from mature to relatively undeveloped areas. Cohort analysis of Los Angeles residential areas indicates that the rapidity of redistribution varies directly with both the rate iof population growth and the ratio of new dwellings to incremental population. The accelerted redistribution in the immediate postwar period, coupled with the maturity of central cities and the rigidity of their corporate limits, resulted in the so-called flight to the suburbs.

Retrospective and subsequent metropolitan residential mobility

ResumenEn enfoque de la investigadión en EU sobre movilidad residencial ha consistido principalmente en una integración de perspectivas demográjicas y psicologicas sociales del mismo tipo del que ha sido usado en el estudio de la fertilidad humana. Este artículo combina datos sobre movilidad retrospectiva y subsecuenteobtenidos por medio de una muestra al azar del area de Los Angeles para demostrar que un plan de movilidad expresado en el pasado, elegida su secuencia de actualización es congruente con subsecuentes cambios de domicilio.Primero, nosotros hicimos comparaciones de planes de movilidad con un criteria de medida de subsecuente movilidad, manteniendo controles por ciclo de vida-etapas. Segundo, nosotros usamos planes de movilidad, elección, y conducta subsecuente para construir tipologias de “moviles” y “estables” definidos en terminos de anticipación de movilidad, cumplimiento y conducta. Tercero, nosoteros comparamos anteriores mudanzas con planes y elecciones, las cuales son luego constrastadas con movilidad subsecuente. Movilidad anterior, planes, eleccion, y el ciclo de vida de la familia responden por aproximadamente el 80 por ciento de las posibles variaciones en tasa de movilidad para el distrito metropolitano de Los Angeles. Para las definiciones de tiempo y medida utilizadas, la mayor contribución relativa a las tasas de movilidad son hechas por plan y elección, pero las mas notables diferencias de tasas son observadas cuando la experiencia es tomada en cuenta. Experiencia de movilidad lleva a una mayor probabilidad de un plan y eleccion de mudarse, y a una crecienie probabilidad de realizar esas metas.La analogía con investigaciones de fertilidad sugiere que futuros estudios de movilidad residencial necesitan incorporar conceptos psicologicos sociales con el foco en historia de migración, cadena de Markov, análisis de Cohortes, tablas de expectativas de migración, y técnicas de conexión de población a traves del tiempo. Esas investigacionesvan a indicar con más claridad como la actualización de planes o elecciones lleva a la población en diferentes canales de movilidad o estabilidad.SummaryThe focus of United States residential mobility research on either past or future moves has hindered an integration of demographic and social psychological perspectives of the type that have been used in the study of human fertility. This paper combines retrospective and subsequent mobility data obtained from a Los Angeles area probability sample to demonstrate that a past mobility—choice, plan—actualization sequence is congruent with subsequent moves.First, comparisons are made of mobility plans and choices with subsequent mobility, controlling for life cycle stages. Second, mobility plan, choice, and subsequent behavior are used to construct a typology of “movers” and “stayers” defined in terms of mobility anticipation, fulfillment, and behavior. Third, past moves are compared with plan and choice, which are then contrasted with subsequent mobility. Past mobility, plan, choice, and the life cycle account for approximately 80 percent of the possible subsequent mobility-rate variation for the Los Angeles metropolis. For the time period and indexes, the greatest relative contributions to subsequent mobility rates are made by plan and choice, but striking rate differences are observed when past behavior is taken into account. Mobility experiences lead to a likelihood of a plan and choice to move, and increase possibilities of realizing these goals.An analogy with fertility research suggests that future studies of residential mobility need to incorporate social psychological concepts with the current focus on migration histories, Markov chains, cohort analyses, migration expectancy tables, and techniques of linking populations over time. Demographers must extend both their theoretical and statistical apparatus in order fully to account for residence changes. Such research should indicate more clearly how actualizing plans or choices leads populations into different mobility or stability channels.

An Application of the Shevky Social Area Indexes to a Model of Urban Society

The equations of model (4) were also estimated by the regular least-squares technique. The following parameters, together with the standard errors of regression coefficients, were found as shown in equation below. The levels of significance of the parameters are not high: a12 and b23 are significant at the 0.01 level, while bi1, a2i, b32, and bm are significant at the 0.05 level. All other parameter estimates failed to meet even the 0.05 requirement. The correlation coefficients, the standard errors of estimate, and the levels of significance are given in the following table:

An Investigation of the Utility of Urban Typology

theory of crime and criminal behavior, given the present state of sociological and psychological theory. The comparative research reported here constitutes a first step in the necessarily complex task of formulating and testing special etiological principles for specific types of criminal behavior. The empirical data, both quantitative and qualitative, demonstrate clearly that the armed robbers differ in kind and degree from other criminal types in terms of theoretically relevant social and psychological background factors.

Residential History and Educational Status of Delinquents and Nondelinquents

The feasibility of the records matching approach is examined with data pertaining to the interrelations of residential mobility, educational status, and juvenile delinquency. Findings are reported by race and sex for comparisons of approximately 7,000 delinquent and 325,000 general population youth 14-17 years of age. Recent mobility was not systematically associated with delinquency; educational status was directly related to delinquency; and little interaction was observed between the mobility variables or between mobility and educational status.

Redistribution and assimilation of ethnic populations: The Los Angeles case

Redistribution relative to metropolitan growth of Negro, other non-white and Spanish name populations is examined in Los Angeles County from 1940 to 1960 for a comparable grid of subareas. The subareas are defined relative to their maturity at different time points in order to partially control for population redistribution effects of neighborhood life histories, the spread of older subareas, and the persistence of neighborhood patterns. Shifts in ethnic concentration are shown for both older and newer subareas. Concurrent changes in neighborhood social structures and ethnic populations are described. Findings are categorized under three themes: First, ethnic population increments and redistribution were generally restricted to expanding older subareas. Ethnic populations did not spatially expand at a rate equal to the spread of the metropolis or of older subareas. Second, segregation is greater in both older and newer neighborhoods for Negroes than for other ethnic populations. Negroes experienced the largest proportional increments in both older and newer subareas, as well as the greatest stability in subarea occupancy. Finally, the spatial separation of ethnic populations impedes assimilation in that unique patterns of neighborhood structure come to characterize different ethnic populations, and changes in ethnic composition are reflected in changes in neighborhood social structures.